The first (and maybe even second) wave of NFL Free Agency is over. The big ticket winners with their “multi-year deals” and “multi-millions in guarantees” are already on the clock for when they get cut and start looking for their next team. All, or at least most, NFL eyes are now turning to the NFL Draft. With this turning of the NFL calendar, the Breakout Finder becomes all the more critical. You can read all about it here, and then go off and download the app for yourself. I highly recommend you do so. Having poured through it myself, I found these top 5 surprises regarding the 2023 class of NFL prospects.
The Breakout Finder Loves Roschon Johnson More Than Most Wide Receivers in This Class
Texas running back Roschon Johnson didn’t get many chances to show off his skills in college, sharing a backfield as he did with Bijan Robinson. Johnson comes into the NFL with a mere 392 rush attempts which brought him 2,190 yards and 23 touchdowns. He boasts a 12.7-percent College Dominator Rating (13th percentile). Yet his Breakout Rating of 56.3 is higher than EVERY WIDE RECEIVER not named Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this class.
It’s possible the NFL will see more of Johnson’s best than college did, especially with Johnson owning an absolutely mammoth Teammate Score of 174.6. But even if this happens, it must say something about this wide receiver class that a running back who doesn’t scream out “Pro Standard Bell Cow!” is rated as more likely to break out than them all.
Rashee Rice Has a Top 5 Wide Receiver Breakout Rating
Rashee Rice was not a player I was too familiar with coming into the Draft Cycle. So to see him with a 44.3 Breakout Rating was something of a surprise to me. Rice has a decent 32.9-percent College Dominator Rating (64th percentile) but boasts an elite 33.2-percent College Target share (96th percentile) and 133.7 Burst Score (95th percentile).
Despite playing at a lower level of competition, and displaying less dynamism than Kayshon Boutte, Rice boasts a higher Breakout Rating than the LSU alum, thanks in no small part to his burst. Boutte’s Burst Score was 108.3.
Charlie Jones is The Most Dynamic Prospect in the 2023 Class
Charlie Jones, or “Charlie Effing Football” as he is known by Cody Carpentier, is blowing no one away with his athleticism. His 94.1 Athleticism Score is No. 36 of 38 wide receivers in this class, No. 189 out of 199 players in this class, and No. 5,108 out of 5,556 players in our database. His 43.6-percent College Dominator (90th percentile) and 29.4-percent College Target Share (88th percentile) might raise a few eyebrows. But they are tempered by a 23.9 Breakout Age (1st percentile). So why should we have any interest at all in Jones?
Charlie Jones College Stats
Because he’s got that dawg in him, of course.
Jones has, by quite some distance, the highest Dynamic Score among all wide receivers in this class. This metric is designed to encompass how diverse and elusive an athlete is. The metric combines special teams’ returns as well as rushing yardage. Jones has 1,644 special teams yards in his career, greatly assisting his score in this metric.
However, as impressive as Jones’s 70.3 Dynamic Score is in comparison to the rest of the class, it’s a long way from being the best we’ve ever seen. The guy who sits atop this particular pile had a score of 185.2, and his name is Percy Harvin. Jones has a Breakout Rating of 33.8, making it unlikely his day in the NFL sun will ever come, but Cody will be smiling brightly should it happen.
Deuce Vaughn has The Highest Receiver Rating in This Class
We want running backs who catch the ball in fantasy football. This goes without saying, I would hope. Receiver Rating is a great method of gauging which backs could shoulder a passing down role in the NFL. This metric takes into account the best season for a prospect in these four statistics: target share, yards per team pass attempt, yards per reception, and team yardage share.
While many have pinned Alvin Kamara-like hopes onto Jahmyr Gibbs since this draft cycle began, Gibbs does not have the best Receiver Rating in this class. No sir, he does not. Gibbs has an 85.8 rating, which is very good, but he stands below Deuce Vaughn in 2023. Vaughn is the proud owner of a 95.4 rating and a college target share of 16.7-percent (96th percentile) suggesting that he has serious receiving chops. Vaughn has 116 grabs for 1,280 yards from his college days.
But while this receiving profile is fantastic, and it is, Vaughn has a Breakout Rating of just 29.1. A big reason for this is his size or lack thereof. Vaughn is 5-5 and weighs under 180 pounds.
Jacob Cowing is the Most Dominant Wide Receiver in This Class
As a rule, we like to see a few things from our college prospects as they enter the NFL. Among these, we want to see dominance in college, preferably from an early age. Jacob Cowing appears to tick both of these boxes.
Cowing comes into the NFL with a 61.4-percent College Dominator Rating (99th percentile) and a 36.8-percent College Target Share (99th percentile). He also broke out at age 18.6 (96th percentile). Cowing racked up 1,354 yards at UTEP in 2021, then added a further 1,034 in 2022 after transferring to Arizona.
We have to acknowledge that Cowing was not facing off against elite talent on a weekly basis, nor was he battling for targets in a crowded receiver room. Cowing’s Level of Competition rating was -0.6, “good” for No. 30 in this class. It is true that 34 prospects had a higher Teammate Score than Cowing’s 0.0. But if production matters, and it should, then his chances of breaking out from this class are not wholly dead, especially at 43.2. This is the same number as Boutte.
