Regardless of the draft strategy fantasy gamers employ, everyone is looking for the late round break out. In 2018 picking James White in the 11th round paid off big. Getting the RB 10 in PPR points per game was a gift that propelled best-tball owners to a 19 percent win rate. Finding these players in drafts is the key to winning your league. At RB, there are a few criteria we can use to narrow down our list of potential suitors. Based on his advanced stats, metrics and analytics profile, Justice Hill fits the profile of a 2019 fantasy football league winner.
Ambiguous Backfield
Breakout RBs often come from murky backfields. A situation where the perceived Week 1 backup doesn’t need an injury to get involved is ideal. In Baltimore the rushing volume is so great that Mark Ingram can’t possibly handle the 32 rushes per game that are available. Even if Lamar Jackson takes as much as 20 percent of the rushing attempts there will be work for Justice Hill. Ingram is 29.6 yrs old, outside top 20 in Yards Per Carry, Breakaway Run Rate, and Evaded Tackles. Hill’s 4.4 40 Yard Dash (97th percentile) speed will be a stark contrast.
Justice Hill Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Third Down Skill Set
Justice Hill also provides passing down utility that will allow the Ravens to put him on the field. In Hill’s Sophomore season at Oklahoma State he had 31 receptions in a year where he totally dominated the backfield. Hill also carried the ball 268 times for 1467 yards. While Hill’s size may draw comps to 3rd down backs like Nyheim Hines, his ability to dominate a backfield sets Hill apart from many low BMI comps. Hill didn’t just dominate an RB room that was thirsty for talent. He usurped Chris Carson, an NFL starting RB, in his Freshman year.
https://youtu.be/kLT5VUly8w0
Efficient Offense
Breakout RBs also benefit greatly from being a part of an efficient offense. With Lamar Jackson under center last year the team was providing its stable of backs over 35 attempts a game. From week 11 on, Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon, and Ty Montgomery were able to average over 5 Yards Per Carry. The split of the load is a concern. However, the Ravens have since parted ways with Montgomery and Allen. Justice Hill provides more pass catching ability than Gus Edwards as evidenced by his 8.7 percent 64th percentile College Target Share. He’s also a better runner than newly acquired Tyler Ervin which is shown by Hill’s 5.7 College Yards Per Carry (57th percentile) as well as his 105.7 Speed Score (82nd percentile).
Role
In the last two years Mark Ingram has been effective in his role. But, Ingram is not a backfield dominator at this point in his career. In Ingram’s last two years his Opportunity Share has been 41.4 percent, 43rd overall, and 52.4 percent, 23rd overall. He was sharing touches with Alvin Kamara. But even before Kamara, Tim Hightower had 40 percent of the carries (29.8% Opportunity Share). Before that it was Khiry Robinson and C.J. Spiller taking touches. On a team that runs 500 rushing plays the other half of the pie, even after Lamar Jackson takes 20 percent, is around 150 carries. Justice Hill will be seen often and early.
Greg Roman
It is oddly consistent with Greg Roman’s past that he would now be coaching the Lamar Jackson Ravens. In Roman’s past he has coached both Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor. In past Roman offenses a few trends stand out. Firstly, there are always a healthy volume of rushing plays. His career average of 494 rush attempts would’ve been 3rd in the NFL last season. That marries well with a team that was already leading the league in rush attempts.
Check out Justice Hill on PlayerProfiler’s “World Famous” Draft Kit:
Secondly, there has always been a second back who gets touches. It would be completely reasonable to project Hill for Mike Gillislee’s 2016 season of 100 carries. Hill has demonstrated more receiving chops than Gillislee. In 2016 LeSean McCoy handled 230 carries and 50 catches. If 2018 Mark Ingram, who is very nearly 30, pulls that off it would mark a career high.
Conclusion
Justice Hill is available at the 185th pick in FFPC drafts. Mark Ingram is not likely to get a lot of preseason work. When his speed and athleticism are put on display that discount will evaporate. Hill’s success is not dependent on an Ingram injury. If it just turns out that Ingram is at a place in his career where he’s most effective with 40-50 percent of the work Hill will be relevant. Hill will need to be involved in the passing game to really pay off. The Ravens need pass-catchers, especially with Marquise Brown’s foot still recovering. Hill will be present in the preseason and will be an easy target for Jackson to develop a rapport with. Don’t be late to the Justice Hill party.
