These are the Top 10 Takeaways from Fantasy Football Week 9!
Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 9
1. Chase Brown Could Be a League-Winner
Chase Brown entered the season as the clear second fiddle in the Bengals’ backfield behind Zack Moss. But the explosive sophomore slowly increased his role across the first eight weeks, eventually claiming a 1A role over the veteran. Then this week, Moss was ruled out with a neck injury, and that all went out the window.
Brown played 83-percent of the Bengals’ offensive snaps, handled all 27 of their RB rush attempts, and saw a 13-percent target share (five targets) on a 49-percent route participation rate. That’s incredibly elite usage, and he turned it into 24.2 Half-PPR points.
Moss is reportedly out indefinitely and will likely be headed to IR, meaning we are wheels up for Brown to dominate the Bengals’ backfield going forward. To throw a tiny bit of cold water on my own hype, it’s worth noting that Brown is likely never going to be trusted with pass-protection reps. He had just five pass-blocking attempts all season heading into this week, and he still saw just three on Sunday with Moss sidelined and posted an absolutely putrid 14.1 PFF Pass Blocking Grade. Cincinnati Head Coach Zac Taylor did mention on Monday that the Bengals will be looking into adding to their running back room. If they do add to their RB depth, it will likely be in the form of a third-down pass-blocking specialist, which would cut into Brown’s receiving role.
NOTE: This was written before the Bengals traded for Khalil Herbert.
With that said, Brown is now essentially locked into a workhorse role in this valuable backfield. Moss may return, but out indefinitely with a neck injury is not a promising prognosis. Brown could provide legit RB1 numbers the rest of the way.
2. De’Von Achane is the Dolphins’ WR2 (At Least)
This take goes two ways. It’s absolutely great news for Achane, who has averaged a 21-percent target share (7.25 targets per game) in the four games played by Tua Tagovailoa. Thanks largely to that absurd receiving workload, he has scored 24.3 Half-PPR points per game in those four games which would rank him as the RB1 by a mile for the season. As long as this continues, Achane is at minimum a top-five RB in all formats.
But it’s terrible news for Jaylen Waddle, who is all the way down at a 12-percent target share (4.25 targets per game) with Tua under center. I do think that number, as well as Waddle’s 8.3 Half-PPR points per game, should improve somewhat going forward. But it’s undeniable that Achane’s massive receiving usage (plus the emergence of Jonnu Smith) is cutting into Waddle’s volume. If we include the non-Tua games for a larger sample size, Waddle is at a more respectable 15-percent target share, but that’s still way down from 22-percent in 2023 and 20-percent in 2022. He’s more of a boom-or-bust flex play with this usage than the weekly WR2 managers were hoping for. (Tyreek Hill is also way down from his historical target share averages, but let’s not get into that just yet…)
3. The Titans Stick With Condensed Wide Receiver Usage
Last week, I mentioned that both Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine posted elite 93-percent route participation rates in Week 8. This was a dramatic change for Tennessee’s offense, which had previously used a WR-by-committee approach. This week, they did it again. Ridley actually improved to a 94-percent participation rate, while NWI posted a still-elite 92-percent rate.
Unsurprisingly, having the same two receivers on the field for essentially every passing play condensed Tennesse’s receiving production. Ridley (24-percent) and Westbrook-Ikhine (18-percent) combined to earn 42-percent of the Titans’ targets, as well as 67-percent of the team’s air yards (46-percent for Ridley and 21-percent for NWI). They both finished with solid fantasy lines, as NWI caught five passes for 50 yards and a touchdown while Ridley finished with five receptions for 73 yards of his own. Together, they accounted for just over half of Mason Rudolph‘s 240 passing yards.
As long as the Titans continue this new highly condensed route distribution, Ridley and NWI both get huge fantasy boosts. Ridley is a weekly WR3 option, while Westbrook-Ikhine (who has scored a TD in each of his past four games) goes from complete irrelevance to the flex conversation.
4. Jameis Comes Back to Earth Immediately
I was expecting Jameis Winston to disappoint some people after taking advantage of a terrible Ravens secondary (and getting a way with a few terrible decisions) in his first start, but even I didn’t expect things to fall apart quite so fast. Winston finished with six sacks and three interceptions and led the Browns to just 10 points in a truly Deshaun Watson-esque performance.
On the bright side, Winston still threw for 235 yards, more than Watson managed in any game this year. That converted into another great day for Cedric Tillman (16.5 Half-PPR points) and an okay day for the forgotten man Jerry Jeudy (10.8 Half-PPR points). Unfortunately, David Njoku and Elijah Moore weren’t so lucky, both finishing under six fantasy points.
Going forward, I think this is a more realistic expectation for the Browns’ offense under Winston than what we saw in Week 8. Tillman, who continues to post absolutely elite usage numbers, may be able to provide consistent production. However, the others (Jeudy, Njoku, and Moore) may be more inconsistent from week to week depending on matchups and who happens to get the good Winston targets instead of the bad ones.
5. Diontae Johnson’s Ravens Debut
Obviously, we can’t take too much from a debut game in which Johnson was definitely on a snap count. However, there are some interesting things to note. For one, Diontae ran all six of his routes from outside. If that trend continues, he will be competing directly with Rashod Bateman, who has run 93-percent of his routes this season from out wide.
On the personnel front, the Ravens actually played 11 personnel (three wide receivers) at their second-lowest rate of the season, just 15-percent. Instead, they played 21 (two running backs) at easily a season-high 48-percent, as fullback Patrick Ricard tied his season high with a 63-percent snap share. Baltimore had a big lead early in this one, so these trends are likely much more related to that than to the addition of Diontae (who played less than 30-percent of available snaps).
