Maximizing your fantasy points per salary dollar is the key to cashing in DFS. If you want to afford the best cash plays on the slate, dumpster diving for underpriced value plays is the way to go. With very few viable cheap WRs, it will be quite difficult to afford the best RBs in the same lineup without some creativity. Here are the best DFS Flex values for Week 9 based on PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics.
Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
DraftKings: $4900, FanDuel: $5900
Those who want to afford Dalvin Cook and Chase Edmonds in their cash lineups will likely need to pay down at one RB spot. Justin Jackson is the best pay-down option after he took command of the Los Angeles backfield last week. He took 17 carries and saw five targets, easily pacing Joshua Kelley in both. He turned those 23 opportunities into 142 total yards and 17.2 (No. 8) fantasy points. Troymaine Pope also came out of nowhere and saw 15 touches, but he is unlikely to suit up with a concussion. Jackson has played well ahead of Kelley and will do the same on Sunday.
Check out Justin Jackson on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
This also looks like an ideal game to target. The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders. This game also has the third-highest total on the slate at 51.5 points. Sharp DFS gamers will want to play the RB that’s favored at home with a high total. The Raiders rank No. 31 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Jackson looks like an obvious free square and may carry extra ownership in cash contests.
DeeJay Dallas, RB, Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings: $5000, FanDuel: $5100
Last week, Chris Carson was ruled out right before the early games kicked off and nobody was able to get on the min-priced DeeJay Dallas. He touched the ball 23 times and found the end zone twice with only Travis Homer to contend with. Carson and Carlos Hyde have already been ruled out this week, meaning everyone will have a chance to get on the Seahawks RB, albeit at a higher price.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKRrpuZg5tU
Aside from his two scores last week, Dallas hasn’t been impressive this season. He averages 3.4 Yards per Touch, and his 10.3-percent Juke Rate would rank outside the top 60 if he had enough touches to qualify. He has caught nine of his 10 targets, but his 5.0-percent (25th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share indicates he isn’t a talented receiver. He is really just a body out there in one of league’s best offenses. Most of the time, that’s really all we need in DFS.
The Bills also rank No. 24 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and this game projects to be the biggest shootout on the slate with a 54.5 total. Even at his low price, Dallas will need a touchdown to hit value this week. He really should only be played if you want to differentiate from Justin Jackson at the same price. His ownership will be high and his range of outcomes is wide without a score.
Marcus Johnson, WR, Indianapolis Colts
DraftKings: $3000, FanDuel: $4900
Some lineups may need a true min-priced punt play at WR this week. Given injuries to T.Y. Hilton and Ashton Dulin, Marcus Johnson is set to play nearly every down for the Colts. He has already been playing the valuable deep threat role for Indianapolis, seeing a 16.4 Average Target Distance mark and a 25.2-percent Air Yards Share. That role is perfect for his athletic profile.
Marcus Johnson in 2020:
• 4 games
• 11 receptions
• 6 catches of +20 yards pic.twitter.com/8bfQJElfkp— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 3, 2020
At 6-1 and 204-pounds, Johnson possesses a 105.0 (83rd-percentile) Speed Score and a 130.4 (89th-percentile) Burst Score. He’s basically a size-speed freak that has excellent leaping ability, which is why he has posted a 66.7-percent (No. 9) Contested Catch Rate. Obviously the floor isn’t that great, but Johnson offers a solid ceiling given his role.
Danny Amendola, WR, Detroit Lions
DraftKings: $3700, FanDuel: $5300
With Kenny Golladay sidelined by a hip injury, his 6.4 targets per game will be distributed throughout the Lions WR corps. Danny Amendola figures to absorb a few of those in his shallow slot role, giving DFS gamers a solid floor option for cash lineups. Marvin Hall ($3800 DK, $4600 FD) will also see an expanded role, and he’s seen a ridiculous Average Target Distance of 22.5 yards. Hall’s ceiling would obviously be higher than Amendola’s, who is 35 years old and seeing an Average Target Distance of 10.6. But this is a similar situation to the Denzel Mims vs. Braxton Berrios dilemma that we experienced last week. Hall might be more exciting on paper, but DFS gamers should chase the role and sure volume of Amendola.
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons
DraftKings: $4100, FanDuel: $5600
Hayden Hurst has been quietly productive all season. Atlanta has averaged 41.8 (No. 5) Team Pass Plays Per Game and Hurst averages 33.4 (No. 2) Routes Run Per Game. He already averages 5.8 (No. 11) targets per game and ranks top 10 in receptions, yards, and touchdowns on the season. Now we take Calvin Ridley out of the lineup, and he will be set up as the clear No. 2 option in the Atlanta passing game.
Hayden Hurst Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Given how Hurst has already seen four (No. 7) Deep Targets and 412 (No. 3) Air Yards, we can expect him to pick up a few of each from Ridley, who leads the NFL in both categories. The game environment isn’t ideal. The Broncos rank No. 10 in Defensive Passing DVOA, but the Falcons defense is so bad that this game can easily shootout. Hurst projects for plenty of targets, both deep and in the red zone. He should be a cash lineup lock at his price.
