Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 5: Tank Bigsby Lives Up to His Name

by Ted Chmyz · Fantasy Football

Week 5 is officially in the books, and it was another wild ride for fantasy football. Offense is picking up around the league after a slow start to the season, but we also saw a shocking number of defensive TDs (six) on Sunday. Without further ado, let’s get right into the top fantasy football usage takeaways from fantasy football Week 5.

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Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 5

1. Tank Bigsby Cannot Be Denied

After Week 1, I mentioned both Tank Bigsby and Bucky Irving as young running backs outperforming their veteran teammates. However, I was much more optimistic about Irving who could take advantage of the fact that White has been arguably the least efficient running back in the league over the last few years. Stealing significant work from Travis Etienne would be harder … or so I thought.

What I didn’t see coming is that Bigsby is now playing like arguably the best running back in the league. According to NextGenStats, he leads the league with an absolutely monstrous 4.19 yards over expected per attempt. He’s also first in yards after contact per attempt by a mile at 5.82.  He also ranks third among RBs in both PFF Grade and missed tackles forced per attempt. A lot of these numbers are skewed by big plays, so his absurd (again, league-leading) 76.1-percent breakaway rate is doing some heavy lifting … but he’s earning those big plays.

Even more importantly, Bigsby’s workload keeps expanding. This week, he saw more carries than Travis Etienne for the first time, and it wasn’t close, 13 to six. Etienne still saw more snaps (42-percent to 37-percent) and far more targets (seven to one), but Bigsby did see both of the team’s attempts inside the 10-yard line.

Now, it is worth noting that Etienne is dealing with a shoulder injury. Doug Pederson also firmly rejected the possibility that Bigbsy would pass up Etienne on the depth chart. But if Bigsby keeps playing like this, that can’t last. 

2. Dontayvion Wicks Szn is Confusing

Coming into Week 5, many fantasy analysts, myself included, were expecting big things from Dontayvion Wicks. The sophomore receiver had elite per-route numbers as a rookie, racked up 13 targets last week, and looked set to play a full set of snaps with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both sidelined.

The results were mixed, to say the least. Wicks did tie for the team lead with six targets (a 22-percent share) and posted an elite 44-percent air yards share. But he finished with just two catches for 20 yards, dropping two passes and failing to connect a few more times. He also posted just a 62.1-percent route participation rate, the same as Malik Heath (Note: Route participation data is from Fantasy Points Data, PFF has him just behind Jayden Reed at 83-percent.)

For the season, Wicks now easily leads the Packers in both targets per route run (31-percent) and drop rate (21-percent). Of those two, I lean towards target-earning being a stickier stat than drops. However, there is some risk that consistent drop issues, especially at this level, will result in Wicks’ role being reduced as Watson and/or Doubs return. He’s more of a hold than a player to actively target in trades post fantasy football Week 5.

3. Mark Andrews Isn’t Back

Andrews showed signs of life on Sunday, catching his first pass since Week 2 and finishing with four receptions on five targets for 55 yards. He even could have had a walk-in touchdown if Lamar Jackson hadn’t underthrown him slightly on the goal line. 

However, Andrews still posted just a 49-percent route participation rate. That’s a trend in the right direction, as he was below 30-percent in each of the previous two weeks, but it’s still his third straight week below 50-percent. There is not a single pass-catcher in the league who can be trusted on a weekly basis on less than 50-percent route participation. If you can combine Andrews’ name value with this “big” game to get literally anything from him in a trade, do it. Otherwise, he’s still droppable in shallow leagues.

4. Ja’Lynn Polk is Ready for Drake Maye

Only three receivers played 100-percent of their team’s offensive snaps in Week 5: D.K. Metcalf (sure), Allen Lazard (lol), and Ja’Lynn Polk. Unsurprisingly, Polk also easily led the Patriots with 32 routes.  The rookie also saw six targets (17.6-percent share), although he caught just one for 13 yards. He posted a solid 34.9-percent air yards share and missed out on an end zone catch by inches.

Right now, Polk still can’t be put into fantasy lineups. He may be the Patriots’ WR1, but that’s not a role that is generating fantasy production. However, things may be changing in New England. If (when) the second-overall pick does take over, Polk could become a real fantasy asset. 

Of course, there’s a chance that this situation is bad enough that Maye cannot elevate this offense, or it could be that Maye himself isn’t that good. But it was just last year that everyone was calling the Texans a terrible situation for a rookie quarterback with no good receiver talent, and we saw how that turned out. Now that he’s playing an elite role, it’s worth stashing Polk in case Maye can turn things around quickly. 

5. Don’t Overreact to Atlanta’s Big Day

Most weeks of the season there is one team that posts an outlier number of pass attempts. Usually, this results in all of their offensive weapons eating, which in turn causes fantasy managers to chase the points and targets. This week, that was Atlanta, as Kirk Cousins attempted a massive 58 passes in an overtime win, the most of any player so far this season.

As a result, all of the Falcons’ pass-catchers ate. Drake London and Darnell Mooney were the WR2 and WR3 on the week (pending Monday Night Football). Khadarel Hodge played an 18-percent snap share and finished as a top 20 WR. Ray-Ray McCloud saw nine targets. Even Kyle Pitts had a good week, catching seven of eight targets for 88 yards.  

In situations like this, the key is to look at target share, not total targets. For the Falcons this week, Mooney led the way at 27.1-percent, followed by London at 22.0-percent, McCloud at 15.3-percent, and Pitts at 13.6-percent. 

