Buy High and Sell Low Players After Week 9: Jamison Crowder Fake Alpha

by Kyle Dvorchak · Trades Buy/Sell

No one was selling Tyler Lockett because of one two quiet weeks (I’m switching Lockett and D.K. Metcalf‘s names in the first sentence every two weeks until further notice). There won’t be a single offer for Richie James after you put him on the block. Buying low and selling high rarely works. Even though you might be the only player in your league using PlayerProfiler, your opponents aren’t idiots. Grow up, take some risks, and buy high or sell low.

Buy High

Mike Williams, WR, LA Chargers

Mike Williams had been on a general trend in the right direction, but hasn’t had an explosive game since Week 5 against the Saints. He has 18 targets over the past three weeks, but hasn’t created 100 yards in a game over that span. Williams also only has one touchdown. Justin Herbert is throwing to him deep twice per game, and with a +38.3 Production Premium that ranks No. 2 among qualified quarterbacks, has been among the most efficient passers in the league this season. 

Check out Mike Williams on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Seasonal Rankings and Projections:

The only reason Williams doesn’t have more WR1 weeks is fluky touchdown production from Los Angeles role players. Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Williams make up 61.9-percent of the LA targets, but only 47.1-percent of the touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Chargers have five players with touchdown rates over 15-percent, only one of whom even has double-digit targets. As long as Herbert keeps throwing dimes, Williams will have more spike weeks in the near future. 

Jimmy Graham, TE, Chicago Bears

I know Jimmy Graham isn’t the name you wanted to see here, but it’s time to eat your vegetables and admit he’ll be a top-10 tight end by the end of the year. He entered Week 9 with a 15.7-percent (No. 12) Target Share. What Graham lacks in raw volume, he makes up for with red zone stats. The Bears have thrown to him 12 times in the red zone, fourth-most among tight ends. Because of his high-leverage role, he is third in receiving touchdowns by a tight end. His team is also passing on 66.3-percent of their plays. That rate is the highest in the league. Graham is a heavily-involved tight end on one the pass-heaviest team in the league and sees red zone work. His diminished brand value should keep his trade value close to zero.

Sell Low

Joshua Kelley, RB, LA Chargers

Mike Williams found himself on the Buy High list because he was a high-volume player on one of the best offenses in the league. Joshua Kelley lands on the Sell Low list because even though he is on the same roster, the Chargers seemingly don’t have a fantasy-relevant role carved out for him. Justin Jackson left Week 9 before recording a touch and Kalen Ballage rushed 15 times. Kelley only recorded nine totes. In Week 8, the Chargers gave Troymaine Pope 10 carries to Kelley’s nine. Pope was inactive until Week 5 while the Jets and Dolphins both deemed Ballage unfit for their respective rosters this year. Each has seen more work than Kelley.

Kelley was a middling prospect coming out of UCLA, so maybe his lack of usage is actually unsurprising. He recorded a 76th-percentile College Dominator Rating, but only averaged 5.1 (31st-percentile) yards per carry. Kelley also did not declare for the draft until his fifth year of college after redshirting for one season due to draconian NCAA transfer rules. He was then selected on Day 3 of the draft. It was always possible for him to be nothing more than a backup and a plodder. That has played out at the professional level, and he’s roughly as valuable as Jordan Wilkins or Gus Edwards at this point.

Jamison Crowder, WR, New York Jets

Outside of an impressive touchdown reception, Monday night was a tragedy for Jamison Crowder‘s fantasy backers. He was only targeted twice on 25 Joe Flacco pass attempts. Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman paced the team with eight and seven targets, respectively. Perriman has logged four 100-yard games in his eight previous contests. Mims was a mind-bending athlete and dominant collegiate producer at Baylor.

Crowder entered Week 9 with a 31.5-percent (No. 2) Target Share, but his competition for targets was nonexistent. Mims missed the start of the season with multiple hamstring injuries and Perriman has been in and out of the lineup with a slew of injuries. With both back in action, Crowder now has more than just practice squad players alongside him at receiver, and his Target Share will take a massive hit in future contests. Still playing on the Jets, a diminished Target Share may be the end of WR1 and WR2 Crowder as we know him.