Will Malik Nabers fantasy hype match the on-field production? Or will Deebo Samuel be a better pick at his current fantasy football ADP?
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Malik Nabers – Jeremiah Retzlaff
Giants’ fans haven’t been this excited for a rookie wide receiver since Odell Beckham Jr.’s 2014 debut season. The buzz is palpable for wide receiver Malik Nabers. Drafted No. 6 overall by the Giants, Nabers is coming off a senior season where he had 89 receptions, 1,569 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns on a 31.9-percent target share. Nabers did this in 13 games!
The highest receiving yardage total Deebo Samuel has had to date was 1,405 receiving yards in 2021 on a career high target share 27.8-percent. Malik Nabers will easily clear Samuels’ career high target share in Year 1. Nabers is projected for 140 targets in our World Famous Draft Kit. Expect Nabers to push 150 targets this season.
Talent
From a talent standpoint, Malik Nabers is the only alpha show in town and has a free runway for liftoff in New York. Currently, Nabers is dusting every Giants cornerback in sight with his 4.4 40-yard dash wheels. Nabers targets will be like Green Eggs and Ham by Dr. Seuss. He’ll eat them in the rain, in the dark, on a train, in a car.
This time next year, Nabers’s 2024 ADP will be considered cheap. Fortunately, drafters are having to decide between Deebo Samuel and Malik Nabers whereas the real question to the test next year will be who to select between Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. Take advantage of the discount and draft Nabers.
Deebo Samuel – Dan Williamson
Deebo Samuel and Malik Nabers are currently both going off draft boards in the WR2 range, but the recent trend has Nabers rising as training camp grinds on. Meanwhile, Samuel’s ADP has stayed quite stable. There’s no doubt that it’s fun to watch the Nabers highlight videos as the Giants look to pump up their only star player, and there’s no doubt that Nabers is talented enough to make opposing DBs look silly. But since we already know Nabers has talent and are drafting him as such, it makes no sense to push his stock up even higher because training camp videos are showing what we already have baked into his price.
What’s not baked into his price is the offense around him. Here’s some fun numbers to think about: 12, 15, 17, 15. That’s the number of TD passes by all Giants QBs combined for each of the past four years. Gross! And here’s some more depressing numbers: 3,026, 3,196, 3,157, 2,886. You guessed it. Those are the Giants passing yardage totals for the past four years. Daniel Jones was the Giants QB for all of those years (minus injuries), and he’s still the QB this year.
That’s some serious headwinds on Nabers’s fantasy output! We don’t need to look any further than Garrett Wilson to find a player with similar talent to Nabers who dealt with terrible QB play, as Nabers undoubtedly will this year. Wilson finished as only the WR25 despite playing in 17 games and racking up 175 targets, which netted only 12.7 PPR points per game. It’s sad to say, but similar stats are all too likely for Nabers.
Elite Offense
Samuel, on the other hand, plays a lesser role, but in a fully functional elite offense with MVP-candidate Brock Purdy at the helm. Purdy was a revelation for the 49ers’ offense in his first full year as starting QB, and one of his best traits is hitting his receivers in stride with room to run. As luck would have it, that’s exactly where Deebo excels.
Last year, even with Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all playing 16 games, Samuel averaged 16.2 PPR points per game. That was good for No. 11 best among WRs who played at least 11 games last year. It’s even more impressive when we consider he exited a game with a fractured shoulder after only three touches. Samuel missed only two more games plus the bye week to heal before returning to play! That’s production that would be tough for Nabers to match in 2024 given his offensive environment.
Samuel, though, has additional upside. As a dual threat, he averaged 40 rushes, 229 yards, and 4 TDs on the ground over the past two years with a healthy Christian McCaffrey doing the heavy lifting. Were McCaffrey to get hurt, those numbers would surely rise. George Kittle remarkably also stayed healthy in 2023, a rare feat for him. A Kittle injury would certainly open up more targets for Deebo as would a potential Brandon Aiyuk trade. It’s no secret Aiyuk is unhappy playing out his 5th year option and is currently holding out for a trade or a monster contract offer the 49ers seem quite unwilling to grant. It’s no sure bet that Aiyuk will be playing in a 49ers uniform this year. So, there are multiple paths for Deebo to get even more work in 2024.
Conclusion
There’s no doubt about who is the better dynasty asset. However, for redraft leagues, do yourself a favor and get on board with the player that has demonstrated he’s one of the most electric players in the NFL and plays in an elite offense to boot!
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