With Sam Darnold moving from the New York Jets to the Carolina Panthers, many fantasy gamers are touting him as a buy in SuperFlex leagues. The main point propelling his value spike is the coach-centric narrative that any player who leaves Adam Gase’s system instantly becomes fantasy relevant. Ryan Tannehill is the most relevant example, given he has averaged 18.5 and 21.8 Fantasy Points per Game in 2019 and 2020 respectively since joining the Titans (No. 9 among qualified quarterbacks in each year) after his fantasy stock plummeted under Gase’s watch. Using PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics can help us determine whether Darnold has any real chance to follow in Tannehill’s footsteps.
The Adam Gase Effect
Ryan Tannehill’s recent explosion into fantasy relevance has many players blindly betting on a similar boom from Sam Darnold, but this analysis is greatly underrating Tannehill’s efficiency while playing with Adam Gase. During his time under Gase, Tannehill posted above average marks in Yards per Attempt, Completion Percentage, and Touchdown Percentage. His inability to stay healthy paired with Gase’s slow offense kept him from putting up impactful fantasy performances, but he was still an efficient passer.
Ryan Tannehill & Sam Darnold Passing Efficiency Under Adam Gase
In contrast, Darnold has been greatly below the league average in each of these statistics while playing under Gase. Both of these players suffered from low passing volume with Gase’s offense never topping No. 22 in Passing Attempts with either player under center. The real difference is that Tannehill was able to make the best of his opportunities while Darnold has wasted them.
Sam Darnold’s 2020 Campaign
In 2020, Sam Darnold averaged 6.1 (No. 33) Yards per Attempt and 0.33 (No. 33) Fantasy Points Per Dropback. Despite only playing in 12 games, he recorded 36 (No. 6) Danger Plays along with 29 (No. 4) Interceptable Passes. To put that stat dump into words, he was a bottom-five quarterback in nearly every statistic in 2020. His 11.9 (No. 33) Fantasy Points per Game wouldn’t even give fantasy gamers an edge over starting players like DeVante Parker, who also scored 11.9 (No. 39 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game, in their SuperFlex spot.
Sam Darnold 2020 Advanced Efficiency Metrics
There have been 18 starting quarterbacks with at least five games played to average fewer than 6.5 Yards per Attempt since the 2012 season. By the end of the subsequent season, 11 of those 18 (or 61-percent) were benched or replaced. Only four of these players ever posted top-12 fantasy seasons during the remainder of their career. These are not numbers that point towards success for Darnold after 2020. He is nearly three times more likely to be benched this year than to provide your team with any fantasy advantage during his career.
Conclusion and Potential Trade Targets
Sam Darnold is being drafted as a fringe top 100 player in SuperFlex startups. Despite producing fantasy production comparable to a mediocre wide receiver, he is still being priced near much more effective quarterbacks, and that can be used to gain value. If there is another manager who believes that there is hope for Darnold to have his breakout season, now is the time to cash in.
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Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, and Cam Newton are all currently being drafted after Darnold in SuperFlex startups at MyFantasyLeague. Each of these quarterbacks would be an upgrade. If another leaguemate is willing to add to one of these players, you’d be taking a huge win.
