The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!
With being 17 percent of the way through the season, we have already seen significant injuries at running back (Dalvin Cook) and role changes. With more data points (games), you will see on the list familiar names we should be typically targeting in our DFS lineups on a weekly basis.
Below are the top five values on the High Value Touch DFS Index and a few players that almost made the cut.
Top 5 Values:
5) Najee Harris: $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 31.92 (No. 4 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 21.59 (No. 8 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 95 percent
Najee Harris 2021 Game Logs
Najee Harris is someone to have in your player pool each week, especially on DraftKings if he continues to be priced under $7,000. Last week, he received 19 targets! He is someone that is on the field all the time; his 97.1-percent Opportunity Share is No. 1 among running backs. Green Bay’s rush defense is average, allowing 115.3 yards per game. He has the floor we like to target in cash games, and his two touches inside the 10 per game give ceiling potential we can target in GPPs.
4) Ezekiel Elliott: $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 31.18 (No. 5 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 25.14 (No. 4 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.67 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.67 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 92.31 percent
Ezekiel Elliott 2021 Opportunity Metrics
Ezekiel Elliott had a bounce-back after the fantasy community was ready to write him off for Tony Pollard. Suddenly, he is No. 8 in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line per game, yet less expensive than other options such as Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb, players that are averaging close to what Elliott is now averaging inside the 10-yard line. Dallas is facing Carolina, the No. 1 rush defense so far allowing 45 rushing yards per game. Additionally, he is No. 22 with a 57.3-percent Opportunity Share. This week, Elliott is a player to have in your pool for tournaments for touchdown upside, but is not the safest play for cash games.
3) Jonathan Taylor: $6,300 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 32.96 (No. 3 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 29.44 (No. 3 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.67 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.33 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 64.86 percent
Jonathan Taylor 2021 Opportunity and Productivity Metrics
Jonathan Taylor continues to be a great bargain because he has not scored a touchdown yet this year. The lack of touchdown scoring is keeping his fantasy points low and his price low. He only has one target inside the 10-yard line all year, however, he is No. 2 behind Derrick Henry in carries inside the 10-yard line and comes heavily discounted from Henry. Provided he is healthy, he is bound to score touchdowns and has the upside to have a two or three-touchdown performance. Miami has the No. 27 rush defense allowing 136 rushing yards per game. Week 4 could be the week that Taylor hits his upside.
2) Aaron Jones: $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 35.71 (No. 2 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 31.76 (No. 2 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 80.0 percent
Aaron Jones 2021 Opportunity Metrics
Aaron Jones is No. 7 in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line and No. 1 among running backs in Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line. He is also averaging 1.67 touchdowns per game. He is starting to get priced up but still shows up at No. 2 on the index because he is less expensive than Alvin Kamara, yet is getting more work inside the 10-yard line, and less expensive than Derrick Henry yet is getting more receiving targets inside the 10-yard line. Pittsburgh’s run defense is No. 8 allowing 88.3 rushing yards per game. Jones is a player I am more likely to target in tournaments than cash games this week.
1) Zack Moss: $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 53.30 (No. 1 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 43.75 (No. 1 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 3.5 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.5 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 58.98 percent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I9I2GMLGQ4
Suddenly, Zack Moss leads running backs with carries inside the 10-yard line, averaging 3.5 per game. He is far and away No. 1 on the index on both sites. They face the Houston Texans, a team that has an average rush defense (No. 18 allowing 116.3 rushing yards per game) and will likely get blown out this week. The point spread is 16.5 points at the time of this writing. The concern here is Devin Singletary, who has the higher Snap Share, the higher Opportunity Share, and the higher Weighted Opportunities in the Buffalo backfield. Singletary was No. 5 in the index just last week. Moss is someone I am fine with putting out in a GPP lineup. I do not have a sense of his workload to trust him in a cash game lineup.
Just Missed The Cut
DraftKings: D’Andre Swift (29.57), Mark Ingram (28.79), Mike Davis (28.36), Darrell Henderson (25.89), David Johnson (23.56)
FanDuel: Mark Ingram (25.53), Darrell Henderson (24.17), Mike Davis (21.85), D’Andre Swift (20.35), Devin Singletary (17.13)
Final Thoughts
All of these running backs provide touchdown upside to target in tournament lineups. They all should be in your player pool when creating tournament lineups. However, not all are cash viable. Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris are two of the five I am comfortable putting in a cash game lineup because their opportunity and opponents they are facing in Week 4 give them a floor we can rely on. Taylor is someone I especially want to play a lot of because the touchdowns are coming, and when they do he will be much more expensive than he is now.
We will come back for Week 5 with an update to the index! Best of luck in Week 4!
