Underworld vs RosterWatch Rookie Mock Recap #1

by Ray Marzarella · Draft Strategy

It’s RotoUnderworld vs. RosterWatch in a fierce, ongoing, totally-serious-with-no-room-for-cheeky-shenanigans series of fantasy football mock drafts. We begin with a recap of the first five-round rookie mock under the RW vs. RU banner.

I’m not exactly sure how to determine who wins in a mock draft of any sort. But if there is a way, you can bet that the six mock drafters on the Underworld side of the ledger will ride PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, metrics and analytics while the Team RosterWatch leverages their famous fantasy football cheat sheet in hopes of winning one of the all-time great mock draft showdowns.

fantasy-football-dynasty-league-rankings

On this occasion, I was on the outside looking in. If you want a perspective from the RosterWatch side and from one of the actual mock drafters, make sure to check out Alan Seslowsky’s recap. The crew was working with a basic PPR, single QB, non-TE Premium format.

1.01 – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Analyst: The Podfather (@Fantasy_Mansion) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Matt Forte 2.0 is the ultimate total package back will be a workhorse on day one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fHIcKWylP4

1.02 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Analyst: Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: There’s questions about Travis Etienne‘s weight, but Ja’Marr Chase is going to be a problem in the NFL from day one.

1.03 – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Analyst: Alex Dunlap (@AlexDunlapNFL) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Fast, all purpose skillset, getting harder and harder to decide between him and Javonte Williams, though.

1.04 – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Analyst: Byron Lambert (@BigNFLAction) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: One of the truly rare and elite prospects in this class with multiple pathways to success.

1.05 – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Analyst: The Trashman (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Heisman as a WR?!! When has Brett Favre ever been wrong?

1.06 – Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Getting Jermar at 1.06 is a reach for some right now, but by May this will be a steal. Think Doug Martin/Marshawn Lynch!

1.07 – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Analyst: Alan Seslowsky (@AlanSeslowsky) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Even in “start one” formats, I didn’t have to think twice about going with Lawrence. He is as can’t miss of a prospect that can be.

1.08 – Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

Analyst: Shane Seeley (@TheFlexNetwork1) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: The last true RB with a bellcow profile, getting JW at 1.08 is a steal. Over 1,100 yards, 22 TD and 25 receptions, yes please!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlYpQjwKluY&

1.09 – Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

Analyst: Ray Garvin (@RayGQue) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: A 30-percent Market Share at 18 years old  – 110-plus receptions, 1200-plus yards, most dynamic player in the class.

1.10 – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

Analyst: Ryan Lopes (@StillRyanFive) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Happy to take a player with no warts at the 1.10; checks all the boxes production-wise/analytically, athletically, etc.

1.11 – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Analyst: Nate Liss (@AnOutragedJew) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: When it’s all said and done, he could be the best Alabama wideout in this class.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=my80bdP_VRw

1.12 – Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

Analyst: Sully from Houston (@SullyFromHTown) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: LSU Pedigree. I’ll bet on that!

Round 1 Takeaways

I’ve included everyone’s individual, quick-hitting thoughts on their various selections within. But as far as my own takeaways, the first major one that I have is that Alan Seslowsky has created the blueprint for how to handle being flamed by The Podfather. Take note, buzzards, it will make your lives much easier moving forward.

As is the case in every mock draft, there will be picks that wildly stray from what is perceived to be consensus, depending on who you ask of course. The hash tag “Kyle Pitts No Matter What” (did I do that right?) crowd will have no issue with seeing him go at 1.04, even in a single QB, non-TE premium format. The first real Point of Divergence came with Cody Carpentier’s 1.06 selection of Jermar Jefferson over Javonte Williams. Though anyone who follows Cody’s work will know that he feels strongly about this and is not just being hot-takey.

Aside from that, nothing too earth shattering in the first round. I had Rondale Moore to Ray G and Rashod Bateman to Ryan Lopes penciled in before we started and I’m glad that held serve, because this particular pencil had no eraser.

Side note: ya’ll better hope someone else recaps the next one of these if you want fewer bad jokes.

2.01 – Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State

Analyst: The Podfather (@Fantasy_Mansion) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Chasing max upside with a face-melting speedster and the most landing spot-dependent player in the NFL Draft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fwftqj_wQlU

2.02 – Kenny Gainwell, RB, Memphis

Analyst: Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Fingers crossed that the guy who kept Antonio Gibson off the field in 2019 was hitting the gym and bulking up throughout 2020, Austin Ekeler-type ceiling here.

2.03 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC

Analyst: Alex Dunlap (@AlexDunlapNFL) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Slot machine and a fucking dog, I’ve loved him since high school.

