Welcome back to the 2023-24 Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em article series, your spot for finding the best-value weekly spots to pick whether players will go higher or lower than their projection. As usual, if you want weekly audio content for pick ‘ems, including getting in early on some lines that will move early in the week, check out the Pick ‘Em Power Hour every Wednesday and Friday with us hosts, Ahaan S. Rungta (@AhaanRungta) and Trevor Tipton (@FFCULater).
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We are coming off yet another week with a winner as Ahaan’s two-pick entry cashed with ease, continuing a hot streak on the show and in these articles.
If you would like to tail our plays or create your own, join Underdog today with promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100% deposit match up to $100 USD upon entry. Here are our picks for Week 10.
Ahaan’s Week 10 Picks
Jake Ferguson (DAL) LOWER than 36.5 receiving yards
The Cowboys’ new starting tight end is coming off a career game with 10 targets, seven receptions, 91 receiving yards, and a touchdown. That was with Dallas in a divisional dogfight against Philadelphia, whose shallow secondary prioritized containing CeeDee Lamb and stopping the run effectively. It should be a completely different story in Week 10, so let’s sell high.
Only 69-percent of Ferguson’s targets this season have come in a one-score games. Additionally, he has only cleared this line in two of Dallas’ five wins. Early in the game, to assert dominance, the Cowboys should have no issues running the ball against a Giants defense that ranks No. 22 run stop win rate and No. 23 rush EPA/play defense. They should also be able to get the ball to Lamb with ease as he has a mismatch against everybody in the New York secondary. Late in the game, if it gets out of hand, Dallas won’t need to pass the ball much. Ferguson is mostly a red zone duty guy and doesn’t have the athletic profile or the average depth of target (ranks No. 31 among tight ends) to create the big plays. Therefore, he’d need to get elite volume again to get to this number.
Rivals Receptions: Christian Kirk (JAX) HIGHER than Calvin Ridley (JAX)
Let’s head back to the nifty Rivals feature on Underdog Fantasy, a menu right underneath your usual “Higher/Lower” menu on the navigation bar. For this play to hit, we just need Christian Kirk to catch more passes than his teammate Calvin Ridley, regardless of how many each haul in.
This season, Kirk has out-targeted Ridley 60 to 58 and out-caught Ridley 43 to 33. The Jaguars have gotten off to a hot start this season. However, in their two losses, Ridley has recorded two receptions and three receptions on eight targets and seven targets, respectively. This is while Kirk notched 11 receptions and four receptions on 14 targets and six targets, respectively. Against a rested 49ers defense that has an elite pass rush, Trevor Lawrence is going to have to get the ball out quickly in short-yardage situations, and it is clear who his safety blanket has been on the year—it’s Kirk.
Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry
In addition, San Francisco’s weakness is in covering the slot position, and Kirk will draw cornerback Isaiah Oliver. Oliver ranks No. 88 in PlayerProfiler’s coverage rating and No. 92 in catch rate allowed. The sportsbooks are ahead of this situation with Kirk’s receptions line being juiced heavily at “over 4.5” (-160) with Ridley’s receptions line being nearly pick ‘em at “over 4.5” (-105). Let’s take advantage with the coin-toss value of Kirk as pick ‘em.
Trevor’s Week 10 Picks
Sam LaPorta (DET) HIGHER than 4.5 receptions
Sam LaPorta has quickly become one of Jared Goff‘s favorite targets in his 2023 rookie campaign. This week they take on the Los Angeles Chargers. The Lions have a 26.5 implied team total and in order to get there this week LaPorta will need to be a big part of their plans. The Chargers have been very soft against tight ends this season, and I expect this trend to continue this week.
LaPorta is currently averaging 7.5 targets per game and has multiple eight catch games in this 2023 season. His role has continued to blossom this year and now he has a 70.5-percent route opportunity per game while getting 22-percent of the Lions air yards. One of the most important stats for receptions is first read opportunities. LaPorta now is getting 20-percent of those first read opportunities. More importantly, LaPorta is having designed plays specifically for him implemented into the Lions offense.
The Los Angeles Chargers are a bottom 10 defense against tight ends this season. They are giving up 10.4 yards per route run. The Chargers are also allowing the No. 5 worst catch rate to tight ends in the NFL. This game has one of the higher totals on this week’s slate, and we expect a heavy dose of LaPorta in this game. This is a great opportunity for a pick em we believe will land at 5.0 or 5.5 come Sunday on Underdog.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) HIGHER than 51.5 receiving yards
Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills is poised to have a big game against the Denver Broncos in Week 10. The rookie tight end has been coming on strong in recent weeks, and he is facing a Broncos defense that has struggled to cover tight ends this season. As a matter of fact, they have struggled to cover just about anyone this season. In case you have been living on the moon, Kincaid has blossomed into their WR 2.
The matchup against the Broncos is particularly favorable for Kincaid because the Broncos are likely to focus their defensive attention on Stefon Diggs, the Bills’ top wide receiver. This should leave Kincaid with more one-on-one opportunities against slower linebackers and safeties while Patrick Surtain II is on Diggs.
Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry
The Broncos have the worst pass defense in the NFL against tight ends, allowing an average of 71.1 receiving yards per game. They also allow an outstandingly bad 79.4-percent catch rate to tight ends. In the last three games, Kincaid now has 125 yards after the catch and more importantly 8.84 yards per target. Kincaid is also getting 23-percent of Josh Allen’s first reads while only running 20-percent of his routes inline. Allen’s passing line is currently 274.5 yards juiced to the over at sportsbooks and PlayerProfiler models him for close to 300 this week. More than 51.5 of those will be coming from Dalton Kincaid.
