Eight weeks into the NFL season, DFS grinders now have a significant data sample to examine ahead of each week. Looking to Week 9, advanced stats and metrics point to a few distinct edges we can exploit in this slate of games. Here are a few value plays and GPP targets for the DraftKings’ Week 9 Main Slate.
Derek Carr ($5,500) – Oakland Raiders
With a wide range of quarterback options on the Week 9 slate, Derek Carr stands out in the mid-price range. Carr has performed well above expectation in 2019, with a 78.6-percent (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) True Completion Percentage. Standing behind an offensive line the with a 90.8-percent (No. 1) Protection Rate, Carr has plenty of time to find Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams in the open field.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diOdJG91wQQ
This week, Carr and the Oakland Raiders face a porous Detroit Lions secondary. The Lions currently allow a league-high 289.7 passing yards per game to opposing offenses. In their most recent games, they allowed Daniel Jones and Kirk Cousins and to throw for 322 and 338 passing yards respectively. With a strong matchup and efficiency on his side, Carr is a solid value quarterback on the Week 9 slate.
Le’Veon Bell ($7,700) – New York Jets
With Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook priced at $10,000 and $9,500 respectively, the running back position requires close attention this week. At $7,700, Le’Veon Bell provides a similar touch projection in this spot. Bell currently owns a 98.3-percent (No. 1) Snap Share , with an 84.8-percent (No. 4) Opportunity Share. While Bell’s massive workload hasn’t translated into box score production, he performs well in most efficiency metrics. His 37 Evaded Tackles ranks tenth in the NFL.
Check out Le’Veon Bell on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Looking at matchup, Bell and the Dolphins face the Miami Dolphins this week. Playing as five point favorites, game script points towards an elevated workload for Bell. The Dolphins also allow 160.4 (No. 31) rushing yards per game to enemy offenses. Already averaging 15.6 carries per game, Bell looks capable of eclipsing those marks in this game.
Mark Walton ($4,500) – Miami Dolphins
With Kenyan Drake moving over to Arizona prior to the trade deadline, Mark Walton stepped up as Miami’s feature back in Week 8. Walton handled 88-percent of Miami’s snaps, along with 11 carries and another six targets. Drake leaves behind a sizable 51.3-percent Opportunity Share, bringing intrigue to Walton’s situation. A pass catching back at the University of Miami, Walton entered the NFL with an 8.9-percent (66th-percentile) College Target Share.
Mark Walton Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
This week, Miami faces the New York Jets as only 5-point underdogs. The Jets rank well in most defensive metrics, but are among the most banged up defenses in the NFL. On top of trading Leonard Williams, they will play this contest without any of their top five linebackers. While the Dolphins look like a fantasy situation to avoid in the long term, Walton presents an interesting salary saving option in Week 9.
Odell Beckham ($6,600) – Cleveland Browns
Egregiously priced, Odell Beckham ranks 11th in targets (61) and Air Yards (722) despite already having his bye. Beckham is playing as the focal point of Cleveland’s offense and owns a 2.11 (No. 6) Target Separation mark. While his 488 receiving yards rank 19th, Beckham continues to provide Baker Mayfield a reliable and open target down the field.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rycXH-DbRPA
Another reason to play Beckham, aside from his price and efficiency, is that the Browns face the Broncos this week. Denver ranks above average in most defensive metrics, but have faced few quarterbacks of consequence. In their last three games, they benefited from defending Jacoby Brissett, Matt Moore and Ryan Tannehill. While Mayfield brings concerns himself, Beckham remains more than capable of exploiting this matchup.
Keenan Allen ($6,400) – LA Chargers
Another mispriced receiver, Keenan Allen enters Week 9 at $6,400. To this point, he has recorded 81 (No. 4) targets and 949 (No. 3) Air Yards. Unlike Beckham, Allen performs poorly in most efficiency metrics. However, his overall 27.0-percent Target Share ranks sixth in the NFL, keeping him in the DFS conversation.
This week, the Chargers play a surging Green Bay Packers team. The Packers rank middle-of-the-pack in most pass defense metrics, but this game brings a 48-point total. One of the higher projected scoring games on the slate, Allen provides solid target volume at $6,400.
Curtis Samuel ($4,300) – Carolina Panthers
Looking at bargain bin receivers, Curtis Samuel stands out above the rest with secure volume in Carolina’s offense. So far this season, Samuel has notched 54 (No. 20) targets and 796 (No. 6) Air Yards. Samuel’s volume remains consistent as well, with at least six targets in his last six games.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EfGdYnbKh0
Looking at matchup, Samuel faces an average Tennessee Titans secondary. The Titans allowed Jameis Winston and Philip Rivers to pass for 301 and 329 passing yards respectively in their last two games. With Adoree’ Jackson banged up, Tennessee’s secondary provides a sneaky, exploitable matchup for Samuel.
Zach Ertz ($4,700) – Philadelphia Eagles
Priced well below the group of tight ends at the top, Zach Ertz remains Philadelphia’s target leader with 64. In fact, his 7.9 targets per game rank fourth among tight ends, while his 75.4 air yards per game rank third. While Ertz leads the position with six drops, his target volume remains secure enough to target him in DFS.
As for matchup, Ertz and the Eagles face a stout Chicago Bears defense. However, DeSean Jackson‘s potential return may draw attention away from Ertz in the middle of the field. Either way, his target volume keeps him in play at the tight end position this week.
