In our latest in the Meet the Metric series, we turn our attention to the running game. Whether running backs matter or not is a question for a different article. Let us content ourselves by acknowledging that they are part of the game. In fantasy football, whatever the format, pinning your hopes on young and productive backs can be the key to success. But the days of one-dimensional plodders who “got what is blocked for them” are over. We want dynamic playmakers who can put up big numbers in less than ideal situations. That is where the concept of Yards Created comes in.
What Is It?
This concept was originated by Graham Barfield, formerly from NFL.com and now a leading figure at Fantasy Points, on his Fantasy Game Theory blog. In his Introduction to Yards Created piece, Graham defines Yards Created as all yards generated above and beyond what was blocked. Yards Created are accrued after the running back’s first evaded tackle.
Readers of a particular vintage may remember the days when John Madden used to provide the color commentary on the video game that carries his name. One such commentary snippet, usually employed whenever a big bruising back like Mike Alstott earned a carry, sticks forever in my mind.
“You want three yards, he’ll get you three yards. You want five yards? He’ll get you three yards.”
Players that this would describe are not big in the Yards Created stakes. We are looking for players that, not content with evading that first tackle, break another one their way to a big run. A prime example of this is the poster boy for the metric in 2020, Derrick Henry. Now Henry enjoyed a healthy workload last season, with his 275.5 Weighted Opportunities ranking No. 2 among qualified running backs. Back in the day, a running back seeing 300 opportunities per season would be a fantasy factor based on workload alone. But Henry led the league with 112 Evaded Tackles, with a 28.2-percent (No. 8) Juke Rate. He also ripped off a league-best 21 Breakaway Runs.
Henry does not get what is blocked for him and then return to the huddle. He takes what is blocked for him and then keeps on taking, racking up yards and fantasy points. This is why we love him.
Buy Dobbins and Sanders
To look at the leaders in Yards Created is to look at a list of players that won fantasy leagues for their managers last season. Five of the top six in this metric finished as RB7 or higher.
2020 Yards Created Leaders
Looking ahead to 2021, there are players for whom a larger workload could make them bargains in redraft given their abilities to create their own yards. They figure prominently in the Yards Created per Touch standings. Current signs point to them having more touches in the new season. Notable players like J.K. Dobbins, whose 2.18 (No. 3) Yards Created per Touch trailed only Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Dobbins managed 118.1 (No. 42) Weighted Opportunities as a rookie. With Mark Ingram now out of the picture in Baltimore, Dobbins should see plenty more in his sophomore campaign.
Is JK Dobbins the next bell-cow in the NFL? ?
?Breakaway Run Rate (1st)
⚫️Juke Rate (5th)
?Team Run Plays Per Game (1st)
⚫️Yards Per Touch (3rd) pic.twitter.com/Udc8v6QOP9— RotoUnderworld (@rotounderworld) February 8, 2021
A player with more experience is Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders, who had a mark of 320 (No. 14) Yards Created in only 12 games. But his 26.7 Yards Created per Game jumped him to No. 9 on that front, and to No. 10 with a mark of 1.67 Yards Created per Touch.
https://youtu.be/qEY5w5DnlYg
The Eagles look like they’ll ride with Jalen Hurts at quarterback this year. Hopefully, an injury-free campaign and Sanders benefitting from the Alfred Morris Corollary should see him among the Yards Created leaders in the new year.
Get Away From Drake
Kenyan Drake is a player to be wary of for a variety of reasons, but especially given his poor showing in Yards Created. He eked his way to the RB24 in Fantasy Points per Game last season, thanks largely to his workload. He logged 192.1 (No. 15) Weighted Opportunities, but averaged 0.66 (No. 55) Yards Created per Touch. This is the eighth-lowest of the 51 running backs to earn at least 100.0 Weighted Opportunities. He is unlikely to command quite as big a workload on the Las Vegas Raiders, barring an injury to Josh Jacobs. His inability to create his own yards, therefore, makes him a player that will be on none of my redraft rosters in 2021.
