The Los Angeles Chargers Football team is filled with players who are wildly undervalued for 2024 best ball and fantasy football. I’ll break down my reasoning using ADP, the Chargers’ schedule and win total, their offensive environment, and their defense.
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Chargers ADPs
The Chargers only have one player going within the first 115 picks on Underdog Fantasy. That is rookie WR Ladd McConkey at an ADP of 71. For context, the Patriots also have one player (Rhamondre Stevenson, ADP 77) going in the first 115 picks.
Two other lackluster offenses, the Broncos and Panthers, each have two players going within the first 115 picks. These players are Courtland Sutton (102) and Javonte Williams (105) from Denver. From Carolina Diontae Johnson (82) and Jonathon Brooks (91) fall inside the top 115.
Chargers Schedule and Win Total
The win total betting markets can help us understand why those three teams were contrasted with the Chargers above. The Patriots’ and Panthers’ win totals are set at just 4.5 in the betting markets. These numbers are the lowest among all NFL teams. The next-lowest win total is 5.5. This win total number is held by the Broncos.
Meanwhile, the Chargers’ win total is 8.5, juiced to the over. So, the most likely outcome for the Chargers is a 9-8 season. The Chargers’ team expectations are far better than those of the Patriots, Broncos, and Panthers. However, the player ADPs clearly didn’t reflect this.
The other three teams with 8.5 win totals juiced to the over are the Bears (five players going in the first 100 picks), Browns (three players in the first 110 picks), and Rams (three players in the first 35 picks).
The Chargers also have arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL. Therefore, they shouldn’t have trouble putting up points on their opponents. In 2024, they will face the Broncos and Raiders twice, along with the Panthers, Saints, Cardinals, Titans, Bengals, Buccaneers, Falcons, and Patriots. That’s a huge slew of average to below average units. There many winnable games mixed in.
Clearly, there is a misalignment between Chargers expectations in the betting markets and the players’ ADPs on Underdog Fantasy.
Chargers Offense
Justin Herbert, one of the NFL’s 5-10 best quarterbacks, has paced for at least 4,100 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns in all four NFL seasons. While the team lost Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler this offseason, only Allen looks to be a major loss.
Mike Williams signed a 1-year $10 million deal with the Jets after being cut. Austin Ekeler signed a 2-year $8.4 million deal with the Commanders. Only half of that contract is guaranteed. So, if we’re following the money, Allen is the only notable loss.
In the draft, the Chargers selected OT Joe Alt at pick No. 5. Paired with Rashawn 25-year-old Pro Bowler Rashawn Slater, the Chargers have arguably the best young tackle duo in the NFL. The team then traded up to select WR Ladd McConkey at pick No. 34. McConkey is a player who profiles similarly to Keenan Allen. Georgia rotated their receivers during McConkey’s tenure. Therefore, his season totals are slightly underwhelming. However, on a per route basis, McConkey was elite at getting open and generating yards after the catch.
Other Wide Receivers
Behind McConkey is serviceable veteran Josh Palmer. Palmer has reached double digit half-PPR fantasy points in six of 11 games that he’s played without Keenan Allen. Last year’s first round pick, Quentin Johnston, had an utterly disappointing rookie season. However, there’s some optimism he can put up respectable numbers with more slot usage. He was forced into the Mike Williams role out of necessity once the veteran tore his ACL.
The run game has new offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s fingerprints all over it. He was the Ravens OC from 2019-2022, and Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins were his running backs there for most of this tenure. Edwards is 29 and is coming off his best overall season with more than 800 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Dobbins is the true question mark, rehabbing an Achilles tear from last season.
While some scoffed at new head coach Jim Harbaugh when he brought Roman on as OC, there is serious potential here. In Roman’s first season at the helm in Baltimore, Lamar Jackson won MVP, and the Ravens scored on 51.8-percent of their offensive drives. That Ravens team also put up more than 33 points per game, higher than all but one Patrick Mahomes season. Herbert is a different quarterback than Jackson. He has significantly better arm talent but a fraction of his mobility. Still, Herbert is one of the NFL’s most gifted talents at quarterback and should give Roman plenty to work with.
It’s tough to see the Chargers scoring at a below average rate in 2024 with a veteran coaching staff, top-flight offensive line, Pro Bowl quarterback in his prime, and an interesting – though underwhelming – collection of skill players.
Chargers Defense
The Chargers defensive woes should only make us more optimistic about the pass volume surrounding this offense. Last year’s unit gave up the No. 9-most points, and only the Commanders allowed more passing yards per game than the Chargers’ 269 per game.
While the Chargers addressed offense with their first two selections on draft day, the only Day 2 defensive player added was LB Junior Colson, who does little to improve the pass defense.
There’s a real possibility this team once again ranks near the bottom of the NFL in points allowed and pass defense. This should force the offense into catch-up mode at times.
Wrapping It All Up
The Chargers’ ADPs on Underdog Fantasy simply don’t make sense when factoring in the betting markets, the team’s offense, and the team’s defense. Justin Herbert, paired with an elite offensive line and the best coaching staff of his career, should keep this team respectable all season, delivering the requisite spike weeks to justify drafting the Chargers at ADP.
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