PlayerProfiler is home to the award winning redraft rankings and tools. Our Player Rankings are second to none, and the World Famous Draft Kit contains detailed player write ups and cheat sheets to help You dominate fantasy drafts! Check it out. In this series, two PlayerProfiler analysts, Tyler Knaeble and Seth Diewold, face off in an ADP battle to settle the better pick at value: Joe Mixon or James Cook.
Joe Mixon (Underdog ADP: RB14, 61 Overall) | Tyler Knaeble
After being acquired by Houston this offseason, Joe Mixon is one of the more intriguing options at the running back position for 2024 fantasy football given the quality of the offense and all the opportunities he could see near the goal line this season. That is more than what can be said for James Cook.
From Weeks 9-18 last year, when Devin Singletary became the starter, he was the RB12 overall and averaged a Snap Share of 70-percent. That would have ranked eight best among all RBs and is coincidentally the same Snap Share percentage Joe Mixon had in 2023 with Cincinnati. That alone should tell you the Texans are more than comfortable giving a single RB the bulk of the opportunities. If you aren’t a believer in the numbers, maybe this quote from OC and play caller Bobby Slowik will help ease your mind. Slowik said, “[Mixon is] an absolute workhorse in every regard…He’s such a joy to coach.”
Red Zone Touches
As far as scoring opportunities go, the Texans project to be one of the NFL’s best offenses in 2024 with C.J. Stroud going into year two and the addition of Stefon Diggs to the receiving corps. Also, the gap between Mixon’s touchdown upside compared to Cook’s is laughable. Singletary didn’t become the full time starter until Week 9 and still had more red zone rushing attempts than Cook! Mixon has always had a stranglehold on his team’s red zone rushing attempts, totaling 78-percent of Cincinnati’s red zone attempts. That not only led the entire league, but was a whopping 10-percent higher than Derrick Henry who had the second-highest rate (68-percent).
Mixon isn’t the same back he was three years ago, but he’s still by far the Texans’ best running back with a knack for finding the end zone. One of the best sayings in fantasy football is “touchdowns are king” and there aren’t many other RBs that posses more touchdown upside than Mixon on the Texans offense, especially not James Cook. Cook had just four carries inside the five-yard line last year, compared to Mixon’s 17! The choice is easy – draft Joe Mixon!
See Tyler Knaeble’s Fantasy Sleepers for 2024 here: Fantasy Sleepers to Draft on Underdog Fantasy
James Cook (Underdog ADP: RB13, 56 Overall) | Seth Diewold
I’m very intrigued by James Cook this season. He is coming off a season in which he finished as the RB12 overall and the RB19 in fantasy points per game. The problem is his upside is going to be limited as long as Josh Allen is his QB. However, that doesn’t mean Cook shouldn’t be in line for a ton of volume in 2024.
The reason I believe the Bills are going to use Cook more is because they lost Gabriel Davis and Stefon Diggs. Those two wide receivers accounted for 241 targets in the offense. The Bills drafted Keon Coleman and signed Curtis Samuel in free agency, but I highly doubt those two receivers alone will account for all of the vacated targets in the Bills offense. That is where Cook’s role could grow in 2024 – as a weapon out of the backfield – and there is room for growth in 2024.
Last season, Cook ranked No. 23 in Snap Share, No. 18 in Opportunity Share, and No. 10 in Weighted Opportunities amongst running backs. Additionally, Cook ranked No. 19 in targets, No. 22 in red zone touches, and No. 24 in touchdowns amongst running backs. The Bills lost Latavius Murray, their second leading rusher other than Josh Allen in 2023. The Bills did draft Ray Davis in Round 4 of the NFL Draft, but the Bills running back depth chart features Cook clearly at the top, with Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, Darrynton Evans, and Frank Gore Jr. behind him. It would not shock me to see Cook’s role increase as the Buffalo offense evolves in the post-Stefon Diggs era. If we project Cook to have the same amount of opportunity in 2024 with more touchdown luck, this is what it could look like.
2024 Projection
- Carries – 237
- YPC – 4.5
- Rushing Yards – 1,067
- Targets – 54
- Receptions – 44
- YPR – 9.9
- Receiving Yards – 436
- Touchdowns – 9
- Total Fantasy Points – 248.3 (RB 8 in 2023, No. 38 overall scorer)
For fun, we could project slightly more volume, which is what I would guess would happen in Year 3 for James Cook. We can even factor in less efficiency to see what those numbers would look like. This would be a ceiling, best case scenario.
2024 Upside Projection
- Carries – 250
- YPC – 4.5
- Rushing Yards – 1,125
- Targets – 65
- Receptions – 52
- YPR – 9.5
- Receiving Yards – 494
- Touchdowns – 10
- Total Fantasy Points – 273.9 (RB 4 in 2023, No. 24 overall fantasy scorer)
Needless to say, there should be a ton of volume for Cook, and Cook has the efficiency we want to see from a pass catching running back out of the backfield.
Fantasy gamers just need touchdown luck to go Cook’s way in 2024. If he starts getting more opportunities in the passing game, this should lead to more touchdowns and more explosive plays. One would think the Bills would be inclined to use their talented running back more in the passing game.
See Seth’s Must Draft WRs for 2024 here: 6 Must Draft Wide Receivers for 2024 Fantasy Football
