PlayerProfiler is home to the award winning redraft rankings and tools. Our Player Rankings are second to none, and the World Famous Draft Kit contains detailed player write ups and cheat sheets to help You dominate fantasy drafts! Check it out. Below, Joel Ybarra highlights quarterback ADP values available in Underdog, FFPC and Redraft fantasy leagues.
In all fantasy formats – Underdog, FFPC and Redraft – we are looking to leverage ADP to our advantage. We win fantasy championships by drafting sure studs at the top of drafts and then filling out our rosters with late round ADP values. To manipulate ADP in such a way, it is important to understand the things that push ADP down. ADP is built off perception. Uncertainty, ambiguity, unknowns like suspensions and negative offseason narratives are all factors that act up on ADP and provide value deltas. We should target those players with suppressed ADPs, especially when there are other real factors that will encourage production for those players in the coming season. Below, we go through the big ADP wins from 2023 at QB, identifying what suppressed ADPs and led to significant value gains. Then we identify some deeply discounted quarterbacks in 2024 drafts.
2023 ADP Values at Quarterback
Dak Prescott | ADP: QB13, PPG Finish: QB4
Dak Prescott missed five games in the 2022 season due to a thumb fracture on his throwing hand. He had the thumb surgically repaired in-season and was originally projected to miss six to eight weeks. He came back in five and had his worst fantasy season since 2017. Even so, he finished as the QB13 with 17.8 fantasy PPG in 2022. Outside of that, he has finished as a top-10 QB with 20-plus PPG every season since 2019, including last season, when he ended up at QB4.
Brock Purdy | ADP: QB22, PPG Finish: QB6
Brock Purdy was the victim of a negative offseason narrative that he was a system quarterback and would not keep up the production over a full season. There is no other explanation for his 2023 ADP. He scored 18.1 PPG down the stretch at the end of the 2022 season (Weeks 13 to 18) when he took over the offense from an injured Jimmy Garoppolo.
Last season, Purdy finished with 19.2 PPG and was a legitimate MVP contender.
Kyler Murray | ADP: QB29, PPG Finish: QB9
Kyler Murray played in only eight games last season after recovering from an ACL tear. It is no surprise his 2023 ADP was so low, especially with the offseason narrative that the Cardinals would be tanking. Murray returned in Week 10 and was the QB9 over the remainder of the regular season, He returned value for those who were willing to wait out the early part of the season, posting a QB4 week with 24.7 PPG in Week 17.
CJ Stroud | ADP: QB29, Finished QB7 in PPG
C.J. Stroud‘s ADP was depressed entering 2023 simply because he was a rookie and unknown. We should not count on there being another Stroud in 2024, but it is worth it to take some stabs on rookie QBs at their values. There are three rookie QBs available at QB26 or later in best ball: Drake Maye (QB26), J.J. McCarthy (QB28) and Bo Nix (QB30). Can any of them be C.J. Stroud? Probably not, but they could return value at ADP.
2024 Deep ADP Discounts at Quarterback
Jayden Daniels | Underdog ADP: QB12 (102 overall), FFPC ADP: QB11 (116 overall)
Jayden Daniels ran for 1,133 yards last season at LSU. He also posted the best single-season Passing Efficiency mark on record (since 1956 per sports-reference.com): 208.0. He is one of a few quarterbacks with the skillset and athleticism (4.50 40-yard dash) to break fantasy, and he is going as QB11 or QB12 after pocket passers Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love.
He’s a good bet to best all of their fantasy production and, at cost, is one of the best values in fantasy this summer.
Justin Herbert | Underdog ADP: QB17 (132 overall), FFPC ADP: QB17 (157 overall)
Justin Herbert has spent one season outside the top-10 QBs in fantasy PPG. It was in 2022 when he was suffering from fractured rib cartilage. That didn’t prevent him from throwing for 4,739 yards. What slowed his fantasy production that season was the lack of TD production (20 passing TDs). We know he’s capable of throwing for 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns because he’s already done both (in separate seasons). He will, at the very least, return ADP value as the No. 17 QB off the board. With an upgraded coaching staff, he may very well come up with another top-five season at QB.
Kirk Cousins | Underdog ADP: QB18 (147 overall), FFPC QB18 (166 overall)
Kirk Cousins‘ value was already suppressed due to concerns about him recovering from an Achilles tear. His ADP took another hit when the Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr., who drafters assume gives Cousins increased benching risk.
Cousins is down at QB18. He normally hovers around QB12 in PPG and was the QB8 through eight games last season. He will not have a significant downgrade in offensive weaponry in Atlanta, especially with elite pass-catching back Bijan Robinson in the fray.
JJ McCarthy | Underdog ADP: QB29 (202 overall), FFPC ADP: QB27 (326 overall)
J.J. McCarthy’s ADP is enticing, especially considering the weapons he inherits in Minnesota and a system designed by Kevin O’Connell. Fellow rookie Drake Maye is going ahead of McCarthy on Underdog – probably due to his stackability on that platform. Maye owns better NFL Draft capital, but also has higher bust potential in 2024 due to an unknown offensive system and a far inferior set of weapons. McCarthy has sizeable advantages on both counts.
Russell Wilson | Underdog ADP: 31 (209 overall), FFPC ADP: QB29 (337 overall)
If you want to be a true late round QB-er, Russell Wilson is your target. Wilson’s value is being suppressed by the ambiguity in the Pittsburgh QB room. The consensus is that Justin Fields will take snaps as the starter at some point in the coming season, but unlike Fields, Wilson offers consistency to a Steelers organization that values consistency.
Wilson is going off the board on Underdog as the last starting QB other than Gardner Minshew (who could easily lose the starting job). That doesn’t make sense because Wilson has never finished a season outside the top-18 QBs in PPG. He is going to rush for around 300 yards and three scores, and is the ultimate value play at QB.
Read Joel’s breakdown of QBs/WRs getting an upgrade in the coming season: QB/WR Chemistry | Ascending Fantasy WRs and QBs Who Will Elevate Each Other in 2024