There are lots of potential takeaways from this (Mooney is legit, London’s breakout is being a bit overhyped), but the most important is clear: Kyle Pitts is not back. His target share was barely higher than his season average of 11.8-percent. That 13.6-percent number would land just No. 16 for the season, barely ahead of Tyler Conklin (13.2-percent) and ex-Falcon Jonnu Smith (13.0-percent). If you can move Pitts based on this game’s performance, do it. 

6. Blake Corum is Finally the Rams’ RB2

Coming into the season, there was some hype that Corum, a third-round rookie out of Michigan, would push Kyren Williams for the Rams’ starting role. Obviously, that hasn’t happened. Williams continues to see elite usage, while Corum played zero offensive snaps in three of the first four weeks. In fact, Corum wasn’t even the Rams’ second option, as Ronnie Rivers was called on to spell Kyren more often.

However, Corum seems to have passed up Rivers. On Sunday, it was Rivers who didn’t play a single offensive snap, while the rookie played 11, carrying the ball five times and catching his only target. The hope that Corum would ever take Kyren’s job is still essentially dead, but this change does make him a top-tier handcuff. He’s worth holding, depending on your team’s situation and league format. 

7. Tyrone Tracy Jr. Looks Great

Speaking of rookie running backs, fifth-round pick Tyrone Tracy had a breakout game with Devin Singletary sidelined by a groin injury. He carried the ball 18 times for 129 yards, also catching one of two targets for one receiving yard. The college receiver was consistently efficient on the ground, ranking No. 2 in the league for the week in terms of Next Gen Stats’ success rate at 61.1-percent and posting 2.6 yards over expected per carry.

Sophomore RB Eric Gray was also involved, playing the majority of passing downs. He also handled all three of the team’s goal-line attempts (he did fumble his third attempt, which was then returned for a touchdown by the Seahawks’ defense, so perhaps Tracy will get a shot going forward). The two running backs both posted a 28.2-percent route participation rate, although Gray saw twice as many targets (four to two). 

Looking forward, it’s unclear when Singletary will return. The veteran was having a solid season prior to his injury, so Tracy will not just walk into the lead role. Still, Singletary is by no means one of the league’s most entrenched running backs. Tracy having a game like this is absolutely worth noting, and he is worth holding even if Singletary is on track to return in Week 6.

8. Jalen Tolbert is Here to Stay

Tolbert had already surpassed Brandin Cooks as the Cowboys’ WR2, but the veteran heading to IR following surgery on an infected knee made things even clearer. In his first game with Cooks out, Tolbert racked up seven catches on a team-high 10 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. 

Looking forward, Tolbert will compete with Jake Ferguson to be Dak Prescott‘s second-favorite target behind CeeDee Lamb. The tight end missed Week 2 with an injury but leads Tolbert in both targets per route run (27% vs. 17%) and yards per route run (2.04 vs. 1.52) by a decent margin. However, Tolbert sees more down-the-field usage, with a solid 24-percent team air yards share, which should only increase with Cooks sidelined. With the Cowboys No. 4 in the league in pass rate, he’s worth adding in all formats.

9. Who Knows What the Browns Are Doing

Deshaun Watson now only ranks ahead of Bryce Young (benched), two Dolphins backups, and Will Levis (benched) in EPA per dropback. However, Kevin Stefanski was clear that the Browns are not changing quarterbacks going forward. As a result, it’s impossible to trust anyone in Cleveland’s passing offense. Even Amari Cooper, who ranks No. 8 in the league in target share and No. 3 in air yards share, has had just one week in the top 40 half-PPR receivers.   

Meanwhile, the Browns’ RB usage is just as inexplicable. In Weeks 1, 3, and 4, Jerome Ford has been the team’s clear lead back, with a 77.9-percent snap share and 80-percent RB rush share. During Weeks 2 and 5, those numbers are just 50-percent and 39-percent. In those two weeks, Cleveland has started and leaned on D’Onta Foreman, who was essentially a non-factor in the other three weeks. 

Ford still tied Foreman with nine carries this week and led the team’s RBs in routes and targets; he doesn’t disappear in Foreman’s starting weeks the same way Foreman does in his. However, with the Browns’ offensive struggles, and the fact that his role has now been cut in half twice with absolutely no warning, Ford is a very risky start each week. With Nick Chubb‘s return around the corner, this backfield could get even more messy going forward. 

10. The Seahawks Are Here to Throw

In a season where 23 of 32 teams rank below zero in pass rate vs. expectation (per nfelo), Seattle leads the league with a pass rate 6.8-percent above expectation. This was especially clear on Sunday, as Geno Smith dropped back 50 times compared to just seven designed rushing attempts for the team combined. This wasn’t a game script thing, either, as the Seahawks were either leading or within one score for all but one of their offensive drives. 

For the season, the Seahawks rank No. 2 with a 65.9-percent pass rate on early downs in non-garbage time (per rbsdm.com). This is also the right call, as they have positive EPA on passing plays and negative EPA on rushing plays (according to both nfelo and rbsdm’s models). 

For fantasy purposes, this philosophy is obviously an upgrade to Geno Smith and the Seahawks’ passing options. It’s also likely a downgrade for Kenneth Walker, but that’s less obvious. After all, passing more means more efficiency which means more red zone carries, and Walker did see eight targets on Sunday. With elite usage in both the rushing and receiving games, this shouldn’t impact Walker too much, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. 

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