FFPC ADP Risers and Fallers
Part One: Rounds 1-8
Risers
Saquon Barkley
There are a few factors in play here. Barkley saw a slight dip into the second round with the contract situation, with drafters getting opportunities for mid to late second round Barkley exposure. I have one Christian McCaffrey-Barkley team that I was able to draft during this window.
Now there is a perfect storm of health (Hall, Dobbins) and contract (Jacobs, Taylor) situations with some RBs behind Barkley in ADP. This makes him a prime candidate to be selected at the end of the first round. Expect Barkley to settle into the 8-14 range every single draft by the end of summer.
Mark Andrews
Andrews is another slight, but significant riser. Andrews at the 1-2 turn has been a contrarian way to draft teams, as MANDREWS is almost universally viewed as the biggest threat to Travis Kelce for TE1 Overall. Expect Andrews to be a top 15 selection in late August, with the occasional “reach” mixed in. Lamar Jackson–Mark Andrews teams are also becoming more and more common which will further drive up both of their prices.
Calvin Ridley
Ridley is now in consideration with Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf for drafters selecting WRs in the early portion of the third round. There has been nothing but positivity with his on-field play in Jacksonville so far, and he continues to move further and further ahead of teammate Christian Kirk. If you want Ridley, be prepared to spend top 15 WR prices for him.
James Cook
Cook has been one of the major stories at a Buffalo camp with glowing reports daily about his strong play. The ADP market has reflected this as Cook has moved from mid tier RB3 to high-end RB3 and on his way to RB2 land. By the time a September moves around, Cook will be a sixth rounder. He has the combination of receiving ability, explosiveness and unknown upside that drafters are looking for in this range. He has also further separated from teammate Damien Harris.
Javonte Williams
Yes, I have a Williams share at the 7-8 Turn in an FFPC Main Event. Mid article flexes hit different. Williams will not only be available for Week 1, but he is an active training camp participant right now. Wiliams has moved into RB2 territory and is neck and neck with players like Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins and Rachaad White. Expect Williams to continue rising.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The JSN hype train is in full effect. He is this year’s training camp WR riser. The first round pick has drawn rave reviews from beat reporters and QB Geno Smith alike. He has flipped ADPs with teammate Tyler Lockett– last season’s WR13 Overall. Sixth Round JSN is very much here. If he breaks off for a big gain during a preseason game, we could see him touch the fifth.
Darren Waller
Waller was in my previous Risers and Fallers article as he had notably flipped ADPs with Dallas Goedert. The Waller rocketship has not stopped, as he has now passed George Kittle and Kyle Pitts and is being selected as TE4 Overall. He is many analysts dark horse TE1 Overall Candidate with a high target ceiling. If Waller is part of your current draft plan in FFPC drafts, be prepared to use a mid fourth rounder.
Fallers
Cooper Kupp
This is a slight dip, but it is significant because of where it is taking place. Tyreek Hill will generally be selected ahead of Kupp now, with Kupp falling to WR4. Drafters with the 1.07 and 1.08 will now have a greater chance at Kupp exposure than they would have before soft tissue concerns. By all accounts, Kupp will be ready by Week 1. This could make for some dangerous teams in the middle of the 1st Round.
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor is sliding to the back half of Round 2. The trade request, contract situation and conflicting injury reports have caused risk averse managers to skip selecting Taylor. There is a resistance point in the back of round 2, and we have not seen third round Taylor. If everything works out and he is ready to go Week 1, we could see some absolute monster Chase-Taylor, Kelce-Taylor, Hill-Taylor and CMC-Taylor teams. Risk-Reward measuring here.
Josh Jacobs
Jacobs holdout fears have caused him to drop from RB 10 range down to RB 12. When last season ended, it would’ve been unthinkable. The Josh Jacobs could be available at the beginning of the fourth round but we have seen it. There is a general lack of enthusiasm for the running back position in the first three rounds. If Las Vegas and Jacobs can reach some sort of a contractual agreement like we saw with Barkley, expect his ADP to creep back up.
Kadarius Toney
Toney has seen his ADP torpedo lately, falling from mid tier WR3 to low end WR4. He is dealing with a knee injury, and drafters are incredibly weary about drafting a player who has struggled to stay on the field and consistently contribute when on it. Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice have seen their ADP’s rise, and Moore has flipped Toney in drafts.
Breece Hall
Hall has moved up and down this summer as drafters comtinue to weigh the opportunity cost of selecting a talented player whose return to the field is a question mark. Could we have to wait a few games for Hall? Could he be eased back in touches wise when he returns? Early fourth round Hall is now a litmus test for optimism vs pessimism and risk tolerance.
J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins was a riser earlier this summer and a fifth-round fixture. However, he has seen a recent dip the past month as contract frustration and health concerns have driven his price down. Drafters are betting on Andrews and Jackson, and there is an increased enthusiasm about the Baltimore passing game. Dobbins is falling into a range where he could quickly become a value.
