The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!
I am writing this up as of 12/17/2021. We have had a lot of movement from players being potentially out to potentially back in, to games being moved from Sunday to Monday and Tuesday of next week. This is one of those slates where things are changing and you are going to have to stay up to date on all of the news to have a chance in DFS this week.
Top 5 Values:
5) D’Onta Foreman: $5,200 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 17.85 (No. 7)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 17.74 (No. 3)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.75 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.25 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 40.74 percent
D’Onta Foreman Opportunity Metrics
D’Onta Foreman makes his debut on the list. A better FanDuel than DraftKings play, due to price and also just 1.2 targets per game (No. 87 among running backs), Foreman is going against the No. 31 rush defense in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is allowing on average 139.5 rushing yards per game. The risk with Foreman is that he has a low Snap Share (33-percent in Week 14, 47.6-percent in Week 12) and his floor is nearly zero. He is someone to would eliminate from one’s player pool, outside of potentially a 150 lineup MME build.
4) Melvin Gordon: $5,900 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 19.24 (No. 4)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 15.26 (No. 5)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.5 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.17 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 55.07 percent
It’s a tough week to find good values when Melvin Gordon is on the list. Someone that normally would not make the cut nor come close, finds themselves on the list this week. On the positive side, his 1.5 carries inside the 10-yard line per game is tied for No. 14 among all running backs, and tied for No. 4 among running backs on the slate. He averages 3.42 red zone touches per game, No. 5 among running backs. His snap share hovers near 50 percent in each game and is a boom-or-bust type of play. Last week he had 111 total yards and two touchdowns. Another week he can have as low as 32 total yards. Similar to Foreman, I am only interested if I am playing a large number of lineups.
3) Aaron Jones: $6,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 20.29 (No. 3)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 15.63 (No. 4)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.17 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.42 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 63.16 percent
Aaron Jones Game Log
Aaron Jones‘ usage has dropped off since he injured his shoulder. He has logged Snap Shares of 45.7-percent, 46.8-percent, and 48.4-percent in his last three games played. This is different from the 60-percent or so Snap Share he had prior to Week 10. Baltimore has the No. 1 rushing defense, and the No. 31 pass defense. I would roster him in GPP if running 10 or more lineups in tournaments. The tough matchup combined with the low snap shares, make him difficult to roster.
2) Myles Gaskin: $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 29.04 (No. 2)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 21.84 (No. 2)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.54 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.46 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 70.87 percent
Myles Gaskins’ 1.54 carries in the 10-yard line per game is No. 3 among running backs on the slate and his 0.45 targets inside the 10-yard line per game is tied for No. 1 among running backs on the slate. The Jets are No. 30 against the run, and the Dolphins are four-point favorites in the game as well. Gaskin is viable in both cash games and tournaments this week on DraftKings, however, due to several other players in his price range being good values, he likely will not be as popular, making him a better tournament play than cash game play.
On FanDuel, there are many running backs that are less expensive than Gaskin and deemed as better values. He is a GPP play over on FanDuel as he could be overlooked for the likes of players such as James Robinson and Ezekiel Elliott, and makes for a good pivot from one of those two running backs in a tournament.
1) Zack Moss: $4,400 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 30.61 (No. 1)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 23.60 (No. 1)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.5 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.3 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 67.69 percent
Zack Moss pops on a per-game basis, especially with carries inside the 10-yard line. He did not play in Week 14 and in Week 13 he had just a 47.4-percent Snap Share. It is clear that he is not part of the Bills’ plans in the future and he should not be part of your DFS lineup setting future.
Just Missed The Cut
DraftKings: James Conner (18.13), Najee Harris (17.99), Javonte Williams (17.00)
FanDuel: Ezekiel Elliott(15.45), James Conner (14.5), Najee Harris (13.85)
Final Thoughts
This is a tough week to find good reliable values in the index. The guys that are the best values in this index have the touchdown scoring upside but also have the upside of putting up zero points. Myles Gaskin is the only player on the list that has a trustworthy floor, the others have multiple touchdown upside but also have zero point downside.
