STUD: Ken Walker
Editor’s Note – This article was written before the NFL Draft and does not account for the trade of D’Andre Swift.
Entering the 2022 NFL Draft, Ken Walker was arguably the best RB prospect. He finished his junior season at Michigan State with 1,636 yards rushing and 19 touchdowns. His dominant season was good enough for a 50.2-percent College Dominator rating (99-percentile).
While it took a few games before he would become the lead back in Seattle, he made an immediate impact. He led all rookies with 1,050 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Entering his second season, I have Walker as a stud with incredible upside.
When Did You Know He Was One of Your Guys?
From a fantasy perspective, there were concerns about Ken Walker’s situation. He started the season off as the backup behind Rashaad Penny and an offensive line that featured two rookie tackles. However, when head coach Pete Carroll praised Walker for how well-rounded a player he was before the season, fantasy managers everywhere should’ve been listening. He finished as RB18 overall despite running behind a mediocre 42.9 Run Blocking Rating (No. 58).
Why Did You Like Him So Much?
After watching his dominant junior season, it was difficult not to be excited for Ken Walker moving forward. His 144.7 Speed Score (96-percentile) was on full display during his rookie season, finishing with 17 Breakaway Runs (No. 3) and a Breakaway Run Rate of 7.5-percent (No. 8). Defenders had a tough time taking him down. He finished with 79 evaded tackles (No. 10) and a Juke Rate of 31-percent (No. 12). However, Walker is prone to negative plays. Walker finished with 54 stuffed runs (No. 4) and an Expected Points Added (EPA) of -28.3 (No. 148). If Seattle’s offensive line improves in 2023, these numbers should improve.
Ken Walker 2022 Efficiency Metrics
Another reason I have confidence in Walker moving forward is the opportunities he saw during his rookie season. Despite starting only 11 games, Walker finished with 228 carries (No. 11) and an Opportunity Share of 65.3% (No. 13). He saw plenty of red zone opportunities, finishing with 52 (No. 3) during his rookie campaign.
What did you learn
Rookie RBs are worth taking a chance on later in the draft in redraft leagues. Despite his ADP ranking of RB37 in ADP per Fantasy Pros, Ken Walker finished as RB18 overall. There are usually examples of rookie backs that exceed expectations in their rookie season.
Notable examples from last year include Tyler Allgeier (RB46 in ADP) and Breece Hall (RB20 in ADP). Allgeier finished as RB29 despite his low ADP, and Hall was on pace to be a top 10 fantasy RB (16.4 points per game) before his season ending injury in Week 7.
Where Would You Be Comfortable Drafting Him in 2021
Theo Gremminger mentioned how the average experience for the RB1 overall since 2013 is 2.75 years. With Ken Walker entering his second season, he should be in a prime position to make that leap this season or next. His current ADP per Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) is 14.9 (RB6).
He is currently ranked No. 22 (RB11) by PlayerProfiler in their PPR rankings. Honestly, I would be comfortable taking Walker in the mid to late top 10 because of his upside. If you can get him in the teens, that would be great value at that spot.
DUD: D’Andre Swift
Editor’s Note – This article was written before the NFL Draft and does not account for the trade of D’Andre Swift.
Through his first two seasons in the league, D’Andre Swift displayed flashes of his upside as a top fantasy back. He averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game (No. 15) and 16.1 points per game (No. 8), leading to high expectations for the 2022 season. However, it was another year defined by injuries for Swift. With his injury history and questions about his role moving forward, I have Swift as a dud for 2022.
When Did You Know He Was One of Your Guys?
D’Andre Swift’s profile suggested a breakout season was on the horizon for 2022. In the 2021 season, he had 53 more touches than his rookie season. He was active in the passing game as well, finishing with a 66-percent Route Participation rate (No. 2), and an 18.4-percent target share (No. 2). The hope for fantasy managers was that Swift would avoid the injury bug for the first time in his career. Swift ended this hope early as he missed three games due to an injury. His role was limited afterward, finishing with a career-low 99 carries (No. 43) and a 36.9-percent Opportunity Share (No. 51).
D’Andre Swift 2022 Opportunity Metrics
Why Did You Like Him So Much?
Despite his injury concerns, D’Andre Swift has been a dynamic playmaker for the Lions. In 2022, he finished with a Breakaway Run Rate of 8.1-percent (No. 5) and a 28.6-percent Juke Rate (No. 16). Despite a decline in touches, Swift made the most of his opportunities. Swift had 6.3 yards per touch (6.3) and 4.9 True Yards Per Carry. He was efficient as a runner, finishing with 4.58 yards created per touch (No. 2) and an EPA of +10.7 (No. 7). His offensive line does their part as well, finishing with a 75.9 Run Blocking Rating (No. 12) on his carries.
D’Andre Swift 2022 Efficiency Metrics
While he struggled through injuries again in 2022, he still managed to be productive. He finished with 931 total yards in 14 games (66.5 yards per game) and had eight total touchdowns (No. 16). Despite his reduced role, he scored a respectable 13.7 fantasy points per game (No. 15).
What did you learn
There are risks to consider when taking on an injury-prone RB in fantasy. D’Andre Swift is far from the only example of a talented RB that struggled through injuries early in his career. Another that comes to mind is Christian McCaffery. McCaffery missed 23 games in the next two seasons after finishing as RB1 overall in 2019. Once he was healthy in 2022, he finished as RB2 overall. While Swift is not as talented as McCaffery, he has a decent upside if he finds a way to stay healthy.
Where Would You Be Comfortable Drafting Him in 2021
While I love D’Andre Swift as a player, I have him as a dud for a reason. He has a limited upside because of his injury history and questions about his role. This off-season, the Lions signed RB David Montgomery to a three year deal. Montgomery will take over Jamaal Williams’ role as the short-yardage back for the Lions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHuJMmM2gRA
While Swift should be the third down back, he could lose snaps if he struggles with injuries and drops (No. 2) again. Swift is ranked No. 38 (RB18) overall by FantasyPros, and No. 63 in ADP. A safe spot to draft Swift is somewhere in the middle of these two spots. While there are concerns with his situation, his talent is worth taking a chance on.
