This is NFL Best Bets Week 15! Here, we provide our best game line bets for the NFL slate each week on sportsbooks.
Each week’s article features picks on either the moneyline, spread, game total, or team total. For each bet, we will provide a wager size recommendation (note: 1 unit = 1% of your gambling bankroll). It is important to keep the exposure disciplined and stick to the recommendations. You might also do some line-shopping at the time you place your bet so you can get the best value available online.
In Week 14, we split two 2-unit plays for +0.05u of profit. The Buccaneers took care of business on the road as an underdog on the moneyline. However, the Seahawks gave us quarterback injury news late in the week with Geno Smith getting ruled out. The 3.5 points of lost closing line value cost us as Seattle covered the closing spread of +14 but not our number of +10.5.
We are now 12-12 on the season. Let’s go streaking with these two Week 15 bets on the books.
1 unit: Lions -4 (-110, BetMGM)
The 4-point spread is a scary one to lay on the favorite. This is because it misses out on an important key number (3). However, in this case, there is a reason Vegas is not afraid to spot the Broncos this many points. Simply put, it is a rough matchup for a hot team facing a playoff-caliber Lions team that needs to stop the bleeding themselves.
Offensively, the Lions remain potent behind coordinator Ben Johnson. Their No. 13-ranked pass block win rate will match up against a Broncos defense that ranks No. 28 in pass rush win rate. This is great news for Jared Goff seeing a lot of clean pockets.
Jared Goff
This season, Goff ranks No. 9 in completion percentage and No. 7 in accuracy rating when kept clean. Overall, Goff also ranks top-8 in true passer rating, deep ball accuracy, and passer rating against both man coverage and zone coverage, which Denver’s defense mixes up at around a league-average rate. The Broncos’ defense is suffering multiple injuries right now. This includes questionable tags to starting linebacker Nik Bonitto and starting safety P.J. Locke. These injuries make this a canonical bounce back spot for the Lions offense.
Defensively, the Lions have regressed, and they have given up big plays across the field to just about everybody which has caused their recent struggles. However, the Broncos are candidates to help the Lions get things right defensively. Detroit ranks No. 12 in man coverage rate, and this season Russell Wilson‘s accuracy rating and passer rating plummet against man coverage. Wilson ranks outside the top-16 in both. Since coming off bye, Wilson still ranks only No. 17 among 30 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play. In that span, Denver has a 5-1 record. However, two of the wins were by one possession.
1 unit: Browns -3 (-110, BetMGM)
Despite some season-ending injuries to the Browns’ roster, they still have an argument for the title of “best defense in the NFL.” On the season, they rank No. 1 in EPA per play allowed, No. 1 in run stop win rate, and No. 3 in pass rush win rate while also leading the league in man coverage rate. We will gladly fade Justin Fields on a two-game win streak after a spike performance against a regressing Lions defense. Additionally, Chicago had the advantage of coming off of a Bye Week. Fields still ranks No. 21 in EPA per play overall, No. 24 in accuracy rating against man coverage, and No. 39 in catchable pass rate overall. His best receiver, D.J. Moore, is also questionable and did not practice on Wednesday.
On the other side, the Browns offense may not be drawing many believers nowadays with Joe Flacco at quarterback. However, their most important weapons are still healthy, and that should be enough against this Bears defense. On the season, Chicago ranks No. 27 in dropback EPA per play allowed while playing the No. 11-most zone coverage in the league. Flacco is an experienced veteran who has consistently been far superior as a thrower against zone coverage, and he should be able to control this game at home.
We are snagging the push potential of a 3-point win, but the hope is we do not need it since Cleveland is far superior in this spot and are not getting enough respect at home.
