The Weighted Opportunities DFS Value Index identifies undervalued running backs in daily fantasy. Each week, we will compare Weighted Opportunities Per Game and Opportunity Shares against FanDuel salaries at the running back position. Slight adjustments will be made to the final ranking to account for projected personnel changes, matchups, Game Script, and other information the value metric cannot capture on its own. The focus will be on players at or under $6,500 salary on FanDuel. The best lineups can and should be based around the true workhorse RBs, but these value plays can be useful to differentiate GPP lineups or find sneaky values in cash.
Last week, Ronald Jones delivered everything one could ask for from the top value running back with 25.1 half-PPR points in a dominating game from the Buccaneers. He is still not providing much in the passing game, so it is not recommended to keep investing as his price increases. Elsewhere, Myles Gaskin, James Robinson, Frank Gore, David Montgomery, David Johnson, and Adrian Peterson all provided mediocre to good production, though not enough to make much impact in a GPP. Devonta Freeman, Antonio Gibson and Damien Harris were all below value. Harris especially cannot be trusted moving forward. Bill Belichick will keep doing his thing. Week 7 is another chance to get it right!
No. 10) Rex Burkhead – FD $5,200
Value Rating: 26.20
Weighted Opportunities Per Game: 9.5 (No. 41 among qualified running backs)
Opportunity Share: 33.1-percent (No. 48)
Game Script: -1.53 (No. 18)
Rex Burkhead makes his first appearance in the top ten of the value rankings this week despite only getting five carries for fourteen yards last week against the Broncos.
Rex Burkhead Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
It is clear now that New England is deploying a three-headed backfield of Burkhead, Damien Harris and James White. Harris is the early down thumper and White is the primary pass catcher. This only leaves rooms for Burkhead as a change of pace for both roles. Unless you really want throw a low-owned GPP dart, Burkhead should be avoided.
No. 9) J.D. McKissic – FD $5,200
Value Rating: 29.97
Weighted Opportunities Per Game: 10.8 (No. 31)
Opportunity Share: 33.3-percent (No. 47)
Game Script: -8.27 (No. 29)
J.D. McKissic continues to find relevance in Washington as the team’s primary third down back. He has been a thorn in the side of Antonio Gibson enthusiasts all season long. Washington is again playing in a game where they are less than a touchdown underdog, so it is not the ideal time to deploy him. Still, there is a chance that Andy Dalton and the Cowboys offense get things on track this Sunday. If that happens, McKissic would be heavily involved in a comeback attempt.
No. 8) Adrian Peterson – FD $5,600
Value Rating: 32.42
Weighted Opportunities Per Game: 10.5 (No. 33)
Opportunity Share: 49.4-percent (No. 30)
Game Script: +1.15 (No. 14)
Those fantasy gamers excited by rookie performances likely lost their pants after D’Andre Swift’s awesome two touchdown performance last week. However, we should not be too swift to anoint Swift the team’s featured back. Adrian Peterson was banged up at the end of the game and Detroit was only trying to put the finishing touches on a dominating performance. This backfield will likely be a committee moving forward, but at the very least, Peterson should now be faded despite still having good opportunity numbers. There is just no way to know whether his stranglehold on the early down work will continue.
No. 7) Antonio Gibson – FD $5,700
Value Rating: 35.45
Weighted Opportunities Per Game: 12.2 (No. 29)
Opportunity Share: 49.4-percent (No. 30)
Game Script: -8.27 (No. 29)
Eventually, Antonio Gibson will get his chance at a featured role. Though with an abysmal offense and the Football Team likely be trailing in every remaining game, 2020 may not be the season where that happens. This can still be a usable week for Gibson though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lN86wXg4VZU
The Cowboys defense has been putrid all year. Gibson’s 50-percent touch share can amount to a superb performance if he can be hyper efficient with those touches. It is an intriguing play, especially in GPP formats.
No. 6) James White – FD $5,200
Value Rating: 36.23
Weighted Opportunities Per Game: 12.9 (No. 25)
Opportunity Share: 33.7-percent (No. 45)
Game Script: -1.53 (No. 18)
James White has maintained the same role in New England for years as the primary pass catcher out of the backfield. With Tom Brady, that made White an every-week top 20 back, but with a running quarterback like Cam Newton, there are less running back opportunities. This week’s matchup against the 49ers looks like a game that will be close. In other words, it’s not the spot to play White except for as a contrarian move.
No. 5) Devin Singletary – FD $6,200
Value Rating: 42.21
Weighted Opportunities Per Game: 13.4 (No. 22)
Opportunity Share: 69.3-percent (No. 12)
Game Script: +2.44 (No. 8)
There is a clear value jump from James White to Devin Singletary, whose 69.3-percent Opportunity Share is much closer to feature back territory. That share will go down when Zack Moss returns, but the question is which Bills offense we will get.
Devin Singletary 2020 Game Log
The Buffalo offense has looked much more stoppable against the Chiefs and Titans over the last two weeks. If they can return to their early season form, Singletary will be a smash value. An easy matchup against a Jets team that barely plays football is exactly what they need. Singletary is in a great spot to return value in cash at only $6,200.
No. 4) Kenyan Drake – FD $6,000
Value Rating: 43.97
Weighted Opportunities Per Game: 12.6 (No. 27)
Opportunity Share: 69.8-percent (No. 11)
Game Script: +2.96 (No. 7)
Kenyan Drake finally had the breakout rushing performance many were hoping for last week against the Cowboys. He would have been highly ranked here if that game had been on the main slate, so we can take a partial win at least.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=344RK_hbArg
This week’s matchup against one of the best offenses in football, the Seahawks, is less delectable. Drake is still seeing disappointing usage in the passing game with Chase Edmonds around. The Cardinals will need to throw the ball more than usual to keep up with Russell Wilson, so Drake can be safely avoided in most formats.
No. 3) Frank Gore – FD $5,100
Value Rating: 48.15
Weighted Opportunities Per Game: 9.9 (No. 37)
Opportunity Share: 53.5-percent (No. 25)
Game Script: -11.80 (No. 32)
Frank Gore is still getting opportunities. Sam Darnold may be back this week and he should be at least better than the corpse of Joe Flacco. Ultimately though, Gore cannot be relied upon due to his team situation. He will only provide real value if the Jets get a lead, which seems unlikely at this point. The only value Gore has is as a cheap option in cash if needed to make a lineup work.
No. 2) David Johnson – FD $6,300
Value Rating: 48.29
Weighted Opportunities Per Game: 13.9 (No. 20)
Opportunity Share: 79.9-percent (No. 5)
Game Script: -5.37
There are few running backs in the NFL that still command an 80-percent Opportunity Share in 2020. As such, fantasy gamers should put premiums on all of those backs. David Johnson continues to operate in that featured back role, despite putting up pedestrian efficiency numbers and advanced metrics.
David Johnson 2020 Game Logs
The Texans offense has been playing well, and they will need to put up points to keep up with the Packers this week. As such, Johnson is a solid play in all formats with both touchdown and reception potential.
No. 1) James Robinson – FD $6,400
Value Rating: 51.26
Weighted Opportunities Per Game: 15.3 (No. 16)
Opportunity Share: 80.4-percent (No. 4)
Game Script: -8.73 (No. 30)
Nothing James Robinson has done should have those playing him concerned. He is the team’s primary back and takes the majority of the receiving and goal line work. He has already shown that he can provide boom weeks when everything falls into place. Robinson should be in consideration every week as long as he is priced below the league’s other featured backs.
