Clyde Edwards-Helaire to Kansas City, D’Andre Swift to Detroit, Jonathan Taylor behind the Colts O-line, Cam Akers the heir to Todd Gurley, J.K. Dobbins paired with Lamar Jackson. The rookie running back takeover hit in a big way during the first two nights of the 2020 NFL Draft. While the above are undoubtedly the top five backs off the board in rookie drafts, we have to be excited about Ke’Shawn Vaughn. A player who has all the key metrics required to thrive in the right landing spot. When Tampa Bay called his name on Day Two, that need came to fruition. Still, there is already a lot of noise about how Ronald Jones was a draft winner and not nearly enough hype behind Vaughn yet. He is a screaming value and a potential league winner this year. Keep these points in mind before you doubt it.
Competition
There is a clear path in Ke’Shawn Vaughn‘s sights to become Tampa Bay’s starter. Ronald Jones was drafted in the early second round in 2018 over notable names such as Kerryon Johnson and Derrius Guice. Yet, the high draft capital was not enough for him to beat out undrafted free agent Peyton Barber. Somewhere between the draft and the start of his rookie season, he fell out of favor of the coaching staff. In his rookie year, he commanded 30 total touches and posted a disappointing 1.9 True Yards Per Carry. Although he made vast improvements over the low bar his debut set, time is precious for the NFL running back. Current coach Bruce Arians feels no ties to the sunk cost that the previous tenure spent on him. Clearly, this regime is not set with the incumbent backs after taking two more in this year’s draft.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile w/ College Stats
Vaughn’s 30.7 (62nd-percentile among qualified running backs) BMI gives him the closest fit to a workhorse back build on this roster. None of the other backs hold an upper percentile BMI necessary to withstand 200-plus carries. The next closest in regards to build is Dare Ogunbowale, who posted an 11.9-percent (85th-percentile) College Target Share at Wisconsin. If Arians has really soured on Jones, expect to see more Ogunbowale in for pass protection and passing down situations. The new guy under center had recent a history of targeting another former back from Madison in James White, but Ogunbowale saw only 11 carries last season. His 91.1 (29th-percentile) Speed Score prevents him from being a featured back.
Opportunity
A featured back seems to be exactly what this coaching staff is looking for. Bruce Arians has made it a point in press conferences that he wants a “do it all” player in his backfield.
Other than Dare Ogunbowale, Ke’Shawn Vaughn has the best College Target Share on this roster with a 74th-percentile output in his senior season. If Arians wants a back that doesn’t need to come off the field, then it sounds like he found one in the draft. Ronald Jones may have been the lead back last season, but his 46.9-percent (No. 32) Opportunity Share was just 7.7-percent higher than Peyton Barber‘s. That does not sound like Marshall Faulk-type usage. Arians even outright benched Jones back in Week 8 of last season for a missed blitz pickup. It’s hard to imagine Jones regaining that trust now with a 43-year old Tom Brady in the pocket.
Versatility
The pass happy Bruce Arians already seems excited by his new third round acquisition. Following his first season in South Florida, he voiced his desire to find a pass catching back that doesn’t need to leave the field. He’s gone on record saying that Ke’Shawn Vaughn is a guy that can play every down. Normally coachspeak needs to be discounted, but this sounds eerily similar to the 2018 quote about Chris Godwin right before his breakout season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvj5wL1twXs
It is the versatility Vaughn offers that makes him such an intriguing fit for what Arians wants. The defense knows that Ronald Jones is not a threat in the pass game. They know to expect a pass if Dare Ogunbowale is in. Not the case for when Vaughn lines up. He proved he can keep the defense honest by post 28 receptions his senior year while breaking 1,100 total yards and scoring double digit touchdowns. Because of his all-purpose skill set, his Best Comparable Player is Dalvin Cook.
Landing Spot
In a deep running back class, Tampa waited to get their guy after first addressing glaring needs on the offensive line and in the secondary. They could have grabbed either J.K. Dobbins or Cam Akers in the second round. Instead, they wisely chose to go get help for their league bottom pass defense. Teams are getting smarter about the value of a running back in today’s game. The ability to shore up the front line with an all-world tackle for pocket anchor Tom Brady cannot be discounted.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn has ideal size, and speed. He showcased the ability to carry a bad offense in the highly competitive SEC, and now finds himself on one of the most amicable offenses for fantasy. While last season’s passing volume was unsustainable, Brady’s addition will keep this team scoring points. Vaughn’s propensity to command targets out of the backfield and Brady’s preference to target backs is an exciting pairing.
Check out Ke’Shawn Vaughn on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Rookie Rankings:
Over the reign of the Patriots dynasty, their running attack has always been a valuable fantasy asset. The problem has been the headache of uncertainty, with Belichick’s propensity to rotate in different backs. Or just to frustrate us, evidenced by Brady’s league-high seven goal line carries last season. Over two seasons, Vaughn tallied up 24 touchdowns for a Vanderbilt offense that ranked No. 123 in offensive yards. If Bruce Arians plans to stick with one guy, then the Buccaneers rushing leader will see plenty of goal line opportunities. It’s not crazy to consider the possibility of Vaughn leading the league in goal line carries next year.
Conclusion
Grabbing Ke’Shawn Vaughn at his current ADP is absolute thievery. Ronald Jones can only artificially suppress his value for so long. Expect the hype train to start picking up steam and his draft position to then rise exponentially. A dream landing spot in a high octane offense that’s looking for an all-purpose back is almost too good to be true. If Bruce Arians is true to his word about Vaughn being an every down guy, then the ceiling is already scary high. There is league winning potential for as soon as this year. Do not miss out.
