Week 1 of Scorching Hot DFS Takes featured a pair of half-hits with McCaffrey erupting while odd Gurley turned to dust plus Chris Carson finding the end zone twice but Rashaad Penny doing so little. It’s a start but we want full hits or bust in this column so let’s see what scorchers the advanced data and analytics can dig up this week.
Jared Goff Supports Two Top-12 Wideouts
The Rams offense averaged 30.8 points per game last season and looked to be in midseason form by Week 1 when they hung 30 on the panthers. This week, they host the Saints who boasted the number-three offense scoring 30.4 points per game. The total for this game sits at 52 points right now.
Unsurprisingly, last week Goff was top-10 in red zone attempts with five passes inside the 20. Goff also has less of Todd Gurley to compete with for the foreseeable future. McVay kept the generational talent’s workload to a pedestrian 14 carries in Week 1.
https://youtu.be/ifJHBO3vh7I
The biggest question is which receivers will be the ones scoring points. The best bet to make is one based on volume and that falls squarely on Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.
Woods led the team with 13 targets and 98 air yards. Kupp followed closely behind in targets with 10 but at a much more shallow, 5 average depth of target. Kupp makes up for this with his immense share of the red zone work in LA. In 2018 Kupp was thrown to 12 times in the red zone while playing in eight games.
Woods is the best bet because of his volume and Kupp is a close second. Cooks’ 4.33 wheels make him a viable tournament play as well but Kupp-Woods is the best stack in LA.
Tyler Boyd Doubles John Ross’ Up
After two seasons of being a laughably inefficient receiver, John Ross had his first performance of at least 60 yards in the NFL. He crushed that mark to the tune of a 7-158-2 stat line. Although Ross looked like an elite receiver, he has a backlog of evidence to suggest that he’s the exact opposite.
Ross averaged 3.6 yards per target on 58 targets last year. That mark ranked 111th in the league.
Tyler Boyd, on the other hand, has proven to be a phenomenal player on numerous occasions. In 2018, on 108 targets, Boyd averaged 9.5 yards per target, 22nd in the NFL.
Tyler Boyd Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Ross hit his 99th-percentile outcome in Week 1 while Boyd converted eight of his 11 targets but only managed 60 yards. Ross’ high target depth makes him a great tournament play any week but his floor is still basement-level.
Boyd figures to have a significantly higher catch-rate raising his weekly floor to numbers Ross could only dream of. If the Bengals play 100 games, the probability that Boyd doubles’ Ross’ output, especially in PPR scoring, is much more common than most would think.
Matt Breida is an RB1
Matt Breida has been nothing but efficient when he has taken the field. Last season Breida averaged 5.3 yards per carry on 153 attempts while adding 27 receptions at an 87.1-percent catch rate. The advanced metrics back this up too: Breida was top-five in Breakaway Run Rate last season. This should surprise no one considering Breida’s 4.44 Forty-Yard Dash time and his 89th-percentile SPARQ-x score.
Whether on the ground or through the air, Breida is a simply #goodatfootball.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4Bgt1C5M2Q
Now he gets to be the lead-back with Tevin Coleman expected to miss multiple weeks due to an ankle injury. Coleman played a half of football in Week 1 and Breida still earned himself 15 caries.
Breida faces off against the Bengals this week. Last week Chris Carson had his way with them going 81 yards from scrimmage and scoring twice. Most notable were his six catches against the Bengals.
Breida has the athleticism and the skillset handle Cincinnati. The best part, he only costs $5,200 on DraftKings and $5,600 Fanduel. This will be the last week to get Breida at those prices even after Coleman comes back.