2.04 – Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson

Analyst: Byron Lambert (@BigNFLAction) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Deebo Samuel/Jamison Crowder meets A.J. Brown. Rodgers was the best skill player at the Senior Bowl and is destined for PPR glory.

2.05 – D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan

Analyst: The Trashman (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Led the nation in all-purpose yards per game.

2.06 – Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Stefon Diggs 2.0 – Junior with back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons and NFL talent all around him. Smashing the button!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9rvOh9UTmI

2.07 – Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State

Analyst: Alan Seslowsky (@AlanSeslowsky) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Displayed a three-down skill set over the course of his college career. Had 23 receptions in only three games this year. Trying to hit a “double” here, not swing for the fences.

2.08 – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

Analyst: Shane Seeley (@TheFlexNetwork1) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: We’re not talking about this guy enough! In 2020, he only had one game with less than 10 receptions. Logged eight touchdowns in eight games with great YAC ability. Has a 91st-percentile College Dominator Rating, 96th-percentile College Target Share and 83rd-percentile Breakout Age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKa_Do-2884

2.09 – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Analyst: Ray Garvin (@RayGQue) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: After going best player available in Round 1, this is where quarterbacks should begin coming off the board in 1-QB formats.

2.10 – Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State

Analyst: Ryan Lopes (@StillRyanFive) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Wallace feels underrated at this point. I know it’s a good class, but hard to ignore the early-breakout and aggressive play style.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jch-8MWVIi4&feature=emb_title

2.11 – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Analyst: Nate Liss (@AnOutragedJew) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Rushing ability at the quarterback position has proven to be gold in fantasy football — now add in first-round draft capital.

2.12 – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Analyst: Sully from Houston (@SullyFromHTown) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: I feel like this a solid value pick at this spot. Didn’t want to pass it up.

Round 2 Takeaways

Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Zach Wilson all average top-10 NFL Draft selections in the mocks that comprise the Dynasty Deluxe Big Board. All were chosen in the final four picks of this mock’s second round. With so much QB depth, I would personally look to follow the strategy of pairing an elite WR in the first round with one of these second round signal callers if picking somewhere in the back four spots (depending how the board falls, of course).

Only Lopes and Trashman double-dipped at a position to start off, with both going WR-WR. The second round rookie draft landscape reinforces the notion that while this class is top-heavy at RB, it’s super deep at the WR position. 

D’Wayne Eskridge is a player whose value appears to be all over the place; at least if the Underworld rookie mocks we’re conducting (write-ups coming soon) are any indication. While he goes at 2.05 here to RosterWatch’s Trashman, he went at 3.03 and 4.07 in two SF/TE Premium Underworld mocks. Meanwhile, I snagged him at the 5.01 in a single QB setting. I can understand reaching for your guy, but this tells me that he’s a player who doesn’t necessarily need to be reached for. He’s a player whose ADP will be worth monitoring in the coming months.

3.01 – Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State

Analyst: The Podfather (@Fantasy_Mansion) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Terry may enter the NFL Draft with the best Speed Score in this class. Let that sink in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlhcBVbFfwA

3.02 – Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn

Analyst: Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Really like Schwartz’ upside in Round 3, Percy Harvin is a decent high-end comp.

3.03 – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

Analyst: Alex Dunlap (@AlexDunlapNFL) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: I realize that RosterWatch and RotoUnderworld are both lower on Toney than most, but this is too far for him to slip. He’ll come with draft capital due to speed alone.

3.04 – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Analyst: Byron Lambert (@BigNFLAction) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Poor man’s Joe Burrow– Jones is an awesome QB prospect.

3.05 – Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina

Analyst: The Trashman (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Probably not a lead back, but could give defenses nightmares in the right scheme.

3.06 – Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: TE2 at Pick No. 30 is an incredible value when he has Gronkowski-like traits, and second-round projected draft capital.

3.07 – Brevin Jordan, TE, Florida

Analyst: Alan Seslowsky (@AlanSeslowsky) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: All of the TE hype is (rightfully) focused on Kyle Pitts. Jordan has big plays on tape. There is momentum for him getting picked in the second round of the NFL Draft.

3.08 – Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina

Analyst: Shane Seeley (@TheFlexNetwork1) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Queue up Shy Guy. I was hoping to land one of those TEs, but Smith is a dog who had brutal QB play in college. A decent lottery ticket.

3.09 – Javian Hawkins, RB, Louisville

Analyst: Ray Garvin (@RayGQue) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Hawkins is one of the most electrifying players in this class. If he comes in at over 195-pounds, getting him in the back end of the third round will be a steal.

3.10 – Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State

Analyst: Ryan Lopes (@StillRyanFive) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Had to snag a RB before things really dried-up; think Sermon has a three-down build and skill set (better pass-catcher than given credit for).

