The fantasy football regular season (assuming playoffs start in Week 15) is now over a quarter finished. Importantly, Week 4 is also the point where in-season performance starts to be similarly predictive of rest of season performance as preseason ADP. Put in simpler terms, what we’ve seen so far is now just as important as what we expected coming into the season. That means it’s time to panic about underperformers, and any early-season breakouts may be for real. Let’s break down the top takeaways from Week 4’s fantasy football usage.
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Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 4
1. Rashee Rice is Out, Travis Kelce Lives?
The biggest news of the week is unfortunately bad news, as Rashee Rice is feared to have suffered a torn ACL. The second-year receiver was in the midst of a massive breakout, and his absence leaves a hole in the Chiefs’ offense.
If we’re looking for a silver lining, that absence seems to have resurrected Travis Kelce‘s fantasy value. Kelce finished Sunday with seven catches on nine targets for 89 yards, which was by far his most productive week of the season. Five of those receptions came after Rice was out, although that’s not too surprising given that Rice exited in the first quarter.
Overall, Kelce posted a 29-percent target per route run rate in Week 3, way up from 15-percent over the first three weeks. His route participation rate also jumped massively, from 69-percent to 91-percent. If Rice is indeed out for the season, Kelce could find his way back to elite tight end production, especially considering the bar is on the floor for the entire position.
2. Dontayvion Wicks is the Waiver Add of the Week
Coming into this year, I was high on Dontayvion Wicks out of this ambiguous Packers wide receiver room full of young talent. The thesis was simple: Wicks was the cheapest member of the group and arguably the most talented. In 2023, he led the Packers’ quartet of young receivers (Wicks, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson) in yards per route run both out wide and in the slot. However, because he was projected to start the season outside the team’s top-three WRs, his ADP was very low — he is currently rostered in under 12-percent of leagues.
Dontayvion Wicks Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile (2023 Efficiency)
Heading into Week 3, Wicks was already on the rise, as he was cutting into Christian Watson‘s routes more each week. Unfortunately, that natural rise was cut short, as Watson exited the game early with an ankle injury. In his absence, Wicks exploded, catching five of 13 targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns.
Including both yesterday’s breakout and the first three weeks, Wicks’ per-route excellence has continued this season. Among players with at least 50 routes, he ranks No. 6 in targets per route run and No. 21 in fantasy points per route run. It’s not yet clear how long Watson will be sidelined, but Wicks is a must-add regardless — he may have played his way into an expanded role even when Watson returns.
3. The Andy Dalton Effect is Legit
Dalton unsurprisingly wasn’t quite able to match his 300 yards and three TDs in his second start, but he was still clearly miles better than Bryce Young, leading the Panthers to 24 points against the Bengals. After two starts, Dalton now ranks No. 5 in the NFL in EPA per dropback.
Even more importantly from a fantasy football standpoint, Dalton is feeding the Panthers’ weapons. Pending Monday Night Football, Diontae Johnson has had back-to-back top-10 WR finishes under Dalton, while Chuba Hubbard has done the same for RBs. Rookie WR Xavier Legette also had a breakout performance on Sunday, totaling 76 yards and a touchdown on eight combined touches. All of these players move way up the rankings as long as Dalton is under center. So does rookie RB Jonathon Brooks, although his recovery from a college ACL injury seems to be moving slowly.
4. Josh Downs Return with a Bang
In his second game back from a preseason ankle injury, Downs racked up eight receptions on nine targets for 82 yards and a touchdown. He currently ranks as the Half-PPR WR8 on the week.
Of course, the huge lingering question is whether Downs’ big week would have happened if Anthony Richardson was under center. His fellow sophomore left the Colts’ Week 3 game in the first quarter with a hip injury, which is reportedly minor. All but one of Downs’ receptions came from veteran backup Joe Flacco.
While he is the backup, Flacco may actually be better than Richardson and his 29-percent off-target throw percentage for the Colts’ receivers’ fantasy values. With this in mind, I wouldn’t rush to stick Downs in your lineups, but he is absolutely worth adding in the over 85-percent of leagues where he is available.
5. The Old Justin Fields is Back … Good and Bad
Through the first three weeks of the season, Justin Fields was a completely different quarterback. Although he still used his legs frequently, the former Bear was, for all intents and purposes, a game-manager. Fields led the Steelers to a 3-0 record thanks to avoiding negative plays (two sacks in each game and just one turnover total) while averaging just 14 fantasy points per game.
In Week 4, Fields brought back the fantasy upside he showed in Chicago, finishing as the QB1 on the week thanks to 300 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns. He also fumbled twice (one lost) and was sacked four times in Pittsburgh’s first loss of the season. His 64.7-percent completion percentage was his worst of the season, as was his 10.5-percent sack rate.
What this means for fantasy is unclear. Fields out of game-manager mode would certainly be good for his week-to-week production. But his leash as the Steelers’ starter is likely pretty short — after all, Russell Wilson is still technically listed as the starter on Pittsburgh’s depth chart. As long as he can hold the Steelers’ starting job, Fields will likely provide QB1 production as he has to do more in closer game scripts.
