It’s easy to overreact to Week 1 of the NFL season after waiting seven long months for real football to return. Nothing compares to the impact and gut reactions that we get from a Week 1 dud from our favorite player. Many fantasy managers will push all of their offseason research and beliefs to the side all because of a one-week sample. So, let’s get after it and cook up some fantasy trades for the overreactors. We’ll look at players to trade for and players to trade away.
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Travis Etienne (RB, JAX) – BUY
Now is the time to capitalize on that panicked Etienne manager. There were rumblings throughout camp that Tank Bigsby was going to play a larger role in the Jaguars offense this year, and he did just that in Week 1. Bigsby saw the same amount of carries (12) as Etienne and outgained him significantly on the ground (73 to 44). But Etienne still played 70-percent of snaps to Bigsby’s 32-percent and had all of the Jaguars running back redzone carries (4).
Etienne saw a 14-percent target share in Week 1 which is higher than his 12.1-percent target share from last season. His goal line fumble was an eight-point swing that cost him his second touchdown of the day. Etienne is still getting the valuable touches even if Bigsby spells him, he’ll still be a top 10 running back. I’d be looking to flip Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner, or Tony Pollard for Travis Etienne in fantasy trades.
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR) – BUY
A down week for Kyren Williams was expected coming into Week 1 as he went up against a top run defense in the Detroit Lions. But this game was encouraging for Kyren’s fantasy stock as he played 91-percent of snaps and handled 90-percent of the Rams running back carries. Blake Corum was a healthy scratch and Ronnie Rivers played just seven snaps and saw just two touches. Williams handled 21 touches, catching all three of his targets. It was an inefficient day gaining just 54 yards, but he scored and got the volume that you’d hope for. His 12.9 fantasy points in Week 1 paired with the punt return news that had managers panicking before the season even started may be enough to buy a top 5 running back for cheap.
Tank Dell (WR, HOU) – BUY
Dell’s 64-percent snaps were the lowest of the Texans wide receiver trio, but route participation is what really matters for wide receivers. Dell ran one more route than teammate Nico Collins and was on the field for 87-percent of routes. He was second on the team to Nico Collins in targets with seven, while also getting two carries out of the backfield.
He finished with just three receptions for 40 yards, but he was being targeted downfield with an average depth of target of 16.6 yards. While his teammate Stefon Diggs saw six targets and cough all six for 33 yards and two touchdowns. This is the exact type of trade that I would look for, acquiring Dell (and maybe even another piece) for Stefon Diggs.
Stefon Diggs (WR, HOU) – SELL
Stefon Diggs was the lucky wide receiver in Houston this week that got the touchdowns, but he finished with just 33 yards on his six catches. This was in large part due to his average depth of target of just 1.7 yards downfield. Of course, a couple of short touchdown passes will bring this number down, but 1.7 ranked 80/81 receivers who saw at least three targets in Week 1. Touchdowns are the least predictable stat, and Stefon Diggs has never been a guy to rack up a bunch of them. Take advantage of this big week and move him for guys like Tank Dell, DK Metcalf, D.J. Moore, or Malik Nabers in fantasy trades.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE) – SELL HIGH
Rhamondre looked great in Week 1, serving as the Patriots workhorse running back. He forced ten missed tackles, most of any player on the week. His 25 carries were 78-percent of the Patriots running back carries, while adding three receptions as well.
The game script allowed him to see 28 touches, something that probably won’t happen often for the Patriots this season. The Patriots scored just 16 points as a team and still have a below average offense and offensive line. It was a great start for Stevenson, but if you can sell him high for an elite running back who underperformed in Week 1 like Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor, or Kyren Williams I would.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) – SELL HIGH
We saw a vintage Lamar Jackson performance in Week 1, scoring 25 fantasy points with 122 rushing yards. He did this on the back of 16 rushing attempts, a number he never hit in the previous two seasons. The Ravens lost three starters on the offensive line, and it showed in Week 1. Lamar was pressured early and often. We’ve seen how inconsistent and risky of a player Lamar has been over the last few seasons. He’s finished outside of the top 12 quarterbacks in nearly 40-percent of weeks over the last two seasons, and he’s played over 12 games just once in the last three seasons. He’s already banged up and questionable headed into Week 2 of this season, so I’d look to move on from his big game and cash in for the likes of C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, or Jalen Hurts.
Remember, these are players we’re looking to sell HIGH and buy LOW. If the price isn’t right, don’t force a trade. Be smart and take advantage of panicked fantasy managers. Good luck making some fantasy trades this week!
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