Garrett Wilson vs Chris Olave | Dynasty Fantasy Football Debates

by Joel Ybarra · Draft Strategy

Pre-eminent Prospects Enter the Fold

Young wide receivers are the most sought after players in Dynasty. The 2022 NFL draft class was loaded with sensational first round receivers. Drake London, Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson and Jameson Williams were all drafted in the first round, along with two Ohio State teammates, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. The Ohio State University is supplying the NFL with a bevy of top-notch wide receiver talent. Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters the NFL as a first-round rookie this season, and elite prospect Marvin Harrison, Jr. will enter the draft in 2024. The coming years will reveal which of these Buckeye receivers is the greatest. Here we evaluate the two elder statesmen, Olave and Wilson, who are entering their sophomore seasons in the NFL. Is Garrett Wilson better in fantasy football or Chris Olave?

Parallel Production

Olave and Wilson are inextricably linked, one selected right after the other in last year’s NFL Draft. Wilson was selected No. 10 overall and Olave one pick later. Wilson is also being drafted higher in dynasty startups – as WR4 – according to Keeptradecut. Olave is going as WR8 even though the duo performed similarly as rookies. The table below shows their first-year numbers side by side.

Dynasty Wide Receivers Olave vs Wilson

Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave Advanced Stats

It is not surprising they are each other’s best comparable player on Playerprofiler.com. They are both six feet tall. Olave is one pound heavier at 185-pounds than Wilson, who is 184-pounds. Olave is 22.9 years old; Wilson is 22.8.

Efficiency

Examining each player’s advanced metrics, we see how they performed in terms of route-running and efficiency in their rookie seasons. Wilson created more Target Separation – 1.68 yards (No. 60) versus Olave’s 1.50 (No. 80). Olave had a higher route win rate, however, winning 48.1-percent (No. 12) of his routes compared to Wilson’s 42.3-percent (No. 39). He was also generally more efficient than Wilson, posting 2.57 (No. 11) Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (YPTPA) and 42.2 EPA (No. 27). Wilson recorded 1.76 YPTPA (No. 26) and 22.2 EPA (No. 59).

The efficiency advantage goes to Olave.

Quarterback Play

Neither receiver was in an advantageous spot in terms of who was throwing them the ball last season. Wilson’s situation was worse. Only 63.9-percent (No. 92) of his targets from Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson and Mike White were considered catchable. Olave’s catchable target rate from Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston was a bit better: 75.6-percent (No. 53). Both players get an upgrade at quarterback in 2023. Wilson is the biggest winner since the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers regressed last season following two straight MVP seasons but was still a more accurate passer than Olave’s new quarterback, Derek Carr. Rodgers’ accuracy rating was 7.8 (No. 12) last season. Carr’s accuracy rating was 7.3 (No. 23).

A Common Number One

Carr and Rodgers have each had Davante Adams as their main target in one of the last two seasons. This means we can compare Adams’s production while playing with each QB to give us some insight into how they will facilitate production for their new No. 1 receivers. Rodgers and Carr both tend to zero in on one target. Adams had a 32.6-percent (No. 1) target share with Carr in 2022 and a 31.6-percent (No. 2) target share with Rodgers in 2021. With Carr last season, Adams earned 10.9 targets per game, averaged 5.9 catches and 89 receiving yards, catching 14 TDs in 17 games. With Rodgers in 2021, Adams earned 10.6 targets per game, averaged 7.7 catches and 97 receiving yards while catching 11 TDs in 16 games.

Adams’s catch rate was quite a bit lower in Vegas (55.6-percent) than in Green Bay (72.8-percent) the previous season. This is largely due to Rodgers’s superior accuracy, but also due to the depth of the targets thrown to Adams by Carr. The Raiders were making it a priority to target Adams downfield. His average depth of target in Las Vegas last season was 11.8 yards (No. 39), compared to 9.0 yards (No. 68) his last season with the Packers. Adams led the league in Air Yards with 2,130 last season. The downfield usage juiced his production and he led all receivers in touchdowns with 14.

The quarterback advantage goes to Wilson, at least for next season.

Target Competition

Rodgers is notoriously slow building chemistry with young receivers, and he has talked the Jets into signing vets Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb for next season. Wilson is the most talented target earner in the Jets’ receiver corps, but their moves to add target competition will complicate things for him more than for Olave. The Saints did not add serious receiver talent in the draft or free agent market this offseason, though they probably should have. Undrafted rookie Rashid Shaheed was one of the stars in the Saints’ passing game last season and all they did to fill out the receiver room in the 2023 offseason was spend a sixth-round draft pick on A.T. Perry.

The advantage in target competition goes to Olave for next season.

The Decision

With comparable talent and production profiles, the dynasty decision between Olave and Wilson comes down to long-term value. Wilson is getting a more substantial quarterback upgrade for the coming season, but it will not be surprising if he and Olave still put out similar production in 2023. The key is what will happen in the years following. Rodgers is going to turn 40 years old during the 2023 season. He already started to decline last season, posting a 39.4 QBR (No. 26) after being No. 1 in that metric (68.8) just one season previous. Both the Saints and the Jets are locked in with their quarterbacks’ contracts for the foreseeable future. There is just much more risk built in with Rodgers long-term. He could retire after next season or continue to decline. This makes Olave a more stable dynasty asset with a comparable production ceiling as Wilson.

The Dynasty Move

Wilson is going in the second round of startups. Olave is, many times, going in the third round. Waiting to target a cornerstone receiver like Olave in the third means you can spend a valuable second-round pick on another building block.

You can also tap them both in the early rounds of a startup and watch them bolster your roster production alongside each other for years into the future. If you can trade Wilson for Olave-plus, you should, capitalizing on the Rodgers hype before his ability falls off for good or he retires. Rostering Olave over the higher-rated Wilson is the type of move that goes against the grain and helps fantasy gamers build dynasty winning rosters that are win-now and future-focused. Now is the time to move on Olave.