6. Tucker Kraft is a Light of Hope in the TE Wasteland
I pointed out after Week 1 that Kraft was clearly the Packers’ top tight end ahead of Luke Musgrave. However, with Jordan Love sidelined, Kraft didn’t do much in the next two weeks. That changed this week, as he caught six of nine targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. For any other position, that’s a solid but unspectacular week. At tight end, that’s enough to rank Kraft in the top 10 … for the SEASON.
Looking at Kraft’s other metrics through four weeks, his 64.4-percent route participation rate still isn’t ideal. That ranks him No. 20 among tight ends, after names like Johnny Mundt and Theo Johnson (but still ahead of Dalton Kincaid and Mark Andrews). Kraft does rank slightly better on a per-route basis, with 1.49 yards per route run landing him No. 14 among qualified TEs.
Obviously, these numbers aren’t exactly jumping off the page. Still, as an involved pass-catcher on an efficient offense, Kraft is absolutely worth adding. If he can expand his role slightly, he could suddenly find himself as one of just a handful of consistent options at the position.
7. We Have Found the Next Puka Nacua (Not Really)
With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined, I have consistently backed Demarcus Robinson as the Rams receiver to target. The nine-year NFL vet brings minimal upside, but he consistently led the team in routes. However, that changed this week. Jordan Whittington, a sixth-round rookie out of Texas who generated a fair amount of buzz in training camp, led the Rams with an 87.5-percent route participation rate. He saw eight targets on those routes, catching six for 62 yards.
Obviously, that production is still nothing to write home about. But, in an offense lacking its top two targets, we need to chase upside. Whittington provides much more upside than known quantities like Robinson, Tutu Atwell, and Tyler Johnson. Especially with recent news indicating that both Kupp and Nacua are weeks from returning, the rookie is worth stashing in deeper leagues.
8. Bijan & Breece Aren’t Bell-Cows
After Christian McCaffrey, the next tier of running backs in fantasy drafts this offseason consisted of two young studs in Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. Four weeks into the season, both are trending in the wrong direction.
Hall managed a grand total of four yards on 10 attempts despite a theoretically positive matchup with the Broncos. His backup, rookie Braelon Allen, picked up 34 yards on eight carries. For the season, Allen has outperformed Hall in very measure of rushing efficiency … and his share of the attempts just keeps trending up. Hall has seen elite usage in the receiving game, ranking No. 1 among all RBs with 23 targets. But he’ll be hard-pressed to return truly top-tier numbers if his rushing production keeps slipping.
Robinson, meanwhile, has yet to produce a top 12 weekly finish. He also ceded work to a more efficient backfield mate this week, as Tyler Allgeier carried the ball one more time for 32 extra yards. It’s not panic stations for Robinson, either, as he still ranks No. 11 in expected fantasy points for the season … but nobody pays a first-round pick for the RB11. Both backs are currently trending closer to backend RB1 or even high-end RB2 production than elite fantasy ceilings.
9. Bucky Irving is Coming for ALL of Rachaad White’s Job
I’ve gone from high on Bucky Irving after Week 1 to urging caution heading into Week 4. While he has clearly been the better pure rusher than Rachaad White since the second he stepped on an NFL field, Irving’s usage in other facets of the game hadn’t been great. In Weeks 1-3, he handled zero of the team’s 12 snaps within the 10-yard line and has just a 19-percent route participation rate. Goal-line and receiving-down work are key to a running back’s fantasy value, and Irving was unlikely to reach fantasy relevance on rushing efficiency alone.
However, that changed in Week 4. The rookie played eight of Tampa’s 12 snaps within the 10, including handling all three carries inside the five-yard line. He also posted a new career-high 26-percent route participation rate, although he caught just one of two targets. White’s fantasy value has never been more dead, while Irving now has legit flex appeal, at least.
10. The Commanders Are Cooking
It’s unclear if Jayden Daniels is simply already a top five quarterback in the league, Kliff Kingsbury has been unfairly maligned, or both. But the Commanders are on absolute fire to start this season. They are second to only the Bills in EPA per play, nearly double the third-place Saints. They are also fourth in both total yards and yards per play, as well as third in points scored.
Obviously, this has already translated into fantasy goodness for Jayden Daniels, who is the QB1 in fantasy points so far and arguably belongs there in rest of season rankings. Brain Robinson, also, ranks as a top 10 RB. And you’re not going to be able to get Terry McLaurin for cheap after his big performances over the last two weeks. However, a rising tide lifts all boats, and the rest of the Commanders’ offensive pieces may still be undervalued. In deep leagues, it’s worth kicking the tires on guys like Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler, and Luke McCaffrey. The fact that Jeremy McNichols just scored 20 fantasy points is a sign of the fact that simply being on the field for this offense is a valuable thing.
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