Don’t look now, but the NFL regular season is over 10% done. So far, the 2024 fantasy season has two themes: bad offenses and injuries. Despite the Saints doing their best to single-handedly carry the league, NFL teams are averaging just 21.4 points per game pending Monday Night Football, which would be the lowest mark since 2006 if maintained for the whole season. Meanwhile, it feels like a miracle to see a fantasy roster unscathed by injuries. With all that in mind, let’s take a look at some smaller trends with big fantasy implications from Fantasy Football Week 2.
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Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 2
1. Will The Saints Ever Score Below 40 Points Again?
Undeniably the biggest story of the week is the Saints following up their destruction of the Panthers by dominating the Cowboys. Clearly, Week 1 wasn’t a fluke. Klint Kubiak has taken New Orleans’ offense from one of the most archaic in the league to one of the most effective, utilizing tons of motion and play-action.
All these real-life points come with fantasy goodness. Derek Carr is the QB2 overall with back-to-back 21-point games. He is absolutely worth adding in all formats. Alvin Kamara won’t score four touchdowns every week but should be able to maintain top five production. Rashid Shaheed is a weekly starter.
Ironically, Chris Olave, the highest-drafted Saint coming into this year, has had very mediocre results. But he is still the team’s top receiver in terms of usage, including a 37.5-percent target share on Sunday. The big games will come for Olave with this offense humming on all cylinders, and he is an excellent buy-low candidate if his current manager is frustrated post fantasy football Week 2.
2. It’s Time to Worry About Sam LaPorta
A great rule of thumb for finding elite fantasy tight ends is that they have to be one of their team’s top two targets. Truly elite tight ends will often be their team’s top target. Through two weeks, Sam LaPorta is fourth on the Lions in targets, with eight in total.
Sam LaPorta Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
This could just be a small sample issue, but I see no reason to predict LaPorta moving back up to among the top two options on this team. Amon-Ra St. Brown is obviously a target machine, and Jameson Williams‘ breakout looks legit (he is an excellent buy-high candidate, by the way). LaPorta will likely finish the season with more targets than Jahmyr Gibbs, but Gibbs will obviously still be heavily involved in the receiving game.
LaPorta should still provide TE1 numbers. But without consistent volume, he’s looking more like a backend TE1 who will rely on touchdowns (which he should still score plenty of) than the elite TE he was drafted as.
3. Training Camp Matters, Apparently
Through two weeks, Brandon Aiyuk and Ja’Marr Chase have combined for a grand total of 24.8 Half-PPR points. It’s not just a production issue, either, as both players have posted PFF Receiving Grades over 20 points below their career averages. There’s an obvious culprit for these struggles, as both WRs missed essentially the entire preseason due to contract disputes.
However, this is not a long-term problem. These are still two of the best young receivers in the league, and they will eventually play themselves into shape. In fact, if you have started hot, it may be worth attempting to pry them away from their current managers (who have likely started cold). If you can deal with a few weeks of lackluster performances, trading for Aiyuk and Chase now should pay off down the stretch.
4. Jerome Ford’s Week 1 Usage Was a Mirage
Ford saw excellent usage in all phases of the game in Week 1. He played a career-high 75-percent snap share, posted an 86-percent RB rush share, and even saw seven targets. With that usage, he would have been a weekly RB2 candidate. Meanwhile, Foreman, who had technically recently joined the team but had been with them all preseason, played just one snap.
However, Ford was outcarried 14 to seven by D’Onta Foreman on Sunday. In fact, it was Foreman, not Ford, who got the start and took the first few carries of the game. Ford did still play five more snaps than the journeyman veteran, but this offense isn’t good enough to support two fantasy-relevant running backs. Foreman is worth adding, but both players should be kept on benches until further notice.
5. Jaylen Warren’s Week 1 Usage Was Injury-Related
In Week 1, things looked very bad for Warren, who finished with a 31-percent snap share and the same amount of touches as Cordarrelle Patterson. However, after Week 2, it’s clear that his limited usage was due to the hamstring injury he suffered in preseason.
This week, Warren’s usage picked up dramatically. He saw nine carries to Najee Harris‘ 17, picking up 42 yards on the ground. Warren also took the lead on passing downs, seeing two targets on 11 routes (Harris also saw two targets, on eight routes). This is essentially the same usage that Warren turned into an RB25 finish in 2023, so he is back in the flex conversation.
6. The Bryce Young Era Is Already Over
It was reported on Monday that the Panthers will be benching the 2023 No. 1 overall pick in favor of 36-year-old Andy Dalton. Two games into a season is incredibly fast to give up on a 23-year-old quarterback with Young’s pedigree, but his performances have been that bad.
