Mike Evans and The Biggest Week 5 Fantasy Busts

by Granola Jeremy ·

It was all set before the season began. Chris Godwin would overtake Mike Evans as the alpha in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. Evans disappeared in Week 5, while Godwin ascended to the number one wide receiver chair in all of fantasy. Should we fade busts like Evans for good, steal them from opponents or play them for bounce-back weeks? PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics can help us figure out who to sell low and who to buy high.

Quarterback

Jacoby Brissett (10.9 points, QB20)

Jacoby Brissett‘s multi-touchdown streak came to an end against a porous Kansas City defense. He somehow led the Colts to an upset win, despite only scoring 10.9 fantasy points in the process.

Check out Jacoby Brissett on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Although Brissett has 10 passing touchdowns, No. 8 among qualified quarterbacks, he is middle-of-the-pack in most passing metrics on PlayerProfiler. Touchdown regression was likely, and his eight-to-three Interceptable Throws to Money Throws ratio exemplifies that.

Aaron Rodgers (9.4 points, QB22)

One week after his fantasy resurrection against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Aaron Rodgers fell backwards. He totaled 238 passing yards, while Aaron Jones (praise the fantasy gods) rushed for four touchdowns.

However, Rodgers is top-10 in five key passing metrics:

Now is a good buy-low opportunity thanks to Jones’ four-touchdown game.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans (0.0 points, WR114)

Because Chris Godwin excels out of the slot, Mike Evans is the de facto shadowed/bracketed receiver. Against Marshon Lattimore and the New Orleans Saints, Evans ran 24 routes and was held to zero receptions on three targets.

https://youtu.be/bICwLcG2o24

On the season, Evans is tied for the lead among wide receivers with 12 Deep Targets, leads the position with 619 yards of  Total Target Distance and averages 20.4 (No. 5) yards per reception. Because of his role and shadow-ability, Evans is the ultimate high-ceiling/low-floor wide receiver.

Odell Beckham (5.0 points, WR63)

Odell Beckham has now been held to two scoreless receptions in back-to-back weeks. He’s outside the top-36 in fantasy points per game, but holds a 27.4-percent (No. 6) Target Share.

However, Beckham is also outside the top-50 in:

  • Production Premium (-15.9) (No. 58)
  • Target Premium (-10.6-percent) (No. 65)
  • QB Rating when Targeted (67.5) (No. 80)
  • Catchable Target Percentage (74.4-percent) (No. 60)
  • Target Accuracy (6.69) (No. 64)

With that said, the window to swap Odell Beckham for an Amari Cooper or Chris Godwin-level player is closing.

Julio Jones (7.2 points, WR53)

For those with Mike Evans or Odell Beckham on their rosters: buy Julio Jones. He is top-10 in:

  • Targets (44) (No. 6)
  • Deep Targets (11) (No. 6)
  • Hog Rate (18.1-percent) (No. 10)
  • Red Zone Receptions (4) (No. 4)
  • Target Distance (570, No. 3)

Unlike Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham, Matt Ryan and Jones have a history of proven production.

Running Back

LeSean McCoy (2.3 points, RB62)

Damien Williams‘ Week 5 return obliterated LeSean McCoy‘s value. Somehow, McCoy failed to record a single carry.

On the season, McCoy has actually produced well in the Kansas City offense:

Still, McCoy hasn’t outsnapped Williams once this season in games where both were active.

Damien Williams (6.8 points, RB45)

Finally back to playing, Damien Williams posted a 60.4-percent Snap Share. While that is promising, his 12 touches for 38 scoreless yards was not.

https://youtu.be/xJbDlC2WOaM

Again, the bright spot is that Williams returned into a starting spot. He is the lead running back in this Kansas City Chiefs committee.

Tight End

O.J. Howard (2.0 points, TE40)

Against all odds, it’s O.J. Howard, not Jordan Howard, that has disappointed the fantasy community. Even with his 89.8-percent Snap Share, he caught one pass for 10 yards.

https://youtu.be/J_gmzVSbJpY

Howard is top-five in Average Target Distance, Catchable Targets, Target Quality, Target Accuracy and Deep Targets. Quarterback play is not the reason for him being a bust to this point. Instead, his 8.8-percent (No. 36) Target Share displays his poor production. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin commanding targets, Howard is droppable in non TE-premium leagues.

Greg Olsen (0.0 points, TE58)

Even with a 96.6-percent Snap Share, Jacksonville smothered Greg Olsen‘s Week 5 production. He’s scored only 2.5 points in two weeks.

However, on the year, Olsen is top-10 in:

His metrics are solid and display a buying opportunity.