Green Bay Packers Offense Ascending | Which Green Bay Receivers to Roster in 2024

by Joel Ybarra · Analytics & Advanced Metrics
Packers receivers

PlayerProfiler is home to award winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out. Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers are, by far, the youngest passing unit in the NFL. Below, we break down a young ascending offense. 

Jordan Love was a punchline for the first three full years of his career. Green Bay selected him in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and he sat behind Aaron Rodgers for three agonizing seasons. The Packers’ treatment of Love is an oddity in today’s NFL, where first round quarterbacks are typically installed as starters in their rookie seasons. The Packers chose the slow cook method for Love. Not many believed in him going into the 2023 season, when Rodgers moved on to New York and Love finally got his chance to start. Even halfway through last season, many were on the fence about whether Love could be a quality NFL QB. The 25-year-old turned out to be more than capable commanding the Green Bay offense, and he is now a top-10 superflex QB.

Another curiosity of the Packers’ offense is their young core of offensive weapons. Every pass catcher is on a rookie contract and 25 years or younger entering the 2024 season. Love himself will be 26, making him and new signee Josh Jacobs (also 26) the only main contributors on the offense older than 25. Neither Love nor any of the pass catchers has hit his ceiling yet making the Packers one of 2024’s Ascending Offenses. Below we break down the potential of the young offense that will continue to crest in 2024.

Love in 2023

Love started slow in 2023. He managed three QB1 finishes over the first eight games but failed to top a 60-percent completion rate over that stretch. That was at less than seven yards per attempt in all but one game (9.1 in Week 1). In the second half of the season, however, LaFleur opened up the offense and let Love loose. Over the back half of the season (Weeks 9 through 18), Love topped seven yards per attempt in all but one game (Week 14 vs. NYG). His completion percentage was also above 70-percent in all but one game (Week 10 vs. PIT) during that stretch. He threw at least two touchdown passes in eight of those final nine games, not to mention a three-touchdown, 13.0 yards per attempt game when the Packers took down the Cowboys in the first round of the playoffs.

The Pass Catchers

Fantasy gamers were busy trying to figure out which Packers pass catcher to roster. Eight different Green Bay wide receivers or tight ends played at least 70-percent of snaps in a game in 2023: Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, Malik Heath, and Bo Melton (listed in order of total snaps played).

All were rookies or second-year players. Despite the rotating cast, the Packers’ WRs and TEs ranked No. 5 in combined fantasy PPG in 2023 even though no one pass catcher finished with more than 13.6 PPG (Reed, WR26). This is exactly the kind of ambiguous pass-catching unit we want to target. Love is an ascending fantasy facilitator, capable of carrying multiple pass catchers to premium production. The task is figuring out which ones to acquire.

Packed Like Sardines

Doubs played the most snaps in 2023, but earned just 1.33 (No. 64) yards per route run. Melton had the highest YPRR number (2.79), but that was while playing in just four games and more than 70-percent of snaps in only one. Wicks earned 2.07 YPRR (No. 24) on many more snaps (70-percent or more snaps in two games).

Reed also achieved a YPRR mark above two (2.06, No. 27), playing more than 70-percent of snaps just two weeks (66.9-percent of total snaps out of the slot). Watson earned 1.58 (No. 51) YPRR, but with a 15.4 (No. 6) ADOT. He was also dealing with multiple injuries. The hyper-athletic deep threat missed eight games, but he is the primary outside receiver, playing 70-percent or more snaps in eight of nine games. Kraft and Musgrave were both down near 1.3 YPRR on the season.

Reed and Watson are the most attractive weapons to acquire. However, if Reed continues to be used primarily out of the slot, the other outside receiver (whoever that ends up being) is interesting. It is worth taking a dart throw on one of the four outlined below. They split time last season and are each very acquirable. If and when this Green Bay offense gets cooking, we could have some cheap fantasy production, similar to Noah Brown/Nico Collins/Tank Dell last season. None of the four below was highly drafted and all are still on rookie deals, presenting one of the most ambiguous pass-game situations in the league. We want pass catchers attached to Love who proved to be a high-end fantasy distributor.

Bo Melton

Melton is an ultra-athletic (4.34 speed) prospect selected in the seventh round in the 2022 Draft by the Seahawks. He holds a 39.6-percent (81st-percentile) College Dominator Rating to go along with a 31.3-percent (92nd-percentile) College Target Share. Sure, it was at Rutgers, but on 78 routes run across four games as an NFL rookie, Melton drew 24 targets (a 30.8-percent target rate) and scored 0.59 fantasy points per route run. Those are eye-popping numbers if kept up over a larger sample.

Dontayvion Wicks

Wicks was a fifth round selection in 2023’s Draft and holds a decent college production profile – 50th-percentile Dominator Rating and 60th-percentile target share. As we established, the University of Virginia product was more involved than Melton over the course of the season.

Wicks ran the fourth-most routes on the team behind Doubs, Reed, and Kraft, and, in addition to the 2.07 YPRR mentioned above, he carved up secondaries with a 54.3-percent (No. 10) Route Win Rate.

Romeo Doubs

Doubs is the veteran of the group who played the most snaps of the pass catchers in 2023. Green Bay drafted him in the fourth round in 2022, higher than Melton, Wicks, and Heath, but Doubs has not really popped in any efficiency or route-running metrics.

It would not be surprising if one of the other receivers overtook Doubs in routes and production in the coming season.

Malik Heath

Heath played behind the rest of the receivers, even Melton, who was activated from the practice squad halfway through the season. Heath was undrafted in 2023 and added as a free agent by the Packers prior to the season. He is a depth piece.

Pass Catchers to Acquire

With LaFleur’s and Love’s tendency to get air under the ball, the outside receivers are preferable to the tight ends, who saw mostly short area targets. If Watson continues as the field stretcher and Reed is in the slot, one of the other outside receivers could see usable possession work. Wicks displayed impressive efficiency metrics and route-running chops, and is the best option besides Reed and Watson. Wicks is very affordable due to the ambiguity of the receiver group.

LaFleur and Love are putting together a formidable offense, with a workhorse back in Jacobs, to boot. Buy into this offense now. Reed and Watson are also acquirable in dynasty, at WR34 and WR48, respectively, per fantasycalc.com. Once the Green Bay offense fully takes flight in the coming season, they are going to be much more difficult to acquire.

Read Joel Ybarra’s breakdown on the Kirk Cousins signing in Atlanta here: Kirk Cousins to Atlanta | Drake London and Kyle Pitts Ascend