This is NFL Best Bets Week 10! Here, we provide our best game line bets for the Sunday-Monday NFL slate each week on sportsbooks.
Each week’s article features picks on either the moneyline, spread, game total, or team total. For each bet, we will provide a wager size recommendation (note: 1 unit = 1% of your gambling bankroll). It’s important to keep the exposure disciplined and stick to the recommendations. It is always worth line-shopping at the time you place your bet so that you can get the best value available online.
In Week 9, our only play of the week (Buccaneers +3) survived despite a historic performance from C.J. Stroud in a comeback win from the Texans. Tampa Bay took control of the game in the first half, but Houston’s rookie quarterback made it a back and forth affair in the fourth quarter.
We are now 7-8 on the season. Let’s turn this win into a streak with these best bets for the loaded Week 10 Sunday slate.
1 Unit: Buccaneers Moneyline (-115, BetMGM)
Although Tampa Bay couldn’t come away from their Week 9 thriller with a win, they got the job done for us by covering the spread. We are going right back to a team that is now 0-4 since their bye in a matchup between two teams coming off a loss. If you are a follower of trends in the NFL, you’re in for a tough go in this one. The Titans are 0-6-0 straight up in their last six road games, and the Buccaneers are 0-7-1 against the spread in their last eight home games following a loss. Something has to give in a home game for Tampa Bay as essentially pick ‘em.
The Buccaneers are a tale of two identities on defense. While they have struggled against the pass and haven’t pressured the quarterback, they rank No. 2 in rush EPA/play allowed. That means the Titans can’t just bully their way into a slow game led by veteran running back Derrick Henry and will have to ask their rookie quarterback Will Levis to drop back and make some big plays. In just two career starts, Levis has already thrown four danger plays. When Levis has been pressured, his metrics plummet overall.
On offense, the Buccaneers should be able to take advantage of a pass-funnel Titans defense that already ranks No. 27 in overall defensive EPA/play and recently lost safety Kevin Byard due to trade.
This is nothing personal against the hot start to the career of Levis. However, at this price we are simply buying low on the more experienced roster in their comfortable home confines. Back Baker Mayfield and his Buccaneers to snap a lengthy losing streak against a retooling Titans squad.
1 Unit: Raiders Team Total UNDER 17.5 (-120, BetMGM)
We’re heading to Sunday Night Football for this one. Primetime unders on totals are now 23-7 this season. This is a system that has long been profitable in the NFL as the public seeks offense and the books keep hanging high numbers. In Week 10, we get a perfect bounce back spot for the New York Jets. The Jets will get to back their defensive prowess while also fading a Raiders offense that overperformed last week.
This game is a clear bounceback spot for the men in green and an opportunity to get back in the winning column. However, instead of trusting the Jets offense run by Zach Wilson and a mediocre receiving core, we’ll stick with what we know—their defense. The Jets defense ranks No. 4 in run stop win rate, No. 6 in DVOA, No. 1 in PFF grade, and No. 5 in EPA.
Due to the Jets’ staunch ability to stop the run, they cannot ride the ability of their workhorse back Josh Jacobs. Due to the Jets’ elite secondary play, they’ll have to get a near-perfect game from quarterback Aidan O’Connell to move the ball effectively. In a small sample size so far, O’Connel has posted a 75.0-percent catchable pass rate (No. 17), 0.043 adjusted EPA/play (No. 22), and 50.8 true passer rating (would be among league’s worst qualifiers). Coming off an emotionally-charged game against the cakewalk New York Giants where the Raiders scored 30, let’s fade a team that just isn’t as good as the line suggests.
