It’s time for my DFS Week 10 picks! Thanks for following along each week. Last week was a great one! The majority of picks (with the exception of Zay Flowers and Brandin Cooks) were spot on. Did you play Cade Otton? I really hope you did! Mark Andrews and Otton were the only tight ends worth much last week, and that’s the information you got right here from me! So let’s look at the data, make some new predictions, and create a few random props.
DFS Week 10 Picks
QB Picks
Jared Goff ($6.4K DraftKings / $8.0K FanDuel)
The Lions and Jared Goff are coming off of a bye week to face the Chargers, whose defense is one of the worst in the league. This could be a monster game for Goff. In five of eight games this season, he’s thrown for more than 250 yards, with two of eight games well over 300 yards. This could be his fourth game in a row with more than 250 yards. That would make a good prop bet! The salary for Goff is very manageable and he’s projected for 18 FPPG on both platforms.
Geno Smith ($5.8K DraftKings / $6.5K FanDuel)
After being completely destroyed by the Ravens last week, Geno Smith and the Seahawks will no doubt be playing their best to recover some dignity. Smith is projected for 17 FPPG on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s up against another terrible defense – the Washington Commanders. His salary is also extremely manageable and considering the upside, I would expect it to be higher.
Kyler Murray ($5.9K DraftKings / $7.5K FanDuel)
He’s finally back! How could I not include Kyler Murray as one of my DFS week 10 picks? Here’s the thing…it could be amazing or it could be a disaster. What we do know is this – the Atlanta defense appears to be pretty decent, but they’ve also not faced very many good teams.
The Cardinals are not a very good team, so the defense will likely look competent again this week. It’s Kyler Murray, however, so we’re seeing projections upwards of 17 FPPG. There’s more good news: James Conner might be back with him and sort-of breakout receiver, Michael Wilson.
RB Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7.0K DraftKings / $8.2K FanDuel)
It’s going to be a tough week for stud RBs this week. The usual favs like Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, and Travis EtienneĀ face defenses that give up the fewest points to running backs in the league. Accordingly, I’m going to opt for Jahmyr Gibbs. Coming off of a restful bye week, Gibbs is an excellent option projected for 13 FPPG on DraftKings and 11 on FanDuel. He’s aiming for his third game in a row with 125 or more scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown. He has had over 50 scrimmage yards in each of his first 6 career games. This would make for a great prop bet.
Joe Mixon ($6.2K DraftKings / $7.7K FanDuel)
Joe Mixon is coming off of an explosive Week 9 performance. We should expect no less this week as he faces a Houston defense that allows some of the most points to running backs. Mixon has had 60 or more scrimmage yards in eight games this season, which happens to be the most among all running backs. This would be his third game in a row with a rushing touchdown. I think I’ll put in a prop bet for a Mixon anytime touchdown.
Joe Mixon Snaps by Game:
Week 2: 79%
Week 3: 77%
Week 4: 78%
Week 5: 76%
Week 6: 70%ELITE Buy Low Candidate š
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) October 26, 2023
WR Picks
DK Metcalf ($6.8K DraftKings / $7.3K FanDuel)
DK Metcalf stacked up with Geno Smith could be interesting this week. The Commanders defense ranks No. 30 against wide receivers. Metcalf is projected for 14 FPPG on DraftKings and 12 on FanDuel. Even though the Seahawks lost big to the Ravens, Metcalf still got in plenty of targets.
This could be his third game in a row with five or more receptions. I like that for a prop bet. How about you? You could save a little bit of cap space and play Tyler Lockett ($6.1K / $6.8K ), who has similar FPPG projections.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6.0K DraftKings / $7.1K FanDuel)
It’s obvious that DeAndre Hopkins has gotten his groove back in Tennessee, despite a less-than-consistent quarterback situation. He’s looking at his third game in a row with 60 or more receiving yards. Hopkins is projected to bring in the same amount of FPPG this week as Metcalf, and he’s facing an equally bad defense against receivers. If you play Hopkins, you’ll save yourself some cap space.
Michael Thomas ($4.5K DraftKings / $5.8K FanDuel)
If you’ve got Chris Olave taste on a Michael Thomas budget…I’ve got you. Thomas is projected to bring in 10.6 fantasy points on DraftKings and 8.5 on FanDuel. That’s nothing to sneeze at. Depending on your source, the Minnesota defense is ranked No. 22 against wide receivers. There’s a bit of history here too. This could be his fifth game in a row against the Vikings in which he’s had five or more receptions.
TE Picks
Sam LaPorta ($5.7K DraftKings / $6.5K FanDuel)
I feel like I’ve said this many times over the last 10 weeks…Sam LaPorta feels undervalued. The upside is insane with him, especially facing a Chargers defense ranked No. 25 against tight ends. LaPorta is projected for 12 FPPG on DraftKings and 9.75 on FanDuel. I personally would expect to see more.
Juwan Johnson ($3.1K DraftKings / $4.9K FanDuel)
Can lightning strike two weeks in a row with low-tier tight ends? While Juwan Johnson was no Cade Otton last week, he was a very viable option, bringing in 8.9 FPPG which included a touchdown against the Bears. This week, he should be on our radars again, as the Vikings defense ranks No. 21 in allowing points from tight ends. He’s projected for five and six points, respectively, but if he gets the same amount of action as he did last week, we should see more.
DEF/DST
New Orleans Saints ($3.9K DraftKings / $4.2K FanDuel)
For my defense this week, I like the New Orleans Saints, projected for 8 FPPG on both DraftKings and FanDuel. This is a little bit more than I like to pay for my defense, but it’s really the best matchup for the value. If you have enough cap, you absolutely should feel entitled to pay up for the Dallas Cowboys ($4.4K / $5.2K). They’re up against the abysmal New York Giants.
