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Fast Draft Diaries: Early ADP Values and Frauds
Welcome back to the second edition of Fast Draft Diaries! I’m very excited to write this article today because it will provide more actionable moves to make while in the wild west of FastDraft lobbies. I’ve cranked out some FastDraft Flex4 teams and have some observations to share. Let’s get started with a potential WR1 that you can get in the third round!
Note: The ADP data collected was from 2/13/2025.
Value: Tyreek Hill—Current ADP 3.6 (Mid 3rd Round)
Last season was terrible for the passing game of the Miami Dolphins. Tua missed time, Jaylen Waddle never got right, and it was revealed that Tyreek Hill played through the season with a wrist injury he suffered at the beginning of the season. Hill finished as a WR 3 on a fantasy points-per-game basis and posted his lowest reception total since 2019. It’s not unusual to see a speedster receiver like Hill begin a decline in talent, but this past season was unusual. He had the wrist injury all season, but there was no mention of a soft tissue injury such as a hamstring strain or leg issue.
Flex 4 Tournament on @fastdraftapp
This is a favorite of mine to base rankings. Did I cook?👨🏻🍳
Excited to create my own rankings which are super simple. ✅
Excellent ease of use! pic.twitter.com/UbifXEaUPa
— jeremiah retzlaff (@coachretzlaff1) February 4, 2025
This is a bet that Tyreek can get back to his old antics again. If he’s fully healthy, with a fully healthy Tua, he’s a WR 1 overall. And to get a WR 1 overall in the third round is thievery at the highest level. I won’t be overweight on Tyreek shares, but I will be watching his ADP closely. In late January, his ADP was in the 4th round! The hate has gone too far.
Value: Kenneth Walker—Current ADP 4.1 (Early 4th Round)
This one is tricky! Kenneth Walker is a dog. He’s universally loved by the fantasy football community, but last season was not great for Walker. He missed more games this season than he did his previous two seasons combined. But the reason why he is on here is because of the schematic change that is coming to Seattle. The Seahawks have elected to move on from Ryan Grubb and are installing a new offensive system, a system run by Klint Kubiak. Kubiak was most recently the offensive coordinator for New Orleans, and before the offense was derailed by injuries, we saw a very traditional offense.
#Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak on his outside zone scheme, throwing the ball to running backs, and Kenneth Walker:
“Looking forward to him in this scheme, and we’re gonna ask a lot out of him.”
Wheels all the way up for K9, pants all the way off for K9 fantasy managers pic.twitter.com/JGgRqfkHJW
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 11, 2025
They operated with a fullback, ran the ball, and threw deep on play action. Seattle desperately needs an upgrade on the offensive line, and this change could spur a boost in production from the line. The passing game will take a step back, but the rushing game could thrive. If Walker can avoid injuries, which is a big IF, he has the potential to finish as the leading rusher next season. Check the tweet above where Kubiak gushes over Walker in his first appearance as the new OC of the Seahawks!
Fraud: Isiah Pacheco—Current ADP 3.9 (Late 3rd Round)
Isiah Pacheco had a season to forget. He suffered a broken leg during the middle of the season when most thought he would be out for the year. But credit to him and the Chiefs medical staff for him to return in time for the playoffs. But the bigger issue was productivity after the injury. Pacheco averaged under three yards per carry in the playoffs, showing little to no burst unlike how he looked before the injury.
To make matters worse, the Chiefs offense as a whole was a massive disappointment in the Super Bowl. They appear to be destined to make moves to improve the offense, and one clear position of need is running back. The incoming draft class is loaded with running back talent, and Pacheco himself is only a 7th round pick. The Chiefs appear destined to have a new backfield in 2025.
Fraud: Tetairoa McMillan—Current ADP 5.0 (Early 6th Round)
Tetairoa McMillan is the #1 wide receiver in this draft, and that’s the consensus with the draft community. There’s a world where Travis Hunter could be that top wide receiver, but that is unlikely with Hunter headed to the Combine as a cornerback. I believe Tet’s a great talent and will provide strong production to whoever drafts him. But didn’t we see this with Marvin Harrison Jr.?
We need to temper our expectations with McMillan, not because of McMillan, but because of the environment he will be in. Potential landing spots for Tet include Cleveland, New England, Carolina, and Las Vegas. If he lands in a spot with poor quarterback play, we’re hopefully headed for a WR3-type season. If he lands in New England with Drake Maye, or Carolina with Bryce Young, then we all will feel much better about his potential outcome for immediate success.
