Geno Smith Seahawks QB – My Guys 2023

by Shervon Fakhimi · Best Ball Plays & Strategy

At the time it seemed like a cute, cool story. Geno Smith was heralded to be an early first-round pick way back in 2013 after a prolific career at West Virginia but slipped all the way to the second round. Smith showed some flashes but largely struggled after two seasons as a starter on a bottom-feeding Jets roster. A third season as a starter got ripped from under him by a sucker punch from a teammate. Smith toiled as a backup for years. As a backup in Seattle, Russell Wilson followed through on a pass onto Aaron Donald‘s helmet in Week 5 of the 2021 season. Wilson broke his hand. ‘They wrote me off, but I ain’t write back though.’ That’s the bar that Geno Smith, Seahawks QB, spit in his first start as a Week 1 NFL starting quarterback since 2014.

Smith finally got another chance to start games. Simply put, he made the most of it. The Seahawks went 1-2 in Smith’s three starts in 2021, but Smith performed well. Including his fill-in performance against the Rams, Smith went on to throw for 702 yards and five touchdowns to one interception on 65/95 passing. Had he qualified, Smith’s 7.4 yards per attempt mark in 2021 would’ve tied for No. 12 in the NFL alongside two guys I’m sure you’ve heard of: Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

Smith graded well in NFL’s Next Gen Stats’ completion percentage over the expectation metric too. Only once did Smith register a negative mark in his four 2021 appearances, and the lowest was -0.2. Not only was Smith’s Week 8 +24.7 Completion Percentage Over Expectation vs Jacksonville the best mark that week, but that performance was also the highest-graded game in terms of CPOE over the entire 2021 season.

The Breakout

The Seahawks re-signed Geno Smith in the 2022 offseason. They let him compete for the starting quarterback job with Drew Lock, who the Seahawks acquired from the Denver Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade. A stellar preseason gave Smith the edge and he was named the Seahawks’ starting quarterback.

From there, Geno Smith never looked back. While Smith was still a bit wild (he did lead quarterbacks in both danger plays and interceptable passes with 46 and 41 apiece), the good far exceeded the erratic. Smith ranked No. 3 in the NFL in money throws. This throw to Tyler Lockett was one of the best throws anybody made in the 2022 season.

The good doesn’t stop there. Pick a stat and Geno Smith was at the top of the quarterback pack. That 7.4 yards per attempt in 2021? Well, despite an increase of 477 attempts, Smith increased his yards per attempt to 7.5. This ranked No. 9 among quarterbacks according to PlayerProfiler. He was No. 7 in air yards (4,556). Smith ranked No. 4 in true completion percentage (73.9-percent). He was No. 5 in fifth in deep ball completion percentage (45.5-percent). Smith also finished No. 5 in pressured completion percentage (51.4-percent), which is even more outstanding considering he had the No. 5-most pressured throws on the season (107). Of course, it helps to have DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and one of the best ascending offensive lines. However, Smith was truly one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in 2022.

Fantasy Value

Geno Smith was also one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in 2022. He ranked No. 12 among quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback (0.51) as well as No. 8 in fantasy points per game (18.5). He even added 68 carries for 366 yards and a touchdown. Smith ranked No. 8 among quarterbacks in carries and rushing yards as well.

No one’s going to mistake Smith for a Konami code quarterback, but he did run a 4.59 40-yard dash back when in 2013 and has added roughly 2.6 points per game as a runner in his 22 starts as a Seahawk, including the playoffs. Smith ended 2023 as the QB5 in fantasy football. Albeit, it was a very strange year for quarterback scoring with the creme de la creme drastically outpacing everyone else. He would’ve been the QB10 in 2021 and the QB12 in 2020 with his 2022 finish. Nonetheless, he delivered.

2023

The Seahawks ranked No. 12 in pass rate, No. 8 in pass rate over expectation, No. 14 in red zone pass rate over expectation, and No. 14 in pace. Then, they added the best wide receiver in the 2023 NFL Draft in Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle then added one of the best running backs in UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet (who excels as a pass-catcher) and more reinforcements to a loaded offensive line. But that’s not being reflected in Smith’s ADP whatsoever.

Smith is being drafted as the QB16 on Underdog. He’s being drafted behind the likes of Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, and Aaron Rodgers. Those guys are all within 20 spots of Smith’s ADP. Smith is being drafted over 50 spots behind Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence even though Smith outplayed them in 2022 as well. He has a better cast of weapons than anybody I just mentioned with the exception of possibly Tua Tagovailoa. Jones is the only player listed to average more rushing yards per game than Smith from the start of the 2021 season.

Ranking Explanation

So why is Geno Smith behind those five guys? It doesn’t make sense other than fantasy gamers thinking Smith’s 2022 season was a fluke. It’s possible, but I’m not buying. Smith’s combination of passing prowess paired with a solid base of rushing far exceeds any of the likes of Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, or Kirk Cousins. Neither of them have a season with at least 200 rushing yards since Dak Prescott did it in 2019. It’s hard to make the case for either of them to be drafted over Smith when Smith outperformed all of them as a runner and was just as good or better than all of them as a passer.

Daniel Jones, however, has a case for being drafted ahead of Smith. His rushing prowess is more predictable and sustainable to boom weeks than relying predominantly on prolific passing. Jones scored 112.8 points on the ground in 2022. That alone makes up a third of Geno Smith‘s fantasy total from last season. However, Smith did put up more top-five finishes at the position (four) than Jones did (three) in 2022. The Giants brought in Darren Waller in the offseason and acquired depth at receiver with the additions of Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt. Jones should improve as a passer in 2023. While I think it is clear that Geno Smith should be drafted over the names in the paragraph above, it’s a toss-up between Smith and Jones.

2022 a Fluke? 

For those that believe Geno Smith‘s 2022 was a fluke, it wasn’t as if his stats paint a wild, outlier season. 5.2-percent of Smith’s passes resulted in touchdowns. That’s above league average, but not wildly above average (Tagovailoa’s 6.25-percent mark is). And don’t forget the pace of play and pass rate stats from earlier either. Big plays are to be expected with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at your disposal. The Seahawks allowed Smith to lean on them.

And then there’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the new shiny toy in town. Smith-Njigba’s presence could pave a path for Smith to be even better in 2023. Smith got an average of 3.11 yards after the catch per target in 2022. That ranked No. 55 among quarterbacks. Smith-Njigba’s 790 yards after the catch in 2021 was the No. 3-most in the history of the Big Ten conference heading into the 2022 college season according to PFF.

From a Dynasty perspective, there weren’t many bigger winners from this offseason than Smith either. Not only did the Seahawks not draft a quarterback with the top-five pick they acquired from the Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade, but they gave Smith the bag. Smith signed a three-year $75 million contract that included $40 million guaranteed. The Seahawks can get out from under the contract in 2024, but with a pick likely to be in the 20s and without a succession plan currently on the roster, it’s more likely than not that Smith plays the rest of that contract out as the Seahawks’ starting quarterback. And remember, he’s going to play through that contract with DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet, a great offensive line, and at least one more season of Tyler Lockett. That will work.

Conclusion

Geno Smith was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in 2022. Though his resume isn’t the lengthiest, it should be long enough to prove that what he did in 2022 wasn’t a fluke. Fantasy gamers aren’t buying it, though, and that’s a mistake.

All the Seahawks did in the offseason was make Smith’s situation all the better than the good situation it was a year ago. Smith is one of the best buys at quarterback again in 2023. Don’t write him off. He’s not going to write back.