This is NFL Best Bets Conference Championship Week! In this article series, we provide our best game line bets for the NFL slate each week on sportsbooks. With just three games left this season, it is time to end the season being on the right side three times.
This article contains our best bet for the upcoming round of the playoffs. For each bet in this article series, we provide a wager size recommendation (note: 1 unit = 1% of your gambling bankroll). It’s important to keep the exposure disciplined and stick to the recommendations. It is always worth line-shopping at the time you place your bet so that you can get the best value available online.
After a weekend of emotional turmoil where we were reverse-swept, we seek a bounceback and will do so with just one bet: a teaser for both games on Sunday.
2-Unit Teaser: Chiefs +9.5, 49ers -1 (-120, DraftKings)
One of the best ways to bet parlays in the NFL is through six-point teasers. The best way to approach betting teasers is to do it with spreads and encompass key numbers in football (common margins of victory) when doing so.
In this case, instead of betting the Kansas City Chiefs +3 or the San Francisco 49ers -7, we will ask the teams to cover alternate spreads of +9 and -1, respectively. If either of the games ends up with exactly the margin we bet, that leg pushes.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
On Saturday afternoon, the Kansas City Chiefs face the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens. It is just the second road playoff game of Patrick Mahomes‘ career. The first being came in the Divisional Series. In previous articles in this series, we have discussed the roster deficiencies of the Kansas City Chiefs. Their shallow pass-catching group and their leaky run defense are examples. Yet, the bright lights have brought out the best in Andy Reid’s squad again.
In two games of the playoffs, neither has been a glaring issue. During the Wild Card Round, rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice rose to the occasion. In the Divisional Round, the banged-up Bills defense had no answers for Travis Kelce. Patrick Mahomes has looked immaculate to begin the postseason once again. He’s posted zero turnover worthy plays and an 81.1-percent adjusted completion percentage. Of course, the Ravens’ elite coverage defense provides a new challenge. However, they also have trouble stopping the run. The Ravens rank bottom-10 on the ground as a defense in EPA per play allowed and run stop win rate. Last week, Kansas City took shots downfield early to open up the run game. This time, they could have success on the ground much more easily.
Chiefs Defense
The Chiefs have also been one of the hottest defenses in the NFL against the pass. This has been headlined by their rising pass rush courtesy of Chris Jones and company. The likely-MVP Lamar Jackson has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the last few years. However, he can be forced into a few mistakes when hurried. In Baltimore’s one playoff game, Jackson took three sacks on 11 pressured drop backs. Additionally, Jackson was guilty of one turnover-worthy play. This is the one situation where Baltimore clearly has a disadvantage at quarterback.
Mahomes has only lost a playoff game by double digits once in his career and once this season. He is now 9-1-1 against the spread in his NFL career as an underdog and 2-0 straight up in the playoffs. The best bet here is to ask Kansas City to not lose by double digits once again and either win outright or at least keep this game competitive.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions
Although fading the Detroit Lions did not work out for us in last week’s article, it took a lot of unlucky breaks for the Lions to barely cover their 6.5-point spread. This included a dropped interception by the Buccaneers. Additionally, a dropped reception by Mike Evans that led to a defensive interception for the Lions hurt. Overall, Detroit has been in two four-quarter battles in the playoffs so far to two teams that struggle to defend at a high level. Now, they have to face one of the best units in the NFL. The 49ers rank No. 10 in EPA per play allowed as a defense and No. 9 in pressure rate. That does not bode well for Jared Goff, who has gotten away with mistakes lately.
Jared Goff
On the season, Goff ranks No. 15 in danger plays, No. 20 in completion percentage under pressure, and No. 28 in catchable pass rate under pressure. In these playoffs, he has already posted two turnover-worthy plays and taken five sacks. Despite not throwing an interception five of his last six games, he is rightfully heavily juiced (at approximately -135) to throw a pick in this game.
It is telling that America’s most beloved team right now is a heavy underdog a week after covering as a heavy favorite. To cap it all off, the primary storyline of the game should be that, despite some rain-inflicted sloppiness in the Divisional Round, the San Francisco offense is still one of the best in the league even with Deebo Samuel banged up. Now, they will face a Lions team that had the worst defensive metrics of any team to make the playoffs.
It is rare for a team ranked as poorly as Detroit as a defense (No. 21 in EPA per play allowed, No. 26 in pass rush win rate, and No. 31 in run stop win rate) to win playoff games, let alone three in a row on the way to a Super Bowl. Take San Francisco to get the job done here and at least win the game.
