This is NFL Best Bets Conference Championship Round! Here, the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly. BetOpenly is a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In the Divisional Round, our picks were reverse-swept for the first time on the season. We start our bounce back with four best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton with odds that you can only get at BetOpenly.
As a reminder, BetOpenly has launched peer-to-peer player props. You now can also get better odds by 10 to 20 points than a traditional sports books which also charges on average 10%. When you see a player prop for -110 at another book, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and a value you cannot get anywhere else.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads). Additionally, gamers can combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail these picks with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers. Don’t chase wins or losses. Finally, play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Conference Championship Picks
Gus Edwards (BAL) OVER 4.5 receiving yards (+100)
This player prop is a pure line-read. Although the Ravens running back Gus Edwards has failed to hit this line in three straight games, his receiving yard line has stayed at 3.5 in Baltimore’s last couple of games. This week, it is up to 4.5. The books are hinting to us that Edwards is still going to run a handful of routes. Additionally, the Chiefs defense has been around middle-of-the-pack in volume and yards per reception allowed to running backs this season.
This is essentially one catch for Edwards in wet conditions. In Baltimore’s first playoff game, he drew two targets but only caught one and lost yardage. This is a clear regression spot, and Edwards has at least five receiving yards in seven of 10 games where he has at least one reception. Although this prop is juiced to around -115 on sportsbooks, we can save ourselves juice by getting this at a coin flip price on BetOpenly.
Josh Reynolds (DET) OVER 18.5 yards longest catch (+100)
This player prop is under the Receiving menu of the player prop betting page on BetOpenly. This is an extreme buy-low spot because Josh Reynolds has only hit this line in one of his previous five games and three of his last 10.
However, Reynolds now draws a matchup against a San Francisco team whose most significant weakness is their secondary. Reynolds’ tall build and high catch radius will allow him to win matchups against weaker, undersized 49ers defensive backs while most of their defensive attention is focused on Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Non-primary options against the 49ers have created big plays at will. Since coming off its Bye in Week 10, San Francisco has allowed 31 catches of at least 19 yards, including several to receivers that aren’t top-two options on their team (Rakim Jarrett, Romeo Doubs twice, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Curtis Samuel and Bo Melton). The weather is projected to be completely clear in San Francisco by the weekend, and we are only asking Reynolds to get us one explosive play.
Although this prop has normal Vegas juice on sportsbooks, you can get it at the price of a coin-flip on BetOpenly.
Trevor’s Conference Championship Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Over 11.5 yards longest catch (-108)
First and foremost, Gibbs has been fantastic for the Lions in his rookie season, with 1,250 scrimmage yards and ten touchdowns. In the last two playoff games, he has had at least one reception of 11.5 or more yards, showcasing his ability to make big plays.
Moreover, the 49ers’ defense has been susceptible to allowing long receptions this season. They have given up 29 receptions of at least 17 yards, which puts them in the bottom half of the league in that category. This presents a prime opportunity for Gibbs to exploit their secondary and make a big play.
Another factor to consider is the Lions’ offensive line. With Jonah Jackson out and Frank Ragnow very banged up, they will have a hard time mitigating the 49ers’ pass rush, forcing Goff to have more short throws to his running backs. This bodes well for Gibbs who has shown a propensity for making big plays in the passing game.
Finally, the Lions will likely be trailing in this game, which means they will be forced to pass more often. This will give Gibbs more opportunities to make big plays in the passing game, increasing the likelihood of him exceeding 11.5 yards on his longest reception.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) Over 0.5 touchdowns (+117)
Brandon Aiyuk has had a stellar season with the 49ers. In 2023, he recorded his first 1,000-yard season and has shown no signs of slowing down. Aiyuk has been a consistent target for the 49ers’ offense, and his ability to make big plays has been a crucial factor in the team’s success. The Lions are allowing the No. 3 most receiving yards per game to receivers lined up outside at 127 yards per game.
One of the reasons for Aiyuk’s success is the presence of quarterback Brock Purdy. Despite the criticism from some analysts, Purdy has been a reliable and effective quarterback for the 49ers. He has a high completion percentage and is particularly effective in the red zone, making him a valuable asset to the team.
Aiyuk’s performance against the Lions will also be aided by the fact that the Lions play man coverage at a top-10 rate. Aiyuk has shown he can exploit man coverage, earning 23-percent more yards against man coverage this season. In the playoffs, the Lions have been torched by Mike Evans (8/147/1) and Puka Nacua (9/181/1). This is a matchup that Aiyuk can take advantage of, and it will result in a big game for him. This line is currently -125 at other books providing a massive value to BetOpenly.
