Ten weeks into the NFL season, DFS grinders now have a significant data sample to examine ahead of each week. Looking to Week 11, advanced stats and metrics point to a few distinct edges we can exploit in this slate of games. Here are a few value plays and GPP targets for the DraftKings’ Week 11 Main Slate.
Lamar Jackson ($7,700) – Baltimore Ravens
Now priced as DraftKings’ most expensive quarterback, Lamar Jackson brings a ceiling unlike any other quarterback in the NFL. Looking at rushing numbers alone, he ranks 11th in the NFL with 702 rushing yards. Averaging 14 rush attempts per game in his last four contests, this usage on the ground gives him a massive floor/ceiling combo for DFS. Jackson has also improved as a passer this season, averaging 7.7 (No. 9 among qualified quarterbacks) Adjusted Yards per Attempt. Even with an elevated price tag, he remains a strong GPP target with ownership likely to gravitate towards Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7GWvz16Njs&t=23s
Looking at matchup, Baltimore draws the Houston Texans in a game totaled at 51.5-points. The Ravens are only four-point favorites in this contest, suggesting a back-and-forth affair. Houston ranks 29th in passing yards allowed per game (277.3), creating additional avenues for Jackson’s success. With matchup and volume on his side, Jackson remains a solid target in GPPs this weekend.
Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000) – Dallas Cowboys
While Christian McCaffrey figures to draw significant ownership, for good reason, Ezekiel Elliott comes in at a fraction of the price. The focal point of the Cowboys offense, Elliott averages 19.8 carries and 3.8 targets per game. While these numbers leave room for growth, he has a 78.8-percent (No. 7) Opportunity Share and a league-leading 44 red zone touches.
Check out Ezekiel Elliott on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
This week, Elliott and the Cowboys face a Detroit Lions defense ranked 27th in rushing yards allowed per game (129.7). With Matthew Stafford missing his second-consecutive week, the Cowboys will enter the game as heavy favorites, boding well for Zeke’s volume on the ground. Ultimately, Dallas wants to pound the rock, and a matchup against Detroit creates the perfect recipe for that particular game script.
Brian Hill ($4,800) – Atlanta Falcons
With Devonta Freeman suffering a multi-week foot sprain, Brian Hill stepped up as Atlanta’s feature back. Hill played 50.7-percent of the Falcons’ snaps and recorded 20 carries last week. He also received a pair of targets and scored a receiving touchdown, showing his ability to work in all phases. Coming out of Wyoming, he recorded a 7.8-percent (55th-percentile) College Target Share, demonstrating his pass catching prowess.
Brian Hill Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
While the Falcons remain 4.5-point road underdogs in Week 11, Hill draws a fantastic matchup against Carolina’s poor run defense. So far this season, the Panthers allow 136.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL. Projected to handle a full workload here, Hill remains a sharp value play on the Week 11 slate.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) – Houston Texans
A slightly contrarian play, DeAndre Hopkins offers massive salary saving off of Michael Thomas ($9,900) at the top of the wide receiver position. Despite the price difference, Hopkins continues to handle a massive workload in Houston’s offense. He hasn’t seen fewer than 11 targets in any of his last four games, while averaging 45-percent of Houston’s Air Yards. On par with Thomas, Hopkins’ volume remains impossible to fade.
Unfortunately for Hopkins, the Texans face a stout Baltimore secondary in Week 11. While the Ravens look tough on paper, they actually rank 20th in pass yards allowed per game (252.9). In a game projected for 51.5 total points, Hopkins is a solid contrarian option and potential game stacking partner with Jackson on the other side.
D.J. Moore ($5,900) – Carolina Panthers
D.J. Moore owns 32-percent of Carolina’s Air Yards and 27-percent of their targets. Taking on an increased role of late, Moore has at least nine targets in each of his last three games. He performs well from an efficiency perspective, owning a +17.5-percent (No. 23) Target Premium and a 73.3-percent (No. 2) Contested Catch Rate. Providing a reliable target for Kyle Allen, Moore simply remains underpriced here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiV71U-RoPw
Looking to Week 11, Moore faces a fantastic matchup against Atlanta’s secondary. Since Keanu Neal‘s season-ending injury, the Falcons have been decimated by opposing passing attacks. In particular, Moore projects to face off against Isaiah Oliver. So far this season, Oliver has allowed 626 receiving yards and three scores in his coverage. With a winnable matchup in a game totaled at 49.5-points, Moore remains a strong value play.
Deebo Samuel ($4,000) – San Francisco 49ers
Another strong value option on this slate, Deebo Samuel benefits from the potential absences of Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle. Thrust into a full-time role last week, Samuel played 84-percent of San Francisco’s snaps, while receiving 11 targets and 95 Air Yards. He has performed well on limited opportunities this season and continues to stand out from an efficiency perspective. His 2.21 Target Separation mark ranks fifth among qualified wide receivers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUhIZmQSUQo
Samuel also draws a strong matchup against Arizona. The Cardinals currently rank 31st in passing yards allowed per game 286.5. In particular, Patrick Peterson has struggled since his return from suspension, allowing a 116.2 (No. 56) Passer Rating Allowed in his coverage. Samuel provides the salary relief necessary to jam multiple studs into lineups on this slate.
Jared Cook ($4,400) – New Orleans Saints
Jared Cook stepped up to play 75.4-percent of the Saints’ snaps in his return from injury, seeing 10 targets and 89 Air Yards. He also ran 34 routes from the slot, creating potential mismatches for the New Orleans offense.
Facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cook draws one of the top tight end matchups in the NFL. Tampa Bay allows the second-most yards to tight ends (695), behind only the Arizona Cardinals. With the Bucs dealing with a multitude of problems in the secondary, Cook provides a sneaky way to access this New Orleans offense in Week 11.
