NFL Offenses to Target and Avoid in Fantasy Football Based on Their Offensive Line

It is finally July, which means the light at the end of the NFL offseason tunnel is finally starting to shine. In just a few short weeks, teams will be starting their training camps and preparing for the 2024 season. For fantasy, it means parsing through information to figure out which NFL offenses we should target and avoid. To determine which offenses to target or avoid, I will be consulting changes to the offensive line rankings which you can find at PlayerProfiler – click here!

The start of the NFL season means that fantasy football drafts are just around the corner. Here at PlayerProfiler, we are dedicated to uncovering every edge imaginable for fantasy football players. For this article, we will take our analysis into the trenches to look at offenses we can expect to improve (or regress) in 2024 based on their offensive line play. 

Below, you’ll find some of the offenses we can expect to improve based on their offensive line in 2024. You’ll also find teams that could suffer from regression due to losses along the offensive line.

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Offenses that Should Improve

New York Jets

It shouldn’t be hard for the Jets’ offensive line to improve because they were so bad last year. Injuries were a factor in the team’s struggles, but every worst-case outcome for the offensive line happened in 2023.

The only players on the offensive line who played over 900 snaps (Laken Tomlinson and Mekhi Becton) combined to allow nine sacks and 101 pressures. Alijah Vera-Tucker led the unit with a 71.7 PFF grade. But again, he suffered a season-ending injury. Vera Tucker‘s played just 682 snaps over the last two seasons after logging 1,027 as a rookie. Joe Tippman was better as a run blocker than a pass blocker. He gave up 20 pressures on 578 pass-blocking snaps.

Improvement On Paper

On paper, the Jets are one of the most improved units heading into 2023, albeit with a lot of injury risk. New York traded for Morgan Moses to upgrade the right tackle position. Additionally, they signed John Simpson and Tyron Smith in free agency to overhaul the left side of their offensive line. They also added Penn State’s Olu Fashanu in the first round of the NFL draft, adding arguably the top rookie tackle as depth.

The Jets’ projected starting offensive line (Tyron Smith/John Simpson/Joe Tippmann/Alijah Vera-Tucker/Morgan Moses) averaged a 70.1 PFF grade, 67.1 pass-blocking grade, and a 70.9 run-blocking grade. Collectively the group was credited with just 12 sacks and 102 pressures surrendered last year. For context, just one player on the offensive line (Alijah Vera-Tucker) had a PFF grade above 56.0. The Jets offensive line surrendered 50 sacks and 280 pressures last year.

There are certainly injury concerns across this group. However, the Jets have experienced depth at all levels of the depth chart and a first-round left tackle waiting in the wings. A better offensive line combined with a healthy Aaron Rodgers should help the Jets offense make a complete turnaround in 2024.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina’s offensive line was brutal last season despite having three starters play over 1,100 snaps. Luckily for Carolina, two of the three were the tackle tandem of Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton. Moton allowed just one sack and 41 pressures on 730 pass-blocking snaps. Ekwonu was solid in his second season (67.4 PFF grade). However, he continues to struggle with pass protection at the NFL level (11 sacks and 44 pressures surrendered on 730 pass-blocking snaps).

The middle of the offensive line was a mess. Nine different players played at least 77 snaps at guard for Carolina. Six different players had at least 190 snaps. That group surrendered 16 sacks and 96 sacks. That is far from ideal with a short, pocket passer quarterback under center. This poor offensive line play contributed heavily to Bryce Young’s struggles as a rookie.

Improvement

Carolina worked this offseason to improve their offensive line, signing guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt in free agency. Lewis has been inconsistent throughout his career, allowing 10 sacks and 97 pressures on 2,308 career pass protection snaps. He had two seasons with a PFF grade above 70.0 and two seasons with a grade below 60.0. He allowed 29 pressures and three sacks last season (610 pass protection snaps). The real gem of the class could be Robert Hunt.

