Six weeks into the NFL season, DFS grinders now have a significant data sample to examine ahead of each week. Looking to Week 7, advanced stats and metrics point to a few distinct edges we can exploit in this slate of games. Here are a few value plays and GPP targets for the DraftKings’ Week 7 Main Slate.
Kyler Murray ($6,700) – Arizona Cardinals
One of the NFL’s few quarterbacks with double bonus upside, Kyler Murray continues to use his arm and legs to beat opposing defenses. Murray now ranks fifth among quarterbacks with 238 pass attempts, while rushing at the third highest rate with 39 carries. He has a 71.5-percent (No. 11 among qualified quarterbacks) True Completion percentage and put together fantasy’s QB5 and QB4 performances over the past two weeks. Only growing in the Arizona offense, Murray is a solid play across formats.
Check out Kyler Murray on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
The New York Giants allow the second-most yards to opposing passing attacks (1,822). The Giants recently allowed Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins to eclipse the 300-yard passing mark. Playing in a game with a point total sitting at 50.5, Murray provides a strong value in cash games and enough upside to warrant GPP consideration in Week 7.
Tevin Coleman ($5,600) – San Francisco 49ers
Since returning from injury, Tevin Coleman played 30-percent and 56-percent of the 49ers’ snaps over the last two games. More importantly, Coleman received carry counts of 16 and 18, leading to two top-20 performances at the running back position. Digging deeper yet, Coleman has out-carried Matt Breida eight to one in the red zone since his return, creating an opportunity for a multi-touchdown performance in future weeks.
Tevin Coleman Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
This week, the 49ers remain 9.5-point favorites over Washington. Already running at the highest rate in football, game script points to a heavy dosage of Coleman in this contest. Washington ranks bottom-ten in rushing and receiving yardage allowed to opposing backs. Priced as a time share back, Coleman’s usage remains on par with many of the slate’s bell-cow backs.
Leonard Fournette ($7,000) – Jacksonville Jaguars
Egregiously priced at $7,000, Leonard Fournette‘s 91.5-percent Opportunity Share ranks second among all running backs. While Fournette only has one touchdown on the year, he has 584 (No. 3) rushing yards and averages six targets per game. Fournette has also received 23 red zone opportunities this season, making his lone touchdown even more egregious. Also ranking third with 259 Yards Created, Fournette brings the complete package to this week’s matchup.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUsF80-WmQs
The Jaguars currently stand as four point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals. Already playing without Carlos Dunlap, the Bengals allow the second-most rushing yards (759) and receiving yards (401) to opposing running backs. With volume and matchup on his side, Fournette is a lock at $7,000.
Tyler Boyd ($5,600) – Cincinnati Bengals
With 59 (No. 4) targets through six weeks, Tyler Boyd remains too cheap at $5,600. Efficiency metrics have not been kind to Boyd and the Bengals this season. However, he continues to dominate opportunity in this offense, evidenced by his 18.5-percent (No. 4) Hog Rate. Cincinnati also continues to pass at the highest rate in football, creating a high floor for Boyd each week.
Looking at matchup, Boyd now faces a Jalen Ramsey-less Jaguars team. In recent weeks, the Jaguars limited mediocre passers Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen, but Joe Flacco recently eclipsed 300 passing yards in this matchup. With Boyd playing in the slot 55.8-percent of the time, Cincinnati can funnel targets to him in this spot.
Robert Woods ($5,900) – Los Angeles Rams
After an atrocious performance last week, Robert Woods and the entire Rams offense enter a bounce-back spot against the Atlanta Falcons. Woods has seen ample opportunity with 51 (No. 12) targets, and opposing defenses afford him 5.40 (No. 2) yards of Cushion. This provides him the opportunity to routinely create yards after the catch.
Examining the Falcons defense, Atlanta continues to struggle against opposing passers without Keanu Neal. The Falcons have allowed at least 340 passing yards each of the past two weeks. This game also brings us the highest over/under on the entire slate at 54.5. With a combination of matchup and volume working in his favor, Woods provides a direct pivot off T.Y. Hilton in GPPs.
Jake Kumerow ($3,600) – Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is the best team to target bargain basement wide receivers from. Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison all look unlikely to play in Week 7. This leaves some combination of Jake Kumerow, Allen Lazard and Darrius Shepherd to round out three-wide receiver sets. Last week, Kumerow led the group with an 88-percent Snap Share. While Lazard saw five targets, Kumerow also saw three and his role remains slightly more secure at the moment. While the sample remains small, Kumerow has created 2.67 yards of Target Separation this season, which would rank top ten in the NFL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ql5eEDLQy8w
Heading to Week 7, the Packers remain seven point favorites over the Oakland Raiders. While the Raiders remains middle-of-the-pack in most defensive metrics, Kumerow presents a size mismatch for opposing defenses. Standing 6-5, 208-pounds, Kumerow dwarfs the 6-0 Gareon Conley, who mans the outside for Oakland. At $3,600, Kumerow provides leverage off Lazard and allows gamers to jam multiple studs into their lineups.
Mark Andrews ($4,900) – Baltimore Ravens
For those looking for a discount tight end, Mark Andrews provides GPP-winning upside. Currently, he ranks fifth among tight ends with 47 targets and third with 435 Air Yards. Often running out of the slot, Andrews leads all tight ends with 3.60 Yards per Routes Run. He also consistently generates space with 2.00 (No. 5) average yards of Target Separation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m-GISedRhs
Andrews faces a porous Seattle secondary in a potential Week 7 shootout. The Seahawks currently allow the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (405). In their last two games, they allowed Gerald Everett and Ricky Seals-Jones to notch 136 and 47 yards respectively. With Marquise Brown trending the wrong direction, Andrews is a solid value play as Lamar Jackson‘s top target.
