The successes and failures week 10 had to offer have come and gone. Onward to another week of analysis and breaking down the players who are most poised to succeed in Week 11. We enjoyed tremendous success last week with our Garrett Celek breakout prediction, and have reason for optimism with a thinned wide receiver corps in Houston. With several other under the radar players poised for an upward trend in Week 11, it’s time to take a look at the players with intriguing advanced stats, metrics, and analytics player profiles that the rest of your league mates are ignoring as you continue your push toward the playoffs!
J.D. McKissic, RB, Seahawks
C.J. Prosise is officially out of the way, leaving the Seahawks’ backfield every bit the mess that it was at the start of the season. J.D. McKissic is the satellite back fantasy gamers have been waiting to see pop ever since his Week 4 game against the Colts in which he totaled 65 total yards and two touchdowns on four carries and one reception.
Unfortunately for McKissic owners, his true breakout game has yet to come, but he has a chance to arrive this week against the Falcons. McKissic saw a season high five carries for 26 yards (5.2 YPC) last week against the Cardinals and added an additional four receptions for 20 yards. He now has a chance to inherit third down snaps on a team that averages the fifth most pass attempts per game (40 p/g).
J.D. McKissic Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
As a converted wide receiver from Arkansas State, J.D. McKissic possesses the hands and route running ability to serve as a formidable satellite back in Seattle’s offense. McKissic was highly productive during his time at Arkansas State, posting 103 receptions for 1,022 yards and five touchdowns. He also found success in the ground game on limited opportunities with a 47/379/2 stat line.
The Seahawks get a favorable matchup in Week 11 against the Falcons. Atlanta is allowing the 16th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, surrendering +0.57 points above league average. With an impending increase in snaps coming for a satellite back on a pass-happy offense, McKissic has a chance to turn in a strong week as the Seahawks continue to search out ways to move the ball out of the backfield.
Rod Smith, RB, Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys were a complete disaster in Week 10, falling to the Falcons 27-7 behind a depleted offensive line and a lost identity at the running back position following the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott. Alfred Morris rushed for 53 yards on 11 carries. Rod Smith had three carries for 14 yards, and added another four receptions for 15 yards on six targets.
Continuing with the trend of players who have seen an increase in targets over the past week, it’s Rod Smith who comes up in an ideal spot in Week 11 as the Cowboys face an explosive offense in the Eagles. Dallas could be throwing often just to keep pace. Rod Smith’s six targets in Week 10 are the most any Dallas running back has seen all season. Moreover, they have a chance to rise, as the Eagles rank first in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (66.4) and are allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Rod Smith 2017 Game Log
If you’re looking to capitalize on a running back with a negative game flow this week, look no further than Rod Smith. He saw every backfield target in Week 10, and could be in line for the bulk of the backfield snaps in what could be a pass-heavy game script for Dallas.
Bruce Ellington, WR, Texans
Will Fuller looks to be on the outs in Houston this week, making Bruce Ellington an even better play in Week 11 against the Cardinals than what was initially realized.
Despite being the third receiver in Houston’s receiving corps, Ellington is trending up in a massive way. Over the course of eight games, Bruce Ellington has seen 39 targets on the season, and has logged 16 over the last two weeks (41-percent of his total targets). In addition to Bruce Ellington’s target spike, we can’t overlook the 70 pass attempts Tom Savage has thrown over the last two weeks. Over the last two weeks, Bruce Ellington has totaled seven receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown. He appears set to see a high volume of snaps lined up opposite of Justin Bethel, according to PlayerProfiler’s cornerback matchup system. Bethel is currently ranked 68th among cornerbacks, and is allowing a QB Passer Rating of 101.2 (no. 48).
Bruce Ellington Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
With elite workout metrics across the board, Bruce Ellington possesses a 4.45 40-yard dash time (79th-percentile), a 127.2 Burst Score (81st-percentile) and a 10.64 Agility Score (97th-percentile). Ellington now looks to capitalize on an ideal cornerback matchup in a game which will see no regression in pass attempts.
With DeAndre Hopkins slated to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson (no. 11 cornerback) the majority of the afternoon and Will Fuller out, look for the Texans to funnel targets to Ellington. This will fire him up in all PPR formats.