Hunt was having his best season in 2023 before injuries limited him to just 547 snaps. He posted a career-high PFF grade (77.1) and pass-blocking grade (74.5), allowing just one sack and five pressures on 329 protection snaps. The Dolphins have an offensive line friendly offensive scheme, but Hunt’s abilities should help him play anywhere.

There are some risks with this unit. Austin Corbett will be playing center for the first time in his career after struggling to return from a 2022 ACL tear last season. Damien Lewis has been wildly inconsistent to start his career. Ikem Ekwonu still struggles to stand out, especially in pass protection. Regardless, this is a much better unit than 2023’s. Expect Bryce Young to look better and the backfield to have ample running lanes, especially on the right side of the line.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans had some encouraging performances across the offensive line in 2023. However, the left tackle position was an albatross. The combination of Andre Dillard and Jaelyn Duncan played 901 of the 1,049 snaps last season and combined to give up 41-percent of the team’s sacks (21) and 29-percent of the team’s pressures (77). Tennessee entered the offseason knowing that they had to upgrade the left tackle position to improve the offense.

No Joe Alt, But…

Joe Alt didn’t fall to the Titans in the NFL Draft. However, the team was able to get their left tackle of the present and future with Alabama’s J.C. Latham with the No. 7 pick of the NFL Draft. Latham played on the right side with the Crimson Tide and allowed just two sacks and 20 hurries over the last two seasons. There is always some risk in flipping an offensive lineman to a different position, but Latham has the size and athleticism to make it work.

The Titans also added free agents Lloyd Cushenberry III and Saahdiq Charles in free agency. Cushenberry will certainly be an upgrade at center after allowing just 14 pressures on 647 pass-blocking snaps with Denver last season. Charles is a solid veteran who will compete with Daniel Brunskill and Dillon Radunz for the starting right guard position. All three players have multi-position appeal across the offensive line. This gives the Titans excellent depth.

Those additions, with the arrival of top offensive line coach Bill Callahan, make this a very interesting offensive line heading into 2024. Fortifying the left tackle position should solve a lot of the team’s protection issues. Additionally, Latham is a force in the run game. This will only help Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears in the backfield.

Offenses to Worry About

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins’ offensive line lost their two most talented players this offseason in center Connor Williams and right guard Robert Hunt. Both players missed time throughout the year with injuries (and to be fair, Williams still hasn’t signed as he recovers from a late-season ACL tear). However, they were strong producers when on the field.

Their departures, mixed with the inconsistencies of the pieces left behind, make the Dolphins’ offensive line very questionable next season. Terron Armstead is still absurdly talented and has posted a 75.0+ PFF grade in 10 straight seasons. However, he has played more than 800 snaps just four times in his 11-year career. The projected starting guards are Isaiah Wynn (47.4 PFF grade on 392 snaps before being injured) and Robert Jones. Jones is a career reserve who has never played more than 450 snaps in a season. Aaron Brewer was brought in as a free agent to replace Williams at center. He was solid last season with the Titans (71.6 PFF grade). However, he allowed the No. 2 most sacks (6) and the most pressures (34) of all centers in the NFL last season.

Limited Additions

Miami only added offensive tackle Patrick Paul during the NFL draft. They selected him in the first round. Paul is a developmental tackle who flashed plenty of inconsistency during his time at Houston. He needs seasoning before playing in the NFL. The problem is he may not be afforded the time with Armstead’s health in a constant state of flux.

The Dolphins will certainly be able to use creative play design and motion to continue to generate big plays, especially in the run game. A strong offensive line isn’t crucial to operating the wide zone running scheme as long as the offensive linemen are mobile and can get to their landmarks. However, the area of concern for the offense comes in the form of the passing attack.

Passing Attack

Yes, Miami will generate plenty of explosives in the passing attack. It is impossible not to when your receiving corps is made up of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But it can’t be overstated how bad Tua Tagovailoa was under pressure last season.

Only Josh Allen (95.0) had a higher PFF grade than Tua Tagovailoa (93.9) operating out of a clean pocket in 2023. Tua completed 75.4-percent of his passes in a clean pocket, throwing for 4,057 yards and 27 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. On his 150 pressured dropbacks, his completion percentage plummeted to 40.7-percent. He threw for just 622 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions and 19.3-percent of his pressures turned into sacks.

Miami’s system and personnel decrease the importance of world-beating offensive linemen. However, Tua will need to be more efficient under pressure with a bad offensive line in front of him next season. If he doesn’t, it could be a long season for Miami and a longer season for fantasy managers hoping for explosives from Miami’s skill players.  

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore has been synonymous with strong offensive line play for most of the 21st century. Over the last 20+ years, Baltimore has had recognizable names like Jonathan Ogden, Ronnie Stanley, Ben Grubbs, Marshall Yanda, Matt Birk, and Kevin Zeitler as parts of their offensive line. However, 2024 will be a year of transition for many parts of a unit that has enjoyed success in recent history.

Ronnie Stanley is still a good player, but he hasn’t played more than 721 snaps since the 2019 season and injuries have impacted his ability. He allowed a career-high four sacks and 39 pressures on 431 pass-blocking snaps last season. Tyler Linderbuam is on the cusp of being a top center in the NFL. Through two seasons he’s had at least a 74.0 PFF grade and a 78.7 run blocking grade. He improved mightily in pass protection last season, cutting his sacks (3 to 0) and pressures (26 to 15) in his second year.

The rest of this unit is a question mark.

Offseason Moves

Baltimore traded away right tackle Morgan Moses during the offseason and let guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson leave in free agency. The Ravens drafted a right tackle (Washington’s Roger Rosengarten) in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. However, he needs to add some bulk to a lean frame. The Ravens will be hoping a lot of young depth can step up and deliver after developing on the bench.

Patrick Mekari (69.5 PFF grade) has started his career with five straight seasons of a 66.0 or higher PFF grade but is best used as a swing tackle (and frankly, injury depth for Ronnie Stanley). Left guard will be manned by either 2023 sixth-round pick Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu or 2023 seventh-round pick Andrew Vorhees. 2021 third-round pick Ben Cleveland is expected to compete with free agent Josh Jones to start at right guard. Daniel Faelele will need to try and beat out Rosengarten for the right tackle position but has given up seven sacks and 20 pressures on 202 pass protection snaps to start his career.

Given Baltimore’s track record of talent identification, it may be unfair to assume that integrating three new starters into the offensive line will have disastrous results. After all, the Ravens have the perfect backfield combination to overcome underwhelming play in the trenches with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see this group struggle to start the year as the team figures out the best five players to play on Sundays.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints entered the 2024 offseason with several issues to try and figure out along their offensive line. 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning has been a colossal bust at left tackle, playing six games in 2023 before getting benched for the season in favor of left guard Andrus Peat. Through two seasons, Penning has played just 541 snaps and surrendered 21 pressures and four sacks on 278 pass protection snaps. The Saints let Peat walk in free agency, leaving them with a hole at left tackle and guard.

The issues didn’t stop there though. Long-time right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is at risk of missing the season due to a knee surgery that isn’t healing properly. Ramczyk stated his knee cartilage has deteriorated which is the primary reason why he’s logged 900 or more snaps once since 2020. That leaves the Saints with one very good returning starter (center Erik McCoy) and one underwhelming starter (right guard Cesar Ruiz).

2023 fourth-round pick Nick Saldiveri is slated to start at left guard after playing just 18 snaps as a rookie. The team also drafted Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Fuaga was an excellent right tackle in college but struggled at times as a pass protector. The Saints will attempt to flip him to left tackle, which is a curious decision given his strengths as a powerful run defender with okay athleticism.

Assuming Ramczyk is unable to play for most of the season, this unit could be disastrous in 2024. They have just one dependable offensive lineman at the center position and four question marks surrounding him. This could be another season of quick passing and check-downs for Derek Carr in New Orleans.

For more from Dan Fornek, check out this article – Offensive Line Rankings by Position (Top 10) | NFL Football (playerprofiler.com)

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