Navigating NFL Free Agency News: 12 Winners and Losers Revealed! Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers
Winners
Saquon Barkley – RB | Philadelphia
One of the leagues best talents at the RB position goes to one of the best offenses in football. We can poke holes in Barkley’s target ceiling (Hurts is not going to pepper him with the amount of targets he could have seen elsewhere) and can point out that Hurts is a threat around the goal line and a potential TD vulture for a few scores. But boy, oh boy, does the pie grow larger in Philadelphia. This will be the best offense that Barkley has ever played in as a pro.
A wild 15-TD season is not out of the question. We also could see Barkley break off his fair share of longer runs next to a rushing threat like Hurts. This is as exciting a Free Agent signing at the RB position as we have seen in years. The narrative of staying in the same division with two games a season against the New York Giants will be must see TV for Fantasy managers. Did someone say Saquon Barkley revenge games?
Josh Jacobs – RB | Green Bay Packers
Jacobs lands on an ascending offense surrounded by young talent. Instead of playing with a rookie signal caller (or Gardner Minshew), Jacobs gets to play alongside Jordan Love, the QB5 overall in 2023. Jacobs has been one of fantasy football’s most consistent producers at the RB position and has never finished lower than RB18 in PPR PPG at his position in any season of his career. He has an immediate pathway to returning to RB1 production this season in Green Bay. He also should return to his 50+ reception production that he displayed in 2021 and 2022.
Green Bay cutting long-time fantasy standout Aaron Jones to sign Jacobs is telling of the big plans they have in store for him this season.
D’Andre Swift – RB | Chicago Bears
Chicago made Swift one of the highest paid RBs in football, with a three year, 24 million dollar deal. Swift is only 25 years old and joins an offense soon to be led by Caleb Williams. Swift ran for over 1,000 yards for the first time in Philadelphia last season, but his targets dipped to a career-low 49. This move to Chicago is a chance for Swift to regain the passing game prowess he displayed early on in his career in Detroit. Swift caught 62 passes in 2021, and a return to 50+ catches should be expected this season. No Free Agent signee gained as much of an immediate ADP bump as Swift did.
Evan Engram/Christian Kirk – TE/WR | Jacksonville
Gabe Davis signed with Jacksonville as the potential Calvin Ridley replacement on the outside (Ridley could re-sign with Jacksonville but it is very much up in the air). Davis could have been listed as a winner, but the real winners here for fantasy are Evan Engram and Christian Kirk. Stylistically, Davis can do a lot of the things Ridley did in the Jacksonville offense (25 red zone targets, 13.4 yards per reception), but it would be shocking to see Davis finish with a similar target total (136).
The Jaguars target leaders should continue to be Engram and Kirk. Engram was targeted a career high 143 times last season and led all TEs. Kirk should return to his 133-target total he saw in 2023. Jacksonville also improved their offensive line with the signing of Pro Bowl center Mitch Morse.
Drake London/Kyle Pitts – WR/TE | Atlanta
No NFL offense will look more different in 2024 than the Atlanta Falcons, and London and Pitts should be major beneficiaries. The Kirk Cousins’ signing indicates a major philosophical switch from the run centric days of Arthur Smith to a more balanced approach with an efficient, high octane passing game. Cousins was leading the NFL in TD passes last season when he tore his achilles in Week 8. London will have the best QB play of his career by a wide margin. The 8th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft is still only 22 years old. London has displayed immense talent but has had frustrating inconsistent fantasy usage. Those days are over. The WR1 in a Kirk Cousins-led offense has always been productive (six WR24 or better finishes since 2018).
Pitts has been one of the most disappointing players in redraft and in dynasty over the last two seasons. He has failed to deliver after his promising rookie season, and his fantasy narrative hit rock bottom last season with Jonnu Smith outproducing him for a large portion of the year. In Cousins, Pitts now has a fantasy life raft. The last time we saw Pitts attached to a competent long time NFL starter it was 2021 with Matt Ryan. Pitts finished that season with career highs of 68 receptions and 1,026 yards. A top-five TE finish is in the cards for the 23-year-old Pitts this season.
Derrick Henry RB Baltimore
The Ravens attempted to trade for Henry last year near the NFL’s Deadline. Henry was linked to Baltimore all offseason long as a probable Ravens Free Agent target. While this week’s signing was anticlimactic, boy was it exciting. Henry led the NFL in rushing attempts over the past two seasons and scored 25 TDs in the process. He has been one of Fantasy’s most productive RBs over the past six seasons, and is 13th All Time in NFL history with 90 rushing TDs.
Henry now gets to finish his career attached to the best QB he has ever played with in Lamar Jackson. While Jackson will get his fair share of rushing TDs, Henry should thrive in Baltimore. Gus Edwards scored 13 TDs last season in the same offense on only 198 carries. Henry will be the most productive Ravens RB since Mark Ingram in 2019. He has a chance to lead the NFL in TDs again at age 30.
Losers
Rhamondre Stevenson – RB | New England
There was hope for Stevenson returning to his 2022 production after a major decline in 2023. Stevenson rose up to RB19 in early Underdog ADP and was the only Patriot that drafters bet on. Expect that number to dip steadily and for Stevenson to drop to RB3 land. Antonio Gibson‘s signing severely limits Stevenson’s receiving ceiling. The 25-year-old Gibson has caught 172 passes in his four-year NFL career. This signing also indicates more of a committee approach for an offense that will most likely finish in the bottom half of the league in offense. The pie is simply not large enough to support two running backs.
Tyjae Spears – RB | Tennessee
Spears was one of the early offseason’s hottest names. The perceived heir apparent to Derrick Henry in Tennessee, Spears rose all the way to RB17 in early Underdog Drafts. Spears displayed an enticing combination of receiving prowess and explosive running ability as a rookie in 2023. The 2023 third round draft pick had a similar path to James Cook and Rachaad White last season- Day 2 selections who took meteoric fantasy leaps in their second seasons in the league.
Spears is still talented, but the pathway to volume was severely slashed with the Tony Pollard signing. Instead of the starter, Spears will return to his role as a pass catcher/change of pace back. Barring a Pollard injury, Spears will be stuck on fantasy benches this season.
Brian Robinson – RB | Washington
Robinson took a major step forward in 2023, finishing as RB21 overall during his second season in the league. Robinson caught 36 passes and finished with four TD grabs, which helped prop up his inefficient 3.9 yards per carry. There was hope for early Robinson Best Ball managers that his receiving production could increase with Antonio Gibson moving on as a Free Agent. Gibson did in fact move on, but his replacement is Austin Ekeler. Ekeler has lost a step, but he will still do what he has done best in his career: catch passes. Robinson will have to be way more efficient as a runner or more fortuitous with goal line opportunities, or his fantasy production will see a major decline in 2024.
Minnesota Vikings Pass Catchers
Here are a few facts: Justin Jefferson is one of the best offensive players in the NFL, T.J. Hockenson is one of the better pass-catching TEs, and Jordan Addison had one of the best rookie seasons in Minnesota history. All of those facts remain. But Minnesota now lacks stability at the quarterback position. They signed Sam Darnold as something of a stop gap or backup. There is no question that they will be a significant player for J.J. McCarthy, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. The problem is that Minnesota picks at No. 11 and all of those players should be gone by then. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will have his work cut out to make the most significant career decision.
Justin Fields
Fields is not a Free Agent, but he sure felt the effects of a busy day of action.
Potential landing spots Atlanta (Cousins), Pittsburgh (Russell Wilson), and Las Vegas (Gardner Minshew) closed. The market for Fields is just not there. Fields being an opening-day starter in 2024 is not a given.
Austin Ekeler/Tony Pollard
Spears and Robinson were both listed as losers, but Pollard and Ekeler also lose a significant amount of fantasy value. Both players go from backfields with little competition surrounding them, to probable committees. Every player involved is going to be a difficult player to trust as a weekly start. Woof.
Deandre Hopkins WR Tennessee
Hopkins went from being the clear cut top target in Tennessee’s offense, to a bit of a question mark. The Titans signed Calvin Ridley to a mega deal, making him one of the positions highest paid players. That sort of contract does not scream “WR2,” or co-WR1s with Hopkins. The Titans will use Ridley – a lot. Hopkins now will have to contend for targets. The Titans also signed Tony Pollard. When you add in incumbent RB Tyjae Spears, they have multiple backs with pass catching ability and using them seems to be part of the offensive plan. Despite Tennessee becoming more pass happy, The 31 year old Hopkins looks like a a slight Free Agency loser.
