NFL Draft Odds | 2023 NFL Draft Week Best Bets

by Ahaan Rungta · Betting & Props

The 2023 NFL Draft is officially upon us. This Thursday, the Carolina Panthers will be on the clock to open up what should be a fascinating first round in Kansas City. A large chunk of the PlayerProfiler family will be present for draft festivities. They have you covered for analysis, fantasy impact, and live reactions. For the purposes of this article, we will be diving into the NFL Draft odds to see where bettors may find an advantage. 

In the coming days, there is still money to be made finding betting value on Day 1 of the NFL Draft. We are here to help you find that value. Last week, Cody Carpentier, Shervon Fakhimi, and I provided an early look into the NFL Draft prop board. We provided several value spots. Congratulations to those who listened to The Juice early. These listeners found some closing line value on first round props, including some long shots.

If you missed the episode, check it out now on the PlayerProfiler network. Everything from chalky first-round bets to sprinkles on +4000 running back props were covered.

With just a couple of days remaining, here are some additional props that I find value in as the market is yet to adjust properly to some recent rumors. Here are my three favorite bets of 2023 NFL Draft week. As usual, be disciplined with your wagers and bet responsibly. I have personally labeled each bet with my wager size.

Pick No. 1: Over 1.5 running backs drafted in Round 1 (-130, FanDuel); 1 unit

This line was previously plus-money. The market has started to suggest that along with first-round lock Bijan Robinson, the versatile profile of Jahmyr Gibbs could be a great fit for multiple teams picking late in the first round. With the Chargers (pick 21), Minnesota Vikings (pick 23), Dallas Cowboys (pick 26), Buffalo Bills (pick 27), Cincinnati Bengals (pick 28), New Orleans Saints (pick 29), and Philadelphia Eagles (pick 30) all in contention to acquire a running back early in the draft, it makes sense that one of those could elect to go with Gibbs with their first pick. That would cash this bet. On last week’s episode of The Juice, Cody Carpentier proposed an ideal landing spot in the first round for Gibbs. 

Pick No. 2: New England Patriots first drafted player to be a cornerback (+380, FanDuel); 0.25 units

The market has continued to favor wide receiver as the favorite for this prop over the last one week. However, I’m not convinced by the reported local smoke that the Patriots are heavily involved in the Zay Flowers sweepstakes. While it is noteworthy that the Patriots have not imitated their usual selves and traded out of the No. 14 spot already, that does not mean that they will hold that pick until they are on the clock on Draft Day.

In fact, as recently as 2020, New England viewed eventual-superstar wideout Justin Jefferson as a priority at the No. 23 overall pick. However, after missing out on him, New England traded their first-round pick away and ended up making safety Kyle Dugger their first pick of the draft in the second round.

Even if New England really does want to draft a wide receiver in the first round this year, there are no guarantees that they will get their pass-catcher of choice. If they don’t, history suggests they won’t be afraid to trade down. The nice thing about this market is that we do not need New England to draft a cornerback with the No. 14 pick. We simply need them to draft a cornerback first. 

The Patriots depth chart currently lists Jonathan Jones and Myles Bryant as their starting cornerbacks. This includes a banged up Jack Jones as another option. After Bryant had an underwhelming 2022 season, where he allowed five touchdowns and only recorded five pass break-ups, it is certainly a Bill Belichick move to address that area of need before the wide receiver room. This makes the implied price of 20.8-percent a spot of great value.

Longshot: Bijan Robinson to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4000, FanDuel); 0.25 units

This is a prop I teased at the end of last week’s episode of The Juice. While team visits don’t mean even close to everything, it is noteworthy that the undisputed No. 1 running back of the 2023 class has recently revealed that his only two visits were with the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yet, the market is implying a 2.4-percent probability that Robinson heads to Tampa Bay. While Philadelphia’s +750 price suggests a much more chalky 11.8-percent. This discrepancy in price does not feel reasonable.

Tampa Bay recently cut ties with playoff hero Leonard Fournette. The Buccaneers are still yet to show any sort of workhorse faith in former third-round pick Rachaad White. Despite Fournette dealing with serious injuries in 2022, White only recorded one game with a snap share over 65% in his rookie season. This was despite his elite college receiving profile. Robinson profiles as a much better overall prospect. Even though the Buccaneers would likely need to trade up to acquire him, 40 to 1 seems like a gift of a price given that their current plan at quarterback is Baker Mayfield. A 0.25-unit wager on this would win 10 units.