NFL Week 7 | Everything You Need to Know

by Matt Babich · Dynasty Leagues

Welcome back to the “Everything You Need to Know” series! In Week 6, we correctly focused on Carolina’s true alpha in Adam Thielen, underestimated the ability of the Rams defense, and got out in front of our skis with Emari Demercado. We struggled again with our DFS picks last week, but with this’s week’s slate, I’m as confident in the process as ever. Let’s get right into everything you need to know for the NFL Week 7!

Christian WatSZN

After a slow start returning from a hamstring injury, Christian Watson‘s opportunity returned to the elite level we saw it rise to last season. In Week 5, Watson earned a 23-percent Target Share, 70-percent Air Yards Share, and generated 3.8 Yards per Route Run. Coming off the bye, Watson returns even healthier to face off against a lifeless Broncos defense. Fantasy gamers should acquire Watson while they can.

Dalton Schultz Resurgence

Week 6 was Schultz’s third straight week with a touchdown and a top-6 positional performance. It was also his sixth consecutive game with a red zone target. Houston’s offense is going to be sustaining drives all season long. If Schultz is going to be a top-5 tight end in terms of red zone opportunity, then he’s a weekly streaming option in what is becoming a high-octane passing offense.

Michael Mayer Takeover

It took long enough, but Las Vegas finally realized that their second-round pick Michael Mayer is better than Austin Hooper. Mayer’s snap share has now increased in four consecutive weeks. Against the Patriots, he earned a career-high six targets (two red zone) and 75 receiving yards. In a pass-heavy Raiders offense, we’re very close to having Mayer be a weekly start.

Tyler Lockett Sneaky Volume

Through five games, Tyler Lockett is the target leader for the Seattle Seahawks. He is also the red zone target leader. The issue is that he’s been struggling to connect with quarterback Geno Smith. Facing a Cardinals defense that allows a plethora of red zone appearances, Lockett is a solid bet to find the end zone this week. While his production has been sporadic thus far, this is the type of matchup that Lockett managers will want to start him in.

#QuentinJohnstonIsOverParty

If you believed before, it’s time to face the music. Quentin Johnston is not the guy. With Mike Williams out, Johnston has still yet to crack a 55-percent Snap Share or three targets this season. There may be spike weeks being on the Chargers offense, but don’t be fooled. This is the bust of the 2023 receiver class. 

Implied Team Totals

Highest Implied Team Totals (Projected Points Scored)

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (27)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (26.75)
  3. Seattle Seahawks (26.25)
  4. San Francisco 49ers (25.5)
  5. Buffalo Bills (24.75)

The obvious chalk-game of the week is the Eagles against the Dolphins. Two high-powered offenses getting together in what everyone hopes to be a shootout. You’ll certainly want to have some exposure to this game.

My contrarian shootout pick of the week lies with Arizona and Seattle. Prior to two defensive-led stints against struggling offenses, Seattle played in back-to-back games with 60+ points scored. The Cardinals offense has shocked us all to start the season. Joshua Dobbs has enough mobility and arm talent to move the ball against the defense, and we could see another shootout in Seattle.

Lowest Implied Team Totals (Projected Points Scored)

  1. New England Patriots (16.75)
  2. Atlanta Falcons (17)
  3. Chicago Bears (17.25)
  4. Arizona Cardinals (17.75)
  5. Indianapolis Colts (18.25)

As I said earlier, I’m fading the low-scoring narrative when it comes to Marquise Brown, as he should be getting enough opportunity and is the most-probable player on that offense to find the endzone.

Following a similar trend, I’m on board with suiting up all of the alpha-receivers in these low scoring offenses. Drake London has been phenomenal over the past few weeks, Michael Pittman was as steady as even on Sunday, and I’m even willing to send out D.J. Moore against a Raiders secondary that was cooked by Kendrick Bourne last week.

DFS Values: Matthew Stafford ($6500), Jerome Ford ($5100), Roschon Johnson ($4600), Christian Watson ($5600), Marquise Brown ($5300), Luke Musgrave ($3300)

Injury Report

Lions’ Backfield

The state of the Lions backfield is as uncertain as it’s ever been. David Montgomery will be out for a few weeks and Craig Reynolds did not participate in practice on Wednesday with hamstring and toe injuries. This leaves Jahmyr Gibbs as the healthiest back in the room. If Reynolds were to sit this week, rookie Mohammed Ibrahim should be the one to get the backup work.

Justin Fields

Justin Fields did not practice yet this week and is expected to be out for a few weeks (or more) with his thumb injury. Don’t get your hopes up on a quick return.

Roschon Johnson

Roschon Johnson has unfortunately not yet cleared concussion protocol this week, a bad sign for his availability. Concussions come in different shapes and sizes, so to speak, so while most players only miss one game, it’s tough to tell how long a player could sit. If he returns, he’s a must start.

Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson has been deemed “ready to go” and should suit up this week and the RB2 behind Raheem Mostert. We have not heard any talk of a snap count yet. If we avoid those reports, Wilson is a flex play this week.

Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson is still not practicing with his shoulder injury, an injury he reportedly could deal with all season. Considering the reports that he’s cleared for participation, it’s murky as to when Watson will see the field again. Backup P.J. Walker brings the ceiling of the Browns offense down.

Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones logged a limited session on Wednesday. He’s trending towards returning to action against the Washington Commanders, although at this point, he may be worse for this offense than backup Tyrod Taylor.

Kyler Murray

He’s baaaacck. Kyler Murray‘s 21-day window has been opened for his return from IR, and he logged a full practice on Wednesday. The initial report suggests he could return in two weeks, but it’s much more likely he waits until three weeks from now when the Cardinals return home and face the Falcons. Prepare for the return, and trade for Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson

Conclusion

Week over week, we’ve been paying attention to the right details and will continue to refine our process as we learn lessons from our losses. By continuing to attack the right matchups, and following the right usage and efficiency trends, we’ll continue to DOMINATE our fantasy matchups and DFS lineups. Happy hunting!