Dynasty Market Movers: Week 5 Report

by Steve Smith · Dynasty Leagues

Another week in the NFL and another strong performance by a wide receiver drafted in 2020. This time, Steelers WR Chase Claypool joined the rookie WR breakout party with four total touchdowns and 110 receiving yards. This talented group of pass-catchers continues to live up to the hype. Although this shouldn’t come as a surprise since the advanced stats and metrics did signal it. Here are the Dynasty Market Movers featured for Week 5.

Market Follow-Up

Justin Jefferson took a step back production-wise in a rainy contest in Seattle. He caught three passes on five targets for 23 yards, but did run a season-high 40 routes on an 83.8-percent Snap Share. There is no need to panic, better days are ahead for the rookie wideout.

Anthony Miller continued to lose snaps to Darnell Mooney versus Tampa Tom and his Buccaneers last Thursday night. Miller played 44.6-percent of the snaps and ran 20 routes. These are his second-lowest marks on the season. On the contrary, Mooney ran 33 routes with a 71.4-percent Snap Share. Miller’s dynasty stock remains down.

Week 4 Market Watchlist candidate, Devin Duvernay, maintained his 27.0-percent Snap Share for the second consecutive week. The Ravens rookie WR caught two passes for 17 yards and showed his speed on an end-around for a big 42-yard gain. Miles Boykin was not productive on the day, keep monitoring this situation.

Stock Trending Up – Henry Ruggs

After missing the past two games due to injury, Henry Ruggs returned to action with a splash. The No. 12 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft posted 118 yards on two receptions en route to an upset win against the Chiefs. His 4.27 wheels were on full display on a 72-yard touchdown in the second quarter. He added a spectacular contested catch to show the people that he’s not just about the speed.

Going into Week 5, Ruggs’ dynasty stock had taken a hit. Expectations were high for him after being drafted as the first wide receiver off the board in April. However, Ruggs had only four catches for 59 yards and no touchdowns over his first two games. In addition, while he sat out nursing his hamstring injury, 2020 WR classmates such as Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins took center stage with an array of impressive performances.

Henry Ruggs 2020 Game Logs

Ruggs’ explosive game last week has likely closed any buy-low window, but there may still be a chance to acquire him at value. His 12.0-percent Target Share ranks No. 86 among qualified wide receivers, and he’s drawn only 11 (No. 99) targets. That’s not much volume, but his metrics are positive. He averages 2.80 (No. 8) Fantasy Points per Target and gaining 3.00 (No. 2) yards of Target Separation. With his blazing speed, big gains tend to happen when the ball is thrown his way. An uptick in targets (and not just deep ones) can result in a real explosion for the Las Vegas Raider.

Check out Henry Ruggs on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Dynasty Rankings and Projections:

In addition to the low target volume, gamers may feel that Ruggs’ upside is capped by Derek Carr and his unwillingness to push the ball deep. In reality, Carr averages 3.6 (No. 17) Deep Ball Attempts per Game, which is up from last year’s 2.9 (No. 30) mark. His Deep Ball Completion Percentage has also jumped to 55.6-percent (No. 9) in 2020 from 36.2-percent (No. 18) last year. As Ruggs gains more pro experience and earns more targets, his stock will only rise.

Stock Trending Down – Kenyan Drake

This was supposed to be the season that Kenyan Drake would lead his fantasy owners to a championship. He said so. Has the opportunity been there to make this happen? Yup. Has his production followed? Nope.

Through five games, Drake has a 63.2-percent (No. 16) Snap Share. He has 85 (No. 5) carries and 16 (No. 14) Red Zone Touches. All this volume has resulted in a frustrating 10.3 (No. 35) Fantasy Points per Game; a far cry from his expected RB1 outcome. As a result, Arizona’s lead rusher has fallen to RB23 on PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings, dropping over 17 Lifetime Value points. Given the usage, one would assume that regression is in store for Drake. Well, not for certain. He has been outproduced by teammate Chase Edmonds, who has only logged a 32.8-percent (No. 53) Snap Share.

Kenyan Drake 2020 Opportunity & Productivity Metrics

Drake’s role in the Cardinals passing game has been limited, making him somewhat Game Script dependent. He has six (No. 59) targets to 23 (No. 7) for Edmonds. On a Yards per Touch basis, Drake is at 3.7 (No. 52) yards, while Edmonds has a much loftier 6.1 (No. 5) mark. Drake has two (No. 24) touchdowns on his 16 Red Zone Touches, while Edmonds has three (No. 14) scores on half the opportunity with eight (No. 37) Red Zone Touches. Of course, Edmonds holds a Fantasy Points per Game edge with an 11.7 (No. 31) average.

Given the expectations entering the season for these two rushers, the outlook is far from ideal for Drake. His stock is trending down and he is a risky buy-low option. He is more of a sell.

Market Watchlist – Marquez Callaway

After the 2020 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints signed undrafted free agent wide receiver Marquez Callaway. He made a strong impression at training camp and secured himself a roster spot. The former Tennessee Volunteer has an impressive athletic profile. At 6-1 and 205-pounds, the 22-year old has a 95.7 (55th-percentile) Speed Score and 127.6 (82nd-percentile) Burst Score. He has a 33.1-percent (61st-percentile) College Dominator Rating and a 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age.

Marquez Callaway Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

With Michael Thomas out due to team discipline and Deonte Harris injured, Callaway saw his highest career usage in Week 5. Playing 71.2-percent of the snaps and running 34 routes, Callaway was targeted six times. The rookie caught four passes for 34 yards in Monday night’s overtime victory against the Chargers. Callaway was also involved on special teams, returning multiple kickoffs and punts for solid gains.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcrLWS1AnV0

With target hog Thomas expected back in Week 7, the UDFA will likely take a backseat. Nonetheless, he is someone to watch in dynasty leagues.