The offseason is all about shifting values in dynasty. Now that there has been real football played in 2019 and we have data to work with, we have seen values shift more drastically. We can use this new data to pinpoint players that have an open buying window. This is how we beat the curve on slumping assets or players that will experience a spike in value soon. Always better to be early than a big game too late. Let’s use advanced stats, metrics and analytics to take a look at some players to target in dynasty leagues before their buying windows slam shut.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
We gravitate toward running backs more so than wide receivers in rookie drafts because they’re often quicker to see featured role usage. That has been evidenced once again with Chicago’s new running back, David Montgomery. While Montgomery hasn’t jumped off the page yet, Chicago’s offense has been sputtering for much of the season. Unfortunately for them, that might not change in the next month or so. Their next opponents are NO, LAC, @PHI, DET, and @LAR. While the Bears defense has remained potent, their offensive inefficiencies will ensure that they trail in many of these games. Cap it off with the extremely poor run-blocking efficiency Montgomery has seen and it becomes clear that this rough stretch is prime buy-low time.
#Bears100 Offensive Line is taking a steep drop down my rankings backed mostly by ineffective rush blocking.
They rank 25th in @fboutsiders Adjusted Line Yards and RG Kyle Long not only ranks as one of PFF's worst guards, he ranks as one of the worst offensive players in the NFL— Justin Edwards (@Justin_Redwards) October 10, 2019
Tarik Cohen caps Montgomery’s upside. We know this. However, Montgomery hasn’t been an absolute zero in the passing game. He’s received 13 targets to Cohen’s 31, and they are both on the field at the same time with Cohen sometimes splitting out wide. Thirteen targets might not seem like much, but it’s more than backs such as Mark Ingram (nine), Marlon Mack (nine) and Derrick Henry (eight) have seen.
Montgomery doesn’t have massive receiving upside, but he does have something we love: volume. Volume is the number one most important factor in a running back’s situation. Ask Leonard Fournette, who’s seeing an elite Snap Share even though, like Montgomery, he’s not an elite athlete.
Any chance that Mike Davis would stand in Montgomery’s way is dead, as Davis has seen nine carries all season. Montgomery, who Chicago traded up to draft, has already taken hold of the goal-line work. When the team enjoys more positive game script, which is already boosted by an opportunistic defense, scoring opportunities will come. Buy, buy, buy.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
What has changed since the NFL draft for J.J. Arcega-Whiteside? Nothing. He was never a Year One play. He was a stash on a well-run football team with a stud quarterback and receivers that are all on the way out. Alshon Jeffery is his same old touchdown-or-bust self, averaging a depressing 2.1 YAC per target. Sadly, DeSean Jackson‘s 32-year old body appears to finally be showing signs of decay after a decade of field-scorching play. Nelson Agholor hasn’t brought his game above maddening inconsistency, and who else is there? Mack Hollins?
Check out J.J. Arcega-Whiteside on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
JJAWS looks like a discounted version of the same player the Eagles drafted in April. With a high draft pedigree and plus results in College Dominator Rating and Speed Score, there’s no reason to throw Arcega-Whiteside in the trash. If your leaguemates are souring on a late first round dynasty pick, or yearning for an instant producer instead of a player not quite ready to contribute, he is a premier buy low. Stash him before he shifts into a more featured role on a perennially productive Eagles offense.
Chris Herndon, TE, New York Jets
The Chris Herndon suspension buying window has transformed into a post-suspension buying window fueled by a hamstring pull. Herndon is expected to be out until Week 8, which still leaves a half-season of production on the table for an offense that is about to get their starting QB back and where playmakers are in short supply. Outside of Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson and, to some extent, Jamison Crowder, there is nothing there. The Jets’ Supporting Cast Efficiency, per PlayerProfiler.com, is dead last in the league.
Let’s recap. There is a 23-year old tight end coming off a TE15 rookie campaign, one who recorded 12.9 (No. 9 among qualified tight ends) yards per reception and a 92.9-percent (No. 1) True Catch Rate. This player finds himself on an offense that clearly misses him and is always trailing. With the streaming options this early in 2019 being as rough as ever (Geoff Swaim, Hayden Hurst, Jordan Akins, etc.) this is a buying opportunity.
