Eleven weeks into the NFL season, DFS grinders now have a significant data sample to examine ahead of each week. Looking to Week 12, advanced stats and metrics point to a few distinct edges we can exploit in this slate of games. Here are a few value plays and GPP targets for the DraftKings’ Week 12 Main Slate.
Jameis Winston ($6,200) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While Jameis Winston is among the NFL’s more erratic passers, his turnovers cause little damage for fantasy purposes. Now with five straight games over 20 DraftKings points, his ceiling cannot be ignored. Right now, the Buccaneers rank No. 1 in the league with 44.2 Team Pass Plays per Game, and Winston ranks No. 1 with 68 Deep Ball Attempts. While this has led to a league-leading 28 Interceptable Passes, it also leads to big fantasy days for Winston and his receivers.
This week, the Buccaneers face an improved Atlanta defense. While the Falcons have stopped the Saints and Panthers in recent weeks, this unit continues to rank 27th in passing yards allowed per game (261.7). In particular, Mike Evans draws a strong matchup against Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed 707 (No. 77 among qualified cornerbacks) receiving yards in his coverage this season. Bringing one of the highest floors in fantasy football, Winston remains a value at $6,200.
Alvin Kamara ($8,200) – New Orleans Saints
Now two weeks removed from his ankle injury, Alvin Kamara again squashed any workload concerns in Week 11. For the second consecutive week, he played at least 63-percent of the team’s offensive snaps. Essentially functioning as Drew Brees‘ number two receiver, Kamara has notched eleven and ten targets in back-to-back weeks for the Saints. Efficiency-wise, Kamara’s 40.3-percent Juke Rate leads all qualified running backs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTO2Zx0yWio&t=32s
The Saints face a weak Carolina Panthers run defense in Week 12. This unit currently ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed to opposing offenses per game (128.4). While Brian Hill flopped in this spot last week, Green Bay running backs combined for 156 rushing yards in Week 10. With an elite receiving floor and massive ceiling, Kamara continues to provide value across game formats in DFS.
Phillip Lindsay ($5,200) – Denver Broncos
Earning a larger workload in Denver, Phillip Lindsay out-snapped Royce Freeman 64-percent to 30-percent last week. Lindsay also out-carried Freeman 16-8 in a game that Denver kept competitive. From an efficiency standpoint, this is the right move for Denver. Lindsay’s +0.2 (No. 34) Production Premium dwarfs Freeman’s -15.3 (No. 51) mark.
Check out Phillip Lindsay on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
While Denver enters Week 12 as a four-point road underdog, Buffalo provides a sneaky good matchup for opposing running backs. The Bills play with eight-man boxes at the lowest rate in football. This affords running backs room to run in order to stop the pass. They currently rank 17th in rushing yards allowed per game but third against the pass, setting up Lindsay to take advantage of his elevated role.
Odell Beckham ($7,000) – Cleveland Browns
Among the biggest buy-lows in fantasy football, Odell Beckham continues to under-perform elite volume. In Cleveland’s last two weeks alone, Beckham holds 59-percent of Cleveland’s Air Yards and 31-percent of their targets. Despite barely clearing ten fantasy points in each of those games, Beckham remains efficient with his targets. He owns a 1.99 (No. 8) Target Separation rank, creating an easy target for Baker Mayfield in the pass game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECRxd_lHTDQ
Cleveland faces the struggling Miami Dolphins in Week 12. In particular, Beckham should run a majority of his routes against Ken Crawley. While Crawley has played limited snaps this year, he was among the league’s worst defensive backs in 2018. In particular, he allowed a 149.8 Passer Rating in his coverage. With Beckham finally seeing volume, he is more than capable of exploiting Crawley’s coverage.
D.J. Chark ($6,400) – Jacksonville Jaguars
One of the NFL’s top young wide receivers, D.J. Chark recorded 104 receiving yards and a pair of scores on 15 targets last week. In Jacksonville’s last three games, Chark holds 40-percent of the team’s Air Yards and 28-percent of the targets. From an efficiency perspective, he has a +36.6-percent (No. 6) Target Premium.
D.J. Chark Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
This week, Chark finds himself facing the Tennessee Titans. With Tennessee recently placing Malcolm Butler on injured reserve, Chark finds himself matched up against LeShaun Sims. He played well on limited snaps this year, but may struggle with Chark’s 4.30 speed. Sims ran the 40-yard dash in 4.53 seconds, giving him a 97.8 (65th-percentile) Speed Score. Working with elite athleticism and usage, Chark is a GPP dart throw worth considering.
N’Keal Harry ($3,300) – New England Patriots
With Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett both banged up, N’Keal Harry is poised for an increased role in New England. Seeing his first regular season game action in Week 11, Harry played on 43-percent of New England’s snaps and received four targets. Among the top wide receiver prospects in the country, Harry left Arizona State with a 43.9-percent (89th-percentile) College Dominator Rating and a 18.7 (95th-percentile) Breakout Age.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBKt1hDHxtE
This week, the Patriots face the Dallas Cowboys in one of the week’s more exciting games. Dallas has struggled on defense lately, allowing at least 27 points to the Lions and Vikings in consecutive weeks. Priced at $3,300, Harry’s volume puts him in consideration as a punt play this week in DFS.
Vance McDonald ($3,500) – Pittsburgh Steelers
Without Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce among other tight ends on the main slate, the position looks barren in Week 12. With little other value on the board, Vance McDonald stands out as a potential price play. Pittsburgh currently projects to play without JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner in this contest, potentially elevating his volume. McDonald has played on 96-percent of Pittsburgh’s snaps in back-to-back weeks, seeing seven targets in both games.
This week, Pittsburgh faces a winless Cincinnati Bengals team that struggles to defend all positions. While they primarily struggle to defend the run, this team also ranks 24th in passing yardage allowed per game (258.1). Looking at a potentially elevated target share, McDonald is a value play this week in DFS.