3.11 – Jaret Patterson, RB, Buffalo

Analyst: Nate Liss (@AnOutragedJew) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: From this point in the draft it’s all about upside, and Patterson’s 1,072 yards in six games screams it despite the size.

3.12 – Demetric Felton, WR, UCLA

Analyst: Sully from Houston (@SullyFromHTown) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Watching Felton dominate the wide receiver position at the Senior Bowl, it’s clear that the NFL views him as a dynamic slot receiver rather than a running back.

Round 3 Takeaways

This is the first and only round in which fewer than six wide receivers were drafted, and there were still five picked in this third stanza. One of whom, Kadarius Toney, is already being mocked into the first round of the NFL Draft by a number of sites. If that doesn’t speak to the depth of the position this year, then nothing will.

Both Lopes and Trashman left the comfort of the deep WR waters and dipped their toe into the more shallow RB pool in this third round. Though Michael Carter and Trey Sermon were only the eighth and ninth backs picked, it’s hard to imagine that they’ll both stay in this range for long as the pre-draft process wears on.

That’s a fancy way of saying these were good picks.

– Check out the Dynasty Deluxe “Big Board” for 10+ Mocks from across the industry.

Mac Jones is another QB who is likely earmarked for the NFL Draft’s first round. If his ADP continues to live in this third round range, it would make sense to plan a draft strategy around bypassing the round one and two signal callers and targeting Jones in the third. This strategy netted me Justin Herbert in a number of 2020 rookie mocks.

4.01 – Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana-Lafayette

Analyst: The Podfather (@Fantasy_Mansion) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Relegated Trey Ragas with feature back size and an all-purpose skillset — just needs to demonstrate athleticism to check all the boxes.

4.02 – Seth Williams, WR, Auburn

Analyst: Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Alpha WR size, projected fourth-round draft capital, WR18 is a “steal” in that sense… ehhh, he could go to a wide open WR room and get looks. Stranger things have happened (can you tell I was eyeing a few guys taken just before my pick?).

4.03 – Rakeem Boyd, RB, Alabama

Analyst: Alex Dunlap (@AlexDunlapNFL) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Comes with off-field concerns, but is a special runner with requisite size, will be a committee-type back in the NFL who can have value if finding his way to becoming a lead runner.

4.04 – Larry Rountree, RB, Missouri

Analyst: Byron Lambert (@BigNFLAction) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Right on time :)

4.05 – Dez Fitzpatrick, WR, Louisville

Analyst: The Trashman (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Could have consistency issues, but he showed us that he could be a complete receiver with a solid Senior Bowl.

4.06 – Marlon Williams, WR, UCF

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: 4-Star recruit out of high school, 105 targets and 1,000 receiving yards in eight games in 2020. Has projected third-round draft capital and is built like a RB.

4.07 – Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma

Analyst: Alan Seslowsky (@AlanSeslowsky) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Watch the 2020 Cotton Bowl to get a glimpse of the upside. Stevenson rushed for 186 yards and a touchdown.

4.08 – Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

Analyst: Shane Seeley (@TheFlexNetwork1) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: An overall athlete with great size (6-3, 215-pounds) and an elite, 90th-percentile College Dominator Rating. He is still raw but could carve out a role in the NFL. A great taxi squad player.

4.09 – Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville

Analyst: Ray Garvin (@RayGQue) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: I considered Tutu in the third, so to get him here feels like a STEAL. Has 4.2 wheels and projected day two draft capital – fantastic sophomore season production. Sign me up.

4.10 – Nico Collins, WR, Michigan

Analyst: Ryan Lopes (@StillRyanFive) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Collins looks like a Day 2 player. Give me the “better on Sundays than in college” cliché here, please.

4.11 – Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech

Analyst: Nate Liss (@AnOutragedJew) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Not the youngest RB, but what he can do after contact plus his explosiveness at 212-pounds has to put him on your radar.

4.12 – Tre McKitty, TE, Georgia

Analyst: Sully from Houston (@SullyFromHTown) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Arguably the second-most athletic tight end in this class, McKitty put a great showing together at the Senior Bowl and proved he’s ready for the NFL.

Round 4 Takeaways

The fourth and fifth rounds of rookie drafts are typically dart throw/get your guy rounds. One or two guys can certainly hit, granted, but it’s really a coin flip as to whether the guy you drafted is that player. Especially when drafting in March. As such, I’m taking the fact that the Underworld put RosterWatch on full tilt mode when Ryan Lopes secured the services of Michigan’s Nico Collins as an overall checkmark in our favor.

In a draft filled with different team builds and strategies, RosterWatch’s Shane Seeley was the only drafter to take three consecutive players at the same position, ending up with Elijah Moore, Shi Smith and Sage Surratt to pair with Javonte Williams. That isn’t terrible (in fact, it’s probably what we in the business would classify as ‘good’).

