The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!
After surviving a tough bye week in Week 7, things are looking up as far as players we might want to roster on our DFS teams.
Below are the top five values on the High Value Touch DFS Index that are on the Main Slate on Sunday, along with a few players that almost made the cut.
Top 5 Values:
5) Jonathan Taylor: $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 22.72 (No. 5 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 18.57 (No. 4 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.43 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.14 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 72.15 percent
Jonathan Taylor Productivity Metrics
Jonathan Taylor is back on the main slate and back on this list for Week 8. He is tied for No. 1 with Derrick Henry with 2.43 carries inside the 10-yard line per game and comes at a $2k discount on FanDuel and a $1.7k discount on DraftKings from Henry. The lack of targets inside the 10-yard line is what has Taylor at No. 5 this week and not closer to the top. He faces a good Tennessee run defense, No. 9 in the NFL, allowing 103.3 rushing yards per game. This week, Taylor is GPP viable. I am concerned about his productivity against a good run defense, especially when Taylor is just No. 18 among running backs with 2.6 receptions per game.
4) Najee Harris: $7,500 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 24.45 (No. 4 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 18.57 (No. 5 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.33 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.67 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 88.10 percent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aGrH8avh7s
Najee Harris leads all running backs in Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line with 0.67 per game, and he leads all running backs in Red Zone Snap Share at 88.10 percent. Similar to Taylor, he is expensive on both sites and he is facing an even better run defense. Cleveland is No. 2 in opponent rushing yards per game, allowing just 80.4 yards per game. Harris averages 7.7 targets per game, which is No. 2 among running backs, so there might be more safety with this play than it appears at first glance. Because he will not be as popular as many other plays, I like him better in GPPs than cash games this week.
3) Leonard Fournette: $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 25.62 (No. 3 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 20.83 (No. 3 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.00 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.29 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 62.50 percent
Leonard Fournette Opportunity Metrics
Leonard Fournette is tied for No. 4 among running backs in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line with 2.0 per game. He has a similar production profile to Jonathan Taylor inside the 10-yard line but comes at a $900 discount from him on DraftKings and a $1.3k discount from Taylor on FanDuel. He faces New Orleans, the No. 3 rush defense in the league, allowing just 80.8 rushing yards per game. Fournette does average 4.9 targets per game, No. 5 among running backs. Similar to the two previous players on the list, I like Fournette better in GPPs than cash games because of who he is facing this week.
2) Mike Davis: $5,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 27.5 (No. 2 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 21.36 (No. 2 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.5 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 60.32 percent
Mike Davis Game Logs
Mike Davis‘ usage in the red zone and inside the 10-yard line has been decreasing, but so has his price, keeping him ranked high on this list (last week he was No. 1). His carries and targets inside the 10-yard line have been dropping, along with his Red Zone Snap Share. At this point, he is not someone I would roster in any lineups as he showed last week that he can play a significant number of snaps and have a floor of just one point.
1) Zack Moss: $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 34.53 (No. 1 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 26.82 (No. 1 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.4 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 71.95 percent
Zack Moss Opportunity Metrics
Zack Moss is No. 1 this week, as he is tied for No. 4 among running backs in carries inside the 10-yard line. Moss is also tied for No. 9 in targets inside the 10-yard line per game. Miami does not have a strong run defense, No. 19 in the league. Moss played 51.3 percent of the snaps in Week 3, 59.2 percent of the snaps in Week 4, 66.7 percent of the snaps in Week 5, and then 53.4 percent of the snaps in Week 6. With a cash game viable running back, I generally want them to play 70 percent or more of the snaps. He is someone I would have in my player pool for GPPs, especially if playing 10 or more lineups.
Just Missed The Cut
DraftKings: James Robinson (20.13), D’Andre Swift (18.93), Myles Gaskin (18.09), Damien Harris (17.70)
FanDuel: Damien Harris (15.61), James Robinson (15.39), D’Andre Swift (14.85)
Final Thoughts
This week we see the return to the list of several good running backs in Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris. Taylor, Harris, and Leonard Fournette face some of the top rushing defenses in the league. This means that their floor will be lower than if they were facing weak opponents, but their work inside the 10-yard line gives them upside, where they could score a couple of touchdowns and boost your DFS lineup this week. Moss is a GPP play because he doesn’t get enough volume to be viable for cash. Remove Mike Davis from your player pool.