We should also note that Mark Andrews posted his second-lowest route participation rate of the season (and lowest since Week 3) at just 46.3-percent. This is also likely more game-script-related than anything else, but it is a reversal of what had been a positive trend for Andrews. Coming off a few solid weeks and a 77-percent participation rate last week, he was approaching the TE1 conversation again … not so much after this week. Most of these numbers don’t mean too much in a one-game sample, but it’s worth keeping an eye on how the Ravens continue to incorporate Johnson because this is a dominant offense where every consistent piece will have fantasy value.
6. Coke Comes Out Flat
Coming into this week, UDFA rookie Jalen Coker was a very hot sleeper in the fantasy football community. I happily snagged him myself in a few Dynasty leagues — he has already flashed talent and looked to have a clear path to a starting role in the Panthers’ offense.
Unfortunately, that hype train took a big hit this week. Coker served as the Panthers’ WR3 behind fellow rookie Xavier Legette and journeyman veteran David Moore, posting a route participation rate of just 48-percent. That’s a step backward from last week when he was clearly ahead of Legette in terms of routes.
With Adam Thielen also due to return from IR soon, Coker is not worth holding in the vast majority of Redrafts formats. Legette, who caught four of his six targets for 33 yards and a touchdown this week, is the better rookie to stash in this Carolina offense … although the chances anyone emerges as a weekly fantasy starter aren’t great.
7. Maybe Joe Flacco Wasn’t The Answer
The NFL world was split on whether benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco was the right call from a football perspective, but those of us in fantasy land were all fairly united that this would be a win for the Colts’ offense. Instead, the Colts had their worst offensive outing of the season in Flacco’s first game as the official starter, scoring just six offensive points on 227 total yards.
On the fantasy front, Josh Downs (whom some were declaring a WR1 for the rest of the season with Flacco under center) led Indianapolis with 9.0 Half-PPR points on nine targets. Jonathan Taylor managed just 60 combined yards on 13 carries and five targets. Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, and Michael Pittman Jr. combined for a whopping total 10.2 fantasy points.
To be fair, the Vikings’ defense is a tough matchup. On the season, Flacco still ranks No. 18 in adjusted EPA per play at 0.107, while Richardson is No. 32 out of 36 qualified QBs with -0.097. For teams where I roster Downs, JT, or another Colts player, I’m still hoping that Flacco remains the Colts’ QB. But expecting him to elevate this offense was probably a bridge too far. Meanwhile, Shane Steichen is only willing to commit to Flacco as the Colts’ starter “right now,” … eerily similar to what he said about Richardson just before his benching. This story might have more twists to come.
8. Nick Chubb Isn’t Nick Chubb
It pains me to say this, but we now have a three-game sample size of Nick Chubb since his return from injury, and it’s not pretty. According to SumerSports, he ranks No. 70 out of 72 rushers in Yards Created, beating out only Zamir White and Justice Hill. He has been tackled for loss on 22.2-percent of his attempts, the highest rate of those 72 players. According to PFF, he ranks No. 47 out of 64 qualified RBs in yards after contact per attempt, not to mention 10th-worst in PFF Rushing Grade.
These numbers are especially worrisome for Chubb, who has always hung his hat on being not just good, but ELITE in terms of rushing efficiency. With Jerome Ford back healthy this week, Chubb posted a 35.5-percent snap share and a 14.3-percent route participation rate. He did see 15 of Cleveland’s 19 RB rush attempts but also recorded just one target. With this lack of receiving usage, Chubb is going to be a TD-dependent flex play unless his efficiency numbers improve fast, nothing more.
9. Zeke’s Suspension Opens the Door for Dowdle
In an odd twist, veteran RB Ezekiel Elliott was a healthy scratch this week in response to reported discipline issues. In his absence, Rico Dowdle took over a workhorse role in the Cowboys’ backfield. Dowdle played 72-percent of Dallas’ offensive snaps, handled 80-percent of the RB rush attempts, and even racked up six targets (12-percent share) on a 46-percent route participation rate. All of those numbers are easily season highs for Dowdle, who had only broken a 50-percent snap share once all season prior to this week, and even that was just 51-percent in Week 5.
Unfortunately, there are some reasons not to get too excited about this development. For one, Zeke may be back. He has been terribly inefficient all year, so this discipline issue may have been the last straw, but who knows what is going on in Dallas. For another, Dak Prescott is reportedly going to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring issue. The Cowboys’ offense has already struggled, it could be one of the worst in the league without Dak.
Still, this is a huge boost to Dowdle’s value. If he maintains this dominance over the Cowboys’ backfield, he’s at least a flex option going forward.
10. Taysom Hill Is Inevitable
By the end of this game, the Saints were down three of their top four receivers (Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Bub Means) and two of their top three running backs (Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams). Mason Tipton and Marquez Valdes-Scantling served as the Saints’ top two receivers, while Jordan Mims worked in behind Alvin Kamara at running back.
However, the big winner in terms of usage was “tight end” Taysom Hill. Hill has been injured on-and-off all season, but this week he set season highs in route share (42-percent) and target share (a team-high 16-percent), as well as carrying the ball five times. Thanks largely to a seven-yard rushing TD, Hill finished the day with 14.0 Half-PPR points, the third-most of any TE on the week (pending MNF).
As a fantasy play, Taysom is still TD-dependent with this usage. But so are most borderline TE1s, and he may have a better shot at a TD than most traditional tight ends. For the season, Taysom has handled 26-percent of the Saints’ carries inside the 10-yard line for games where he has been active (and that includes multiple games he left early due to injury). As New Orleans’ injuries keep mounting, he’s worth keeping in mind as a streaming TE option, especially for Standard and Half-PPR leagues.
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