Thirteen weeks into the NFL season, DFS grinders now have a significant data sample to examine ahead of each week. Looking to Week 14, advanced stats and metrics point to a few distinct edges we can exploit in this slate of games. Here are a few value plays and GPP targets for the DraftKings’ Week 14 Main Slate.
Lamar Jackson ($7,400) – Baltimore Ravens
A DFS cheat code, Lamar Jackson enters Week 14 with an absurd $7,400 price tag on DraftKings. Jackson currently ranks ninth in the NFL with 977 rushing yards and has the highest floor at the quarterback position. Last week, he passed for only 105 yards and still finished with 26.3 points on DraftKings. Jackson has improved as a passer this season, with a 105.7 (No. 7 among qualified quarterbacks) True Passer Rating and 8.2 (No. 6) Adjusted Yards per Attempt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-QsWVB3jvQ
Jackson draws a strong Buffalo Bills defense in Week 14. Even if the matchup mattered, the Bills remain more vulnerable to enemy rushing attacks. On the year, Buffalo ranks 14th in rushing yards allowed per game (104.2), but third against the pass (195.8). Baltimore enters this contest as 5.5-point favorites over the Bills, suggesting another run-heavy, Jackson-centric offensive approach. Extremely cheap given the context of the slate, Jackson is a solid play across all formats this weekend.
Kenyan Drake ($5,200) – Arizona Cardinals
Even with David Johnson and Chase Edmonds healthy in Week 13, Kenyan Drake continued to dominate work in the Cardinals offense. In Week 13, Drake played 85.5-percent of Arizona’s offensive snaps. Drake also out-carried Johnson 13-5 and out-targeted the veteran 5-2. Notably, Johnson did not receive a touch until Arizona trailed 34-0.
Looking to Week 14, the Cardinals find themselves facing a stout Pittsburgh Steelers run defense. Positively for Drake, the Cardinals continue to involve their backs in the receiving game. Drake’s 59 targets rank ninth in the NFL, creating a potential avenue for success. In recent weeks, the Steelers have shown slight vulnerability to enemy backs in the receiving game. Ultimately, Drake remains a solid GPP target based on volume and price.
Devonta Freeman ($5,400) – Atlanta Falcons
Returning from injury in Week 13, Devonta Freeman played 77.6-percent of Atlanta’s offensive snaps, while receiving 17 carries and five targets. Freeman looked healthy, forcing six missed tackles on his opportunities. He hasn’t always performed this season, posting a 16.9-percent (No. 47 ) Juke Rate, but his recent success provides a reason for optimism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwcqx3Q19lU&t=21s
This week, Freeman and the Falcons face a struggling Carolina Panthers team. The Panthers currently rank 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5). Last week alone, this Panthers team allowed both Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson to record 129 and 99 rushing yards respectively. Coming in as three-point favorites, game script projects to favor Freeman in this spot.
Tyreek Hill ($8,100) – Kansas City Chiefs
The ultimate contrarian play this week, Tyreek Hill brings his elite volume to a high-totaled game against the New England Patriots. Given the matchup, Hill projects to draw lowered ownership. However, Hill bested 100 receiving yards in three previous matchups against the Patriots, scoring a touchdown in two. Bringing a 2.25 (No. 3) Target Separation mark and 3.10 (No. 3) Yards per Pass Route, Hill makes an elite DFS play in any matchup.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rF0kUnQkj0g
Hill has bested this New England secondary in the past. The Patriots have also shown vulnerability in recent weeks and may play without Jason McCourty again in Week 14. Last week, Deshaun Watson managed 234 passing yards and three aerial scores against this secondary. With Hill remaining arguably the most dynamic offensive weapon in football, he makes a strong contrarian GPP-play here.
Courtland Sutton ($6,400) – Denver Broncos
While Courtland Sutton dealt with low target volume from Drew Lock last week, he made the most of his opportunities. Sutton posted four catches for 74 yards and a pair of scores on only five targets. On the year, he now ranks fourth overall in Deep Targets (22), while pacing the entire NFL with a +62.3-percent Target Premium. While Lock certainly remains a concern, Sutton’s efficiency creates a potential buying opportunity.
Check out Courtland Sutton on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Looking at matchup, Sutton draws a struggling Houston Texans secondary. Houston ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per game (262.9) and Sutton projects to face off against 35-year old Johnathan Joseph. So far this season, Joseph has allowed 562 (No. 50) receiving yards in his coverage, with a 108.3 (No. 45) Passer Rating Allowed. Drawing a winnable matchup here, Sutton is a contrarian play worth targeting this week.
Parris Campbell ($3,200) – Indianapolis Colts
Finally returning from a multi-week hand injury, Parris Campbell looks ready to reassert himself into Indianapolis offense. Currently missing T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron, the Colts sorely miss a speed element. While Campbell only has limited snaps on his NFL profile to date, his college profile makes him interesting this week. Coming out of Ohio State, Campbell ran the 40-yard dash in 4.31 seconds, certainly giving Indy that speed element. Prior to the broken hand, Campbell played 73.3-percent of the offensive snaps in Week 9.
Parris Campbell Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
This week, Campbell and the Colts draw a pass-funneling Tampa Bay secondary. The Buccaneers rank second in rushing yards allowed per game (76.2), but 31st in passing yards allowed per game (281.8). With this game also totaled at 47-points, both offenses project to feature their respective passing attacks. Priced at $3,200, Campbell provides intrigue as a complete punt in GPPs.
Ian Thomas ($2,500) – Carolina Panthers
With Greg Olsen leaving Week 13 with a concussion, Ian Thomas stepped up to play 47-percent of Carolina’s snaps. Priced at the minimum ($2,500), Thomas has directly replaced Olsen in this offense in the past. Last year, Thomas averaged 82-percent of Carolina’s snaps with a 16.8-percent Target Share without Olsen. In that expanded role, Thomas ranked seventh in the NFL with a 1.69 Target Separation mark.
This week, Thomas faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that plays average tight end defense. While they rank middle-of-the-pack in most metrics, the Falcons showed cracks against the position in recent weeks. Last week, they allowed Jared Cook to notch 85 receiving yards on three catches. Priced at the bare minimum, Thomas remains capable of paying off against mediocre Falcons’ defense this week.