Looking ahead, Dalton played just one game last season. In that game, the Panthers scored 27 points, more than they scored in every game with Young under center except one. In 2022, the last year in which he played significant snaps, Dalton finished No. 6 in the league in PFF Passing Grade. He only has to be not terrible to be an improvement on Young, but the Red Rifle might legitimately still be a solid NFL quarterback.
Assuming Dalton is at least replacement level, this is a huge upgrade for every Panther. Diontae Johnson, who has a 37-percent target share through two games if we only count plays where the Panthers were still within three touchdowns of their opponent, is back in the flex conversation. Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders are still splitting work too evenly to be weekly starters, but the move to Dalton provides some hope for anyone stashing Jonathon Brooks. It’s too early to predict much for anyone else, but this move does take Xavier Legette/Jonathan Mingo/Adam Thielen from un-rosterable to potential bench holds after fantasy football Week 2.
7. Zack Moss’s Role in Cincinnati May Be Better Than Joe Mixon’s Was
Coming into the season, it was unclear whether Zack Moss or Chase Brown would take the lead role in the Bengals’ backfield. However, through two weeks, Moss is clearly the lead back. In fact, Moss has quietly seen very elite usage.
Through two weeks, Moss has a 75-percent RB rush share, a 75-percent snap share, a 51-percent route participation rate, and a 7.7-percent target share. In 2023, Joe Mixon was the Bengals’ lead RB. His numbers in those metrics were 81-percent, 70-percent, 46-percent, and 10.4-percent … and he finished as the Half-PPR RB5. Compared to his predecessor in Cincinnati, Moss is playing more snaps and running more routes. His rush share and target share are both lower, but those are both numbers that should increase in more positive game scripts.
Zack Moss Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Moss’s production so far has been thoroughly mediocre, along with the Bengals’ offense as a whole. But if their offense gets it together, his usage should lead to RB2 production, at least. We can see that he ranks as an RB2 (18th) in both Opportunity Share and snap share; the issue is that the Bengals rank dead last in run plays per game. If you believe in the Bengals’ offense as a whole bouncing back, Moss is an excellent buy-low target post fantasy football Week 2.
8. Hunter Henry Is a Legit TE1
Remember when I said that sometimes truly elite tight ends will serve as their team’s top receiving threat? Well, through two weeks, Hunter Henry is the Patriots’ top target. He ranks No. 1 on the team in each of routes, targets, receptions, and yards … and it’s not even close.
Henry isn’t exactly seeing receiver targets with a 7.0 ADOT, but he is running over half of his routes from either out wide or in the slot. With so many “elite” tight ends either injured or seeing reduced usage, Henry is absolutely worth adding, and he can be plugged right into your lineup if need be. The Patriots should eventually turn to Drake Maye, which could either hurt or help Henry’s value, but that’s a bridge to cross when we come to it. For now, Henry is a weekly TE1.
9. Things Look Scary for Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman
In recent years, guys like Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen have disproven the axiom that rushing quarterbacks are bad for receivers in fantasy football. Through two weeks of this season, Anthony Richardson and Jayden Daniels are bringing it back.
Richardson, in particular, has been incredibly inconsistent, with a 49-percent completion rate that is 9.1-percent below expectation. Correspondingly, Pittman, who has a career 68-percent catch rate and 7.4 yards per target, has caught just seven of his 15 targets so far this season for 52 yards (3.5 yards per target).
McLaurin has been similarly inefficient, averaging 3.3 yards on his 12 targets from Jayden Daniels. Even in a juicy matchup with the Giants on Sunday, he finished with just 22 yards on six catches — that’s easily the least productive performance against New York in his career. Until their respective quarterbacks take a step forward, both of these veteran WRs should be left on benches after fantasy football Week 2.
10. Watch Out for Outside Receivers Against the Bills
Every year, there are a couple of defenses that become borderline must-avoids for a certain fantasy position. It’s very early, but so far, the Bills might be one of them. After shutting down Marvin Harrison Jr. in his NFL debut, the Bills allowed just 65 yards combined to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on Thursday. Even crazier, only 21 of those yards (a single catch by Waddle) came on a non-screen reception from an outside alignment.
Overall, through two weeks, the Bills have allowed a grand total of three non-screen receptions for 39 yards to receivers lined up out wide. This may just be a small sample size issue, but it’s worth noting, especially given the caliber of receivers they’ve shut down. Looking ahead to Week 3, Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., who have both run exactly 80-percent of their routes from outside, will likely struggle, while slot-man Christian Kirk could be due for a big day.
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