Welcome back to Lucid Streams. Our goal here is to help you find emergency help that’s potentially available on the waiver wire or on the back of your bench when you’re scrambling for options due to injuries or plain old poor drafting at wide receiver and tight end. We also want to equip you with the tools to go out on your own and find the best fantasy football sleepers yourself in case the options listed here each week aren’t available to you. Our goal is to find WRs who have at least a reasonable chance to contribute 10+ PPR points to your lineup this week and TEs who can chip in 7+ points in PPR.
Last week wasn’t a great week for my primary recommendations, but if you had to dig into the Honorable Mention section, almost every one of them hit. Hopefully this week we’ll have more primary recommendations hit. Let’s get to it!
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The Process
What we are looking for each week is to find the players most likely to pop for one of several reasons. They may have an increased role in their offense due to the misfortune of a player ahead of them on the depth chart, or they may be facing a defense which will have trouble defending them due to a positional mismatch. Maybe that’s a chronic problem of the defense, or maybe it’s due to injuries in the coverage units, which will allow a unique opportunity for success by our streamer. At the intersection of high opportunity and low ownership is where we want to pan for gold in the stream. Remember, these are recommendations for those who are really in a bind for a starter and should not be played over anyone you’d normally start.
We’ll use a variety of tools to help us, including schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the WR or TE positions. If you’re not familiar with this metric, it removes the variance that can skew fantasy points allowed by a defense due to the quality of the passing attacks they’ve faced. For example, if Defense A has faced four top-tier passing offenses in the first four weeks while Defense B has faced only weak passing offenses over that same period, it could appear that Defense B is better at defending WRs than Defense A, when in reality, Defense A might be the tougher matchup.
The further we get into the season, the more relevance this analysis will have. To start the season, we’ll be using data from 2023 which may or may not continue to be accurate for 2024, but it’s better to at least know where a defense left off at the end of last season than to know nothing at all.
Streaming Wide Receivers Week 3
Andrei Iosivas
Iosivas made the most of his four targets last week, housing two of them for touchdowns. We can’t expect results like this every week, but IF Tee Higgins can’t suit up again this week, Iosivas will once again serve as Cincinnati’s WR2. The good news is that this week he’ll face a much softer defense. The Commanders rank #29 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Jauan Jennings
The hits just keep coming to the 49ers’ skill players. Deebo Samuel is now expected to miss several weeks, making the barely-rostered Jennings a hot waiver wire pickup this week. Should you be lucky enough to snag him, he’s worth playing if you’re really in a bind at WR. He’s likely to get four to six targets, and the Rams’ defense has struggled against opposing WRs, allowing a schedule-adjusted 40.3 points to the position.
Jalen Nailor
The Vikings’ WR3, Nailor has scored in both weeks so far this season. He should have an elevated role again this week, just as he had last week when Jordan Addison couldn’t suit up due to an ankle sprain. There’s a good shot that Addison will be out again this week, so Nailor will see more targets once again. The Vikings will likely have to keep their foot on the accelerator on offense to keep up with the Texans, who have so far been generous to opposing WRs (28th in our schedule-adjusted metric).
Josh Reynolds
It’s hard to back the Broncos’ pop-gun offense right now, but at least Josh Reynolds has been a big part of it so far this season. Reynolds has actually outscored Courtland Sutton so far this year. This week the Broncos will face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have been the stone-worst defense in our schedule-adjusted metric when it comes to the WR position. Starting Reynolds feels gross, but it’s worked out so far this year.
Honorable mentions
- Jordan Whittington: After injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, he’s now a starting WR and impressed in the preseason.
- Noah Brown: After a couple of weeks to get up to speed in the Commanders’ offense, Brown is now getting targets.
Streaming Tight Ends Week 3
Hunter Henry
Henry exploded up the TE scoreboard last week, finishing as the No. 2 TE on the strength of 12 targets, nine catches, and 109 yards. Henry is probably the second target in this offense all year, at worst, and could end up out-targeting everyone in an anemic WR room. He’ll be a popular add on waivers this week, but if you land him, he could be a plug-and-play option.
Zach Ertz
Ertz is the top TE for the Commanders, another team that has very few good answers among their receiving options. He currently has the second most targets on the team, behind only Terry McLaurin. In a year where the TE position is underwhelming to say the least, Ertz is a viable option nearly any week you need a fantasy football sleeper. He’s also facing the Bengals, who are the worst team this year at defending the TE.
Greg Dulcich
Third on the Broncos in targets earned, Dulcich has struggled more than we’d like to see in actually reeling them in (five catches out of 11 targets). However, we still have to respect the ability to earn those targets. We’ll hope he can convert a higher percentage of them into receptions going forward. The better news is that this week’s opponent, the Buccaneers, are #NotGood at defending the TE, coming in 31st in our schedule-adjusted metric.
Brenton Strange
A surprise starter last week when Evan Engram pulled up lame in warmups with a hamstring injury, Strange earned six targets. That puts him squarely on the streamer radar. Hamstrings are notoriously slow to heal, so Engram may be unable to go again this week. If that’s the case, you can fire up Strange if you’re in a jam. This week’s opponent for Jacksonville, the Buffalo Bills, are fresh off allowing Jonnu Smith to reel in six of seven targets for 53 yards.
Honorable mentions
- Chigoziem Okonkwo: If you’re really desperate, the Titans have few answers at receiver so far, and Chig has already scored a TD.
- Jonnu Smith: Jonnu have come as a recommended play if Tua was still at the helm, but you could do worse in a jam.
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