Welcome back to the 2023-24 NFL season and this article series, where we provide our best game line bets for the Sunday-Monday NFL slate each week on sportsbooks. This week we look to make NFL Best Bets for Week 4!
Each week’s article features two to three picks on either the moneyline, spread, game total, or team total. For each bet, we will provide a wager size recommendation (note: 1 unit = 1% of your gambling bankroll). It’s important to keep the exposure disciplined and stick to the recommendations. It is always worth line-shopping at the time you place your bet so that you can get the best value available online.
In Week 3, we split our bets. The Patriots -2.5 was a sweat, but it was a successful wager. As we predicted, New England controlled the pace of the game from the get-go in icky weather and never surrendered their lead as Zach Wilson and his support crew continued to struggle to sustain drives. On the other hand, Broncos +6.5 was the worst bet anybody could have made in Week 3. The Miami offense, led by NFL Coach of the Year candidate Mike McDaniel, is simply the best in the NFL right now. With Jaylen Waddle inactive, they were a kneel away from breaking the single-game NFL scoring record. A 70-20 home win established them as part of the AFC contenders going forward. The Broncos fell to 0-3 under Sean Payton.
We are now 2-4 on the season and are still seeking the elusive sweep to start a hot streak. Let’s hope it appears this weekend. So, let’s dive into our bets for Week 4, which includes our first 2-unit bet of the season.
2 Units: Jaguars -3 (-105, FanDuel)
We are starting off with the ultimate buy-low spot and heading across the ocean for the 2023 London game between two teams that have already played in London in the last few years. Two years ago, the Falcons beat the Jets. Last year, the Jaguars beat the Broncos on U.K. soil. However, both teams look very different now. Therefore, we are able to buy the significantly better roster at the price of just one field goal.
Through the first three weeks of the season, the division-favorite Jaguars have disappointed their way into a 1-2 record. Most of the surprise has come from their mediocre offense. Trevor Lawrence ranks No. 33 in completion percentage and catchable pass rate under pressure and No. 15 in true passer rating. His receivers haven’t helped him either, ranking second in the league with seven dropped passes so far. This is a get-right spot for an offense that was surgical in the second half of last season. The Falcons’ passing defense ranks No. 21 in expected points contributed. The pass-first Jacksonville offense—led by a quarterback who ranked No. 7 in expected points added and No. 11 in adjusted yards per attempt last season—should be licking their chops.
Falcons Offense
As for the Falcons offense, they rely on a run-first game to keep the ball out of the hands of Desmond Ridder, who is yet to prove he can be a starter in the NFL long-term. So far this season, Ridder ranks No. 41 in catchable pass rate and No. 16 in expected points added. It is no coincidence that he struggled and failed to lead a touchdown drive against an improved Detroit defense in Week 3. The Jacksonville rushing defense ranks No. 7 in expected points contributed.
Matching up against Atlanta’s preferences on offense will be key for Doug Pederson. Their personnel should be able to turn this into a Ridder vs. Lawrence pace battle, and it is clear who has the edge here.
1 Unit: Texans Team Total OVER 20.5 (+102, DraftKings)
Over the course of the season, sportsbooks will adjust their lines based on player performance, but they tend to be slower adjusting to information on rookies. We are targeting the legitimate and still-underrated Houston offense led by the connection between rookies C.J. Stroud and Nathaniel “Tank” Dell.
Dynasty managers with CJ Stroud or Tank Dell have got to be STOKED right now 📈 pic.twitter.com/22bgTUOKg6
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) September 27, 2023
The Steelers defense ranks No. 7 in the NFL in expected points contributed. However, In the two games Pittsburgh’s defense had success, they faced a declining Deshaun Watson and an aging Jimmy Garoppolo. A lot of their success also comes because of posting the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Now they face Stroud, who has had to deal with a battered offensive line all season long and still ranks No. 11 in catchable pass rate, around middle-of-the-pack under pressure, and No. 8 in adjusted yards per attempt. It is time to adjust. Stroud should have been the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft and now he gets to face another team that ranks top-10 in the NFL in pace of play. This should allow for more opportunities to get the offense going at home.
At plus-money, it is a great buy-early spot on a home team. I expect the Texans to keep it competitive in the scoring department. Additionally, bettors won’t to worry about the defensive side of the ball.
