Week 13 saw us get 2.5 of three hot takes booked. If D.J. Chark or Chris Conley had booked a top-20 performance, we would’ve had our first sweep of the season. This week we’re chasing the sweep with a few running backs scorchers. Let’s see what the advanced data and stats say about some sneaky rushers this week.
Kenyan Drake is a Top-10 Back
Box score scouts will tell us that David Johnson has a role in the Arizona offense. Those people are what we like to call “Dirty Liars.” Johnson carried the ball four times last week and was targeted twice. Only one of those six opportunities came in the first half. Kenyan Drake rushed 13 times and was targeted five times. Exactly half of his opportunities came in the first half. Kliff Kingsbury chose to give Johnson one shot until the Cardinals were down 20 at halftime. Drake is the starter and Johnson is a backup that only figures to see the field when a game is out of hand, one way or the other. Chase Edmonds did not play an offensive snap.
Check out Kenyan Drake on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
With Drake holding a firm grip over the backfield, he’ll be in line for more touches than most expect against Pittsburgh this week. The Cardinals are underdogs at home by less than a field goal.
Drake has averaged 13.5 carries and 4.6 targets per game in Arizona and now he gets to play with the closest thing to neutral game script that he’ll be afforded this year. Buy him before he gets priced, and rostered, like the workhorse that he is.
Hunter Henry Goes Over 20 DraftKings Points
Hunter Henry has been nothing short of unstoppable since returning in short order from his knee injury. From Week 6 onward, no tight end has more total target depth than Henry (535) and only two players have more targets (52). Despite the volume, he has failed to hit 20 points in a game since Week 6.
Henry has also been efficient in the face of Philip Rivers‘ demise.
Hunter Henry 2019 Efficiency Metrics
Henry’s +10.0 Production Premium and +24.4-percent Target Premium are both well within the top-10 among tight ends.
The Chargers face Jacksonville this week and their implied team total of 23 is high for a road team. This is probably because the Jaguars defense has fallen apart recently. They have allowed 34.3 points per game over their last three, 31st in the league.
Henry is in a great spot to kick the Jaguars defense while they’re down this week.
Bilal Powell Beats Le’Veon Bell’s Season Average of 14.7 Points by five
Le’Veon Bell has been downgraded to out, elevating Bilal Powell or Ty Montgomery to a starting role this week. Powell is going to take over a three-down role while Montgomery watches on from the sidelines. We know this because Montgomery had a role early in the season and has been usurped by Powell in recent weeks.
Weeks 1-7:
Powell – 3 carries, one target
Montgomery – 11 carries, eight targets
Weeks 8-13:
Powell – 29 carries, six targets
Montgomery – 8 carries, four targets
The Jets began the year with Powell as a healthy scratch, got a good look at Montgomery, and decided that he was not the back they wanted to take the field when Bell came off. With Bell off for a full game, their use of Powell points to a workhorse role for the veteran until Bell gets healthy.
This is a phenomenal week for Powell to take over as the Jets face Miami and have an implied team total of 25.5 points. The Dolphins have been inefficient as a defense in every facet and that is especially true when looking at how they’ve defended opposing backs through the air. Miami is allowing the second-highest catch rate (84.4-percent) and fourth-highest yards per target (7.5).
Powell, who has three seasons of 50 targets to his name, should have no problem making Bell look replaceable this week.