5.01 – Jaelon Darden, WR, North Texas

Analyst: The Podfather (@Fantasy_Mansion) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Love that 99th-percentile College Dominator Rating with speed to burn for days.

5.02 – Stevie Scott, RB, Indiana

Analyst: Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Big boy ran a 4.8 in high school at 240-pounds. Now he’s down to 230, with some decent receiving numbers in college too. If he can run a 4.6, he’ll be shooting up draft boards and I’ll look smart.

5.03 – Dax Milne, WR, BYU

Analyst: Alex Dunlap (@AlexDunlapNFL) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: If you’ve studied the Zach Wilson tape, Milne is impossible to miss; productive enough junior season to leave early for the NFL.

5.04 – Frank Darby, WR, Arizona State

Analyst: Byron Lambert (@BigNFLAction) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Athletic build with some burst and flare. Darby has a shot if he can clean up the hands.

5.05 – Cade Johnson, WR, South Dakota State

Analyst: The Trashman (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Speedy utility knife who runs precise routes.

5.06 –  Mike Strachan, WR, Charleston

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Close your eyes, now imagine a 6-5, 210-pound WR running a 4.35 from a small town in West Virginia. Open your eyes – its not Randy Moss, but its close.

5.07 – Marquez Stevenson, WR, Houston

Analyst: Alan Seslowsky (@AlanSeslowsky) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Deep threat with speed. Had the injury early in college but has been on the field since. The NFL scouts favor speed players and MS is a lottery ticket. Small, 8-1/2-inch hands.

5.08 – Hunter Long, TE, Boston College

Analyst: Shane Seeley (@TheFlexNetwork1) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Was heavily utilized in the BC offense, drawing 91 total college targets. Still a raw talent, but he can get on the field early as a blocking TE, which could create opportunity in the passing game. Got some buzz at the Senior Bowl and we’re playing for upside at this stage of the draft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl78lYoadbU

5.09 – Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss

Analyst: Ray Garvin (@RayGQue) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: This value is ridiculous. Yeboah has real TE3 upside in this class, and grabbing him outside the top-50 is ideal. In more aggressive leagues, he will be gone in the fourth.

5.10 – Pooka Williams, RB, Kansas

Analyst: Ryan Lopes (@StillRyanFive) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Smaller at around 5-10, 170, but the talent is supreme. At this spot, you’re baking in build and/or off-field concerns.

5.11 – Damonte Coxie, WR, Memphis

Analyst: Nate Liss (@AnOutragedJew) (Team Underworld)
Rationale: Opted out of the majority of 2020, had back to back 72-reception, 1,100-plus receiving yard seasons as a sophomore and junior. Plus size (6-3/200lbs) with an explosive play making ability.

5.12 – Trevon Grimes, WR, Florida

Analyst: Sully from Houston (@SullyFromHTown) (Team RosterWatch)
Rationale: Solid player in the SEC, taking touches away from Kadarius Toney.

Round 5 Takeaways

Alan appears to have cornered the market on Stevensons, drafting both Marquez and Rhamondre. Great strategy in PPS (point-per-Stevenson) formats (editors note: forgive me, it’s getting late and I’m tired).

Also, small school WR with upper 90th-percentile marks in College Dominator Rating and College Target Share at 5.01? Sounds like a Matt Kelley special to me.

Check out Jaelen Darden on PlayerProfiler’s New DYNASTY DELUXE Rankings:

The best strategy I can give you? Find a guy to plant a flag on in this range of drafts no matter where he is on any set of rankings you utilize. And if you can’t find a guy, it’s never a bad idea to reference the Dynasty Deluxe Big Board. While I like Trevon Grimes, who was this draft’s Mr. Irrelevant, I now feel better about snagging him at 5.08 in a Superflex/TE Premium format since he could very well be a day two pick. And if you’re going to take a skill position player from a big name school this late in a rookie draft, make sure it’s a player who has a chance to go before day three, otherwise it’s probably best to fade them as history has taught us.

Conclusion

In a turn of events that should surprise exactly nobody, the RosterWatch faithful feel that they slayed this mock, while the Underworld’s robust minion/buzzard population would argue that they were the winners. Who is the winner? Whose job is it to decide?

It reads here in my contract that I am to end this piece by declaring the Underworld the winners, ripping off my shirt and announcing that I can’t wait to help us retain our mock drafting heavyweight championship of the world the next time we all meet in the squared circle that is these fantasy football streets.

But I’m a classy guy, and I will do no such thing. As such, I reserve the right to not be made fun of in the future if I make a pick in one of these things that can be classified as suboptimal